jaime

Science, Technology, Cooking, Sports, Stock Market. Founder of Trade IQ

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

@schadjoe If those are the two options Jeremiah Smith please. Would not take arch with 1st overall.

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

@NickSchmidt only focus on the 2000x tbh

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

@kimmonismus It appears they want Gemini to be a harness. Not only for Gemini models and agents but for additional models agents and external sources. That's how I see it at least.

[FZN Joe @JoeyGEX]

"Pain trade is lower yields, lower NDX"

via Krinsky (BTIG)

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

@CFlanders7 Day trades these past months have been far superior to anything I have been holding or trying to build for new swing positions. Confusing tape.

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

Thank you @BigDuke50

[Duke Manyweather @BigDuke50]

.@stephenasmith your comments about Lane were ignorant and disrespectful. Saying afterward that you would never make light of mental health doesn’t erase the way you spoke about Lane.

Lane is my brother. I know the MAN beyond the uniform. You’re speaking with certainty about a decision you don’t have the personal context to explain.

You can assess what his absence means for the Eagles. But suggesting he wouldn’t walk away if they were winning is reckless. A winning record doesn’t tell you whether somebody is okay.

Mental health doesn’t follow the NFL schedule. It ain’t linear. It’s DAILY. A man can commit to a season and later recognize that continuing comes at a cost he can no longer carry. He has every right to act on that.

We ask these men to be accountable to their teammates, coaches, organizations and fans. That responsibility also extends to their children, their families and THEMSELVES.

Think about what your delivery tells the next person who is struggling and afraid to speak up. That their honesty might become material for somebody’s next segment.

Lane doesn’t owe you private details to earn your respect. He told us all what he needed to prioritize. That should have been enough.

You have a massive platform. Carry the responsibility that comes with it. Our world is divided enough

-Duke

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

@NickSchmidt

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

@alphatrends Went long today on the UnR or the 10ema. She looks beautiful.

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

Jon Ratliff, CIA director was in Russia on 8/25.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

A Russian lab worker has died and thousands are in quarantine after a plague outbreak, per Sky News.

The World Health Organisation says the pneumonic form of plague is especially contagious and "can trigger severe epidemics".

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

@rawsalerts

[R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts]

🚨 #BREAKING: Infectious “plague” escapes Siberian lab, kills researcher, Russians begin quarantine.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

Last wk, oil fell 1% w/ lower than expected JOLTS, PCE & NFP. But bonds sold off even more driving 10/30yr ylds to 2002 levels. Equity mkts though were flattish driven by AI infrastructure w/ SOX +3.7%. Breadth worsened to just 25% of the S&P above the 50dma.

The market action on Friday bothered me. Non-farm payrolls came in at 29K vs 90K expected. Bonds initially rallied from oversold levels at the open but ended the day down across the curve from the 3-month to 30 year driving yields higher. The dollar did close lower by $0.16 on Friday but it was still up $0.96 during the week. The USD has surged by over $3 in less than a month and broke above $102 on Thursday.

As I wrote about in my post last Sunday, I am concerned that the Fed is raising, while inflation has remained higher than target with oil prices remaining high. There have been five episodes of ~20%-50% S&P sell-offs since the early 1970s on this combination.

I can now add to that list of concerns a sovereign debt crisis like in 2010 or an LTCM event like in 1998 driven by the combination of a strengthening US dollar and global bond market sell-off.

On the positive side, the AI infrastructure trade added more demand drivers last week. OpenAI introduced their Muse by $META competitor called Dots. $GOOGL previewed their new LLM model Argon that ranks higher than Anthropic and OpenAI on most benchmarks.

At the company level, $NVDA, sounded great during their marketing in NYC. The stock trades at a 15x CY27 PE for guided 70% revenue growth which I think could be revised higher when they report results in mid-November. To me, Nvidia is the best risk adjusted AI trade in the market now that Meta gained 27% in September. In this vein, while the SOX Index is down 10% from 6/22 which was the peak of the momentum trade, Nvidia is up 12%.

On the negative side, I have been watching the Ramp Index of total token spend by businesses for some time to make sure that token growth is outpacing the ASP decline. But after increasing by 9.1x year-to-date through August 2nd, it has been roughly flat to down since then. There has been a 11% combined decline in Anthropic plus OpenAI spend from 8/2-9/27. Meanwhile on a token basis, there was a 11x year-to-date increase through August 2nd with a further 28% increase from Anthropic plus OpenAI since then. Is this the impact of open-weight model pricing?

Finally, the current bi-partisan (amazing they agree on anything) pushback on datacenters could get worse after November 3rd mid-terms if there is a blue wave which is what the current polling data leans towards.

On July 29th, I turned bullish again: “In summary, my view is that we could have seen at least a short-term bottom today with a strong rally ahead of us in the sectors most caught in the latest speedbump.”

On August 23rd, I started to get more cautious again on the overall market with my post, James Carville: “as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” But since then, despite a 54 bps surge in 10yr bond yields, the Fed resuming hiking after 3 years, a 3.2% increase in the USD, the equal-weighted S&P down 5.4% and breadth returning to levels last seen in March, the overall S&P has gained 0.6%.

In summary, I feel like either the bond market (and now the currency markets) are not priced correctly or the stock market isn’t. As a result, I believe in extra prudence. That means being more selective (such as AI infrastructure), having smaller position sizes and a greater than normal amount of cash. Maybe this is the new normal for bond yields vs the stock market PE, but that is not my base case.

Best of luck in the week ahead.

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

@Round_AI_Media

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

@linzy_long_hold Reacher on Amazon Prime.

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

@RichardMoglen @Deepvue NTAP P HPE LITE FLEX ASX there are tons.

[Trade IQ @TheTradeIQ]

Quite the improvement today with 54% of our universe net advancers. $FOTO $SMH take the cake.

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

@Brittbabi

[jaime @IamJ_meeee]

@epictrades1 Sorry for your loss DP 🙏

[aipulsedaily @aipulseda1ly]

Gemini 4 Argon has an insanely low hallucination rate on Artificial Analysis. 15%.

Grok 4.7 is at 29%. GPT-6 Astra 45%. Opus 5.5 59%. Fable 5.1 69%.

The only models below it barely answer anything. None of them get more than 15% right.

It gets fewer answers right than Opus 5.5 on max, 50% against 66%. But when it doesnt know, it says so instead of making something up.

Cant wait to get my hands on it.

[Google @Google]

Today we’re introducing Gemini 4 Argon.

It delivers frontier performance in complex workflows across real-world software engineering, knowledge work, and cybersecurity defense with an industry-leading 1M token output limit.