Tony Walkow

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

What is the scenario for Taxpayers after the IPO of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

@FNMA @FMCC

@potus
@realDonaldTrump
@SecScottBessent
@howardlutnick
@pulte
@BillAckmann
@michaelburry

There are a lot of opinions about the IPO of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (F2) but whatever you think personally the reality is that they already repaid $300 billion which was discussed in many posts already.
But almost nobody discusses the financial situation AFTER the IPO of the GSEs.
Naysayers state that an IPO would steal from the taxpayer but lets do a short financial reality check.
If the GSEs are fully capitalized, the SPS are canceled and the Government exercises all their warrants there will be around 10 B shares of F2.
Assuming F2 will continue to make an annual profit of $30B they will pay taxes to the government (therefore the taxpayers!) of around $6 B (assuming 20% total corporate tax rate) per year.
From the remaining $24 B they could pay theoretically the full amount as a dividend because the F2s are fully capitalized.
Since the government owns 79.9% of the F2 the dividend for the taxpayers/government would be $19.2 B annually.
So after an successful IPO the F2s would be paying about $25.2 B annually to the taxpayer (currently they are paying nothing).
So in the next 10 years the F2s would pay the taxpayers about $250 B, this would be a great investment for the government / taxpayers and obviously not a steal from the latter.
So in my opinion the opponents of an IPO have ulterior motives but for sure they don’t care about the taxpayer. An IPO would create a WIN-WIN situation for all stakeholders but especially the Government.

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@scottfelsenthal AMD - I bought at 1.93 and sold at 3 US$, now over 450 US$.
Argentina GDP linked bonds - I bought at 0.23% and sold at 1% - now trading at 12%.

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@ThinkorSwim94 @MsVeilMoney I bought at 1.93 US$ but sold around 3 US$ 😡

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@InvestInAssets FNMA, FMCC, OKLO, IRD, OTLK.

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@SmithtonJames @NUCLRGOLF 3 Albatrosses is worth 30 Hole in onees 👍. From the latter I had 18 but only 1 Albatross, so you are lucky guy.

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

Theoretically you might be right - I would still prefer the easier way at the moment where current shareholders would get between 50 US$ and 75 US$ now and I could diversify the returns compared of a theoretical value of 100-125 US$ with an unclear structure for current shareholders. The problem at least for me is that I waited to long already and I positioned / added/oversized my FNMA/FMCC position last September 2025 after the IPO was announced for November 2025.

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

Of course I read the full white paper, and I agree it could be done quite quickly if everybody agrees - but for me personal I could see some problems for implementation and delays as well as tax implications depending on where you live.
The other, boring path would be easier (just a quick announcement from President Trump, Secretary Bessent and director Pulte) and it could unlock the same value for current shareholders (spin off USFINTECH later) immediately and there would be no (possible) loopholes.

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@NajmElie Sorry, but your numbers are not correct - currently there are only 1.2 B shares outstanding. Or did you mean share account IF treasury exercises warrants. If they don't exercise Fannie Mae can go up to 400 US$ per share.

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@miradreaamy 50

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

I put my money where my mouth is and bought Fnma and fmcc. But I am a long term investor and not a day trader. You can check my profile at tipranks (avg success rate per trade is 100.2%). Of course I would be very happy if they release them this year but I will be not starving if it takes one year longer. So only day traders would take your bet and I am not one of them.

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@JGTradesworth @JonOksenholt Did you really read the balance sheet - they made almost double the money per share - problem is they grew to fast and need even with a 2.5% ERCF capital rule still capital - which will take up to 36 month depending on the whole think. Long term much higher value

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

For me it would cost much more than 10K if they don't release it this year - I was owning and tradings the GSEs since 2010 - but after they announced the IPO date as November 2025 in August 2025 I did what I never recommend to anybody - I went all in - the opportunity costs of the positions I sold for this are/were stupidly high - I sold as an example a huge Teva position between 13 and 17 ( now trading at 34+). And yes, Ackman is super smart and successful and more important, at least in my view, an integer person.

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@nicosintichakis I know this rule applies for professional investors, but how about members of congress and senators or even President Trump?

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@NUCLRGOLF B

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@SecScottBessent It shows real class to recognize someone you had personal problems with in the past (B. Pulte). And it also shows that the current administration is g focused on results and that for them results matter much more than their private egos. Utmost respect Secretary Bessent!

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@linadreaamy 190

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@NUCLRGOLF All.

[Tony Walkow @IQInvestment68]

@howardlutnick @allison_lutnick Congratulations!