INVESTEDD

Quality names and a DIary. Hood Economist with Hedge Fund Dreams. Stock/Geopolitical News + Events.
SPY - TLT - GLD - USO
*Not Financial Advice*

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

Weekend Market Recap:
Markets closed mixed. Tech and semis dragged $SPY and $QQQ lower, but $IWM and value held strong. Oil dropped hard on cooling geopolitical heat.

Quiet weekend overall. Focus is on the tech rotation, oil stabilizing, and next week’s data.

Key Events This Week:
Thursday, July 2: Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate (big labor market read)
Friday, July 3: ISM Services PMI (markets close early for holiday)
Wednesday, July 8: FOMC Minutes
Holiday-shortened trading — Independence Day observed Friday, July 3

Futures Open:
/ES ~7,438 (+0.5%)
/CL ~70.10
/GC ~4,078–4,100
/ZB ~114.00–114.10

Hot Names: $AVGO, $NVDA, $MU on AI/semiconductor action. Watch small-cap rotation and energy names after the oil pullback.

Board Takeaway: Rotation is still in play. Stay disciplined on levels, watch payrolls for Fed signals, and hedge energy. Bullish bias holds, but be selective. Trade the setup, not the hype.
#PersonalFinance

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

Yen $YCL at its weakest vs USD since 1986.

$USD/ $JPY hit 162 — 39-year high.

Higher US rates vs Japan's low rates drove carry trades that sold Yen for years.
Exporters gain. Consumers pay more for imports.

Lesson: Big rate gaps push currencies to generational extremes before central banks act.
#PersonalFinance

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time ever today.

It rebounded after last week’s tech selloff, helped by $GOOGL debut in the index.

Markets set new highs through recoveries and rotations — not without dips along the way.

Long-term stock growth compounds by staying invested through the swings. $DJI $SPY
#PersonalFinance

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

$SPY +1.65% to 741
$GLD -1.3%
$USO +2%
$TLT flat

US-Iran de-escalation sparks tech rebound. Risk-on day, VIX down hard.

Gainers: Tech/Alphabet/Tesla.
Losers: Chips.
Volume in geo/energy.

Tomorrow:
Thin holiday volume. SPY 740 key. Light earnings. Futures mixed, Asia cautious.
#PersonalFinance

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

$SPY Flushed to 732.09 on heavy volume, then reversed clean and reclaimed the range. Now +1.31% at 738.55. Buyers stepped in hard at that low — no hesitation.

Macro driver: Iran de-escalation hopes after recent strikes. Ceasefire signals flipped the tape risk-on in this holiday-shortened week. That’s the bid you’re seeing.

• $GLD -1.17% at 369 (gold giving back haven premium)
• $USO +1.87% near 107.5 (oil holding geopolitical bid)
• $TLT flat at 87.36

June jobs Thursday. This reversal shows exactly where real bids sit. Process stays simple — watch if they defend 735-736 into the print. Order flow over opinion.

#PersonalFinance

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

Condensed Institutional Flow

Hedge funds are rotating inside the bull:
• ETFs crushing it: 2026 YTD inflows >$1T. Latest week +$92B ETF creation + $56B equity inflows. US large-cap core leading.

• GS Prime Book action: Hedge funds buying US stocks at fastest pace in 6 months. Heavy rotation into Financials. Trimming Semiconductors.

• COT: Real-money institutions still strongly net long S&P futures. Specs trimming.

Bottom line: Healthy rebalancing, not a top. Passive flows keep supporting the tape while smart money rotates out of crowded semis into financials/cyclicals.

#PersonalFinance

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

Market Open | June 29, 2026 — 6:30am PT
• $SPY
Open: 736.70 (+1.06%)
Prior close: 728.99 Strong gap up vs futures
Catalyst: None

• $GLD
Open: ~374 (+0.3%)
Prior close: 373.63 Mild positive gap
Catalyst: None

• $USO
Open: ~106 (+0.5%)
Prior close: 105.48 Positive gap
Catalyst: None

• $TLT
Open: ~87.30 (flat)
Prior close: 87.36 Flat
Catalyst: None

#PersonalFinance

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

🚨 Trump says Iran requested a meeting tomorrow in Doha, Qatar — Iranian side says no talks set after weekend Gulf attacks.

Why it matters: Hormuz carries major world oil flows. Less fighting there often means lower $USO and steadier $SPY.

#PersonalGrowth

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

PRE-MARKET BRIEFING | MON JUN 29 2026 | 5:30AM ET 📈

FUTURES & OVERNIGHT
• $ES +0.87% at 7,466 (solid gap up)
• $NQ +1.23% at 29,730 (tech leading)
• Overnight: Steady climb, no major reversals
• $DXY 101.24 ↓ slightly
• $10Y yield 4.39% ↑

MACRO & NEWS CATALYSTS
• Quiet overnight, light earnings flow
• No major US data today
• Week ahead focus: Nike and others
• Geopolitical backdrop stable

RISK & SENTIMENT
• $VIX 18.4 ↓ (low fear)
• Put/call neutral-bullish
• RISK-ON — strong futures, low vol, positive gaps = clear confidence into open

PRE-MARKET MOVERS
Gapping Up:
• $CMCSA +22% — strong reaction
• $CHTR +21% — cable momentum
• $PLTR +4% — continued strength
• $AXON +4% — clean move
• $AMAT +3.7% — semi tailwind

Gapping Down: Limited major liquid names. Upside bias dominates.

#PersonalFinance

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

Hedge funds pushed net short bets on Brent crude to ~$18B — highest in at least 10 years and tripled since March.

$7.5B sold the week ending June 16, with fresh new shorts driving most of it. 7 straight weeks of selling.
$USO $XLE

Fresh shorts (new bearish bets) drove most of the move rather than simple long liquidation. At multi-year extremes, this is the type of crowding the top flow accounts flag as creating asymmetric squeeze risk
#PersonalFinance

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) week isn’t a jobs lottery—it’s the liquidity reset that recalibrates real yields and separates traders positioned for the structural AI capex cycle from those chasing cyclical noise.

Last week snapshot & drivers:
- $SPY: $728.99 (-2.5% WoW) — equity profit-taking after highs - $USO: $106 (+3% WoW) — momentum on supply tightness and geopolitics
- $GLD: $373.63 (-4% WoW) — gold consolidation
- $TLT: $87.16 (flat WoW) — Treasuries range-bound

This week key events:
- Mon: Light (Dallas Fed)
- Tue: ADP Employment, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed’s Kevin Warsh speech (policy tone)
- Wed: JOLTS, Consumer Confidence
- Thu: June NFP (primary driver — consensus 120-170k jobs, 4.3% unemployment)

Earnings: - Tue: Nike ($NKE ) — consumer/retail health news

Trending macro themes: Liquidity reset: NFP + Warsh will force rate expectations and real yields to adjust. Soft labor data supports easier financial conditions and AI multiples; hot print risks real rate pressure and DXY support.

Positioning lens: Core overweight AI infrastructure names — use post-NFP dips for accumulation Tactical USO for inflation pass-through and supply dynamics TLT/gold as volatility buffers rather than primary holdings

#stockinvesting

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

$SPY

• Range: 726.86-736.53 (opened 728.95)
• Status: Recovering mid-session
• Key Events: U Mich sentiment 49.5, inventories/trade data, Kashkari speech
• Watch: Tech/AI flows, buybacks

#stockmarket

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

Trump warns UK: Drop digital services tax(DST) on US tech or face big tariffs on British exports. Pressure mounting—Canada already caved. More countries reviewing DSTs. Trade heat rising.

$INTU: $268.37 (+5.2% today)
52w: $252.84–$813.70 | Mkt cap $73.4B | P/E 15.4x | P/B 3.4x | Yield 1.8%
YTD: ~-60% from 2025 highs. Near lows after TurboTax/AI selloff.

Value Eval: Analyst avg PT ~$480 (significant upside). Near-term risks in tax segment; long-term recurring revenue intact. Appears undervalued opportunity. Minimal direct DST tariff impact.
#stockmarket

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

JUNE 2026 THESIS: AI Supercycle + Resilient Economy = Bullish H2

Despite hawkish Fed signals, sticky ~3.3% inflation, and the recent tech/chip selloff…

The data is screaming opportunity:

✅ May jobs +172k | Unemployment steady at 4.3% → Labor market is ROCK solid
✅ AI capex boom & S&P 500 earnings growth of 13-15%+ still fully intact
✅ Iran peace deal → Oil prices crashed → Fresh inflation tailwind building

This is NOT 2022.

Recent dips in quality AI names and semis? Healthy consolidation and a gift for those with conviction.

Smart money is positioning for new highs by year-end.

Who else is buying this dip with me? Drop your top AI or semi play below 👇

#Stockmarket

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

$MSFT I hope no one is trying to time the market..
#StockMarket

[INVESTEDD @INVESTEDD]

@aestheticsguyy