Alpha

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

Sry for low activity on twitter, VIP has been eating good tho

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@tak_01_ aint reading all that

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@tak_01_ @qwasdwerqwer L take, they take one game 2/3 times

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@drewlevin Yo! I do those. DM for details

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@tak_01_ holy nice

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@tak_01_ stop leaking our secrets!!!

[Miko Punto @MPunto97]

Today, a Polymarket user reportedly made ~$22,000 from a single CS2 match — not by predicting the winner, but by exploiting a rule.

There might be a serious issue in Polymarket’s CS2 markets.

It revolves around one specific rule:
👉 If a match ends in a forfeit → payout is split 50/50.

At first glance, this sounds reasonable. But in practice, it completely breaks the risk model.

Example:

If one side has $90 bet on it and the other side has $10, there is $100 total in action.

If the match is forfeited → the $100 is split evenly:
→ $50 to each side.

That means:
The person who only bet $10 on the underdog walks away with $50.
→ a $40 profit from a match that was never even played.

This is where the problem starts.
Right now, there are many open / “pay-to-play” CS2 LAN tournaments:
• anyone can register a team
• skill levels vary massively
• many teams are extremely low quality

We’re already seeing cases where:
• teams register
• never show up
• and forfeit their matches

At the same time, these matches are listed on Polymarket — and these teams are always massive underdogs.

So what happens?
If you bet on these weak teams:
→ you don’t need them to win
→ you don’t even need them to play
You just need them to forfeit.
And when they do:
→ Polymarket settles 50/50
→ underdog bettors profit massively

This creates a very dangerous incentive structure.
Because realistically:
The players themselves — or people close to them — often know in advance if a team is not going to show up.
At that point, this isn’t just a market inefficiency.
It opens the door to extremely easy manipulation:
→ you don’t need to fix a match
→ you just don’t show up

In traditional betting markets, forfeits usually result in:
👉 all bets being voided and refunded

Polymarket does NOT do this — and that’s exactly why this exists.

Example:
G2 vs Carrito Spain
Carrito Spain was a massive underdog.
They forfeited the match.
→ market settled 50/50.

This is where the ~$22,000 profit came from.
(Screenshot)

This isn’t about predicting outcomes anymore.
It’s about exploiting a rule.
If this continues, we could see:
• systematic abuse of forfeits
• distorted pricing in low-tier matches
• real integrity risks in open CS2 tournaments

This should be fixed urgently.

At minimum:
forfeits should void the market — not settle 50/50.

RTs appreciated 🙏
Would appreciate visibility on this.

@Polymarket

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@tak_01_ This:

or is the liq too small to even bother extracting a larger edge?

Wouldn't waste time trying to play with funky complex data just to be able to beat soft ass low liq market where you can't scale up properly anyway.

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@tak_01_ Bro misstyped Weibo as BLG..

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@tak_01_ good shit big T

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@aapmut Panossuositus/arvio vinkkeihin olis kova!

[Ataraxia | #ataraxiamaxxing | @Ataraxia_lol]

Good reminder that being knowledgeable about the game doesn't directly correlate with being good at turning your analysis into good bets. True for pretty much every sport.
(Of course Falcons might win but good luck turning that into accurate percentages)

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@AtaraxiaBets easy +1.5 @ 1.90😎

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@tak_01_ you already know mr. Alpha got you with the LOCKS

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@tak_01_ bro this line was @ 40.00 on most softbooks..

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

👀

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@forestwithout Wroooong its a year of KC (dont retweet me if g2 wins pls)

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

@AtaraxiaBets literally an op strat, just argue with everyone

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

Thank you @NIP

[Alpha @IamAlpha_]

eating good lately