Ignacio

Bitcoin & Ethereum enthusiastic

[SolanaFloor @SolanaFloor]

🚨JUST IN: Mirae Asset, with more than $1 trillion in client AUM, has issued tokenized funding notes on @Solana through its Hong Kong securities arm under a $3B structured note program.

The issuance was supported by the Solana Foundation and Marketnode.

[Stani @StaniKulechov]

Excited to announce Coinbase Tokenized Stocks are now live on Aave V4 on @base.

Users can borrow USDC against tokenized stocks.

Aave is on a mission to bring the $200T global equities market onchain.

[Stani @StaniKulechov]

Together with @base and @coinbase, we’re bringing lending and borrowing against tokenized stocks onchain.

A $150T+ market ready to run on financial rails powered by @aave.

[Solana @solana]

BREAKING: @JPMorganAM's tokenized money market funds are live on Solana.

MONY and JLTXX are both available to qualified U.S. investors through Morgan Money, with subscriptions, redemptions and token balances handled on one platform.

[Seth @seth_fin]

Bitcoin keeps finding support near its production cost in every major bear market.

Price has touched or come close to that rising cost line at the 2015, 2018 and 2022 bottoms before turning higher.

It is happening again.

[Solana @solana]

BREAKING: Samsung partners with Solana to bring stablecoins to 82 million US Galaxy devices.

Samsung Wallet users in the US will be able to send money across borders using USDC on Solana, beginning the last week of October.

[Teddy Fusaro @teddyfuse]

BlackRock is tweeting about 'the growing connection between AI and digital assets' and you are bearish anon?

[Seth @seth_fin]

I'M LITERALLY SHAKING

THIS $BTC RED LINE (50W) GOT RECLAIMED AGAIN.

[Rekt Fencer @rektfencer]

🚨 BITCOIN ALREADY HAS ITS NEXT BOTTOM DATE

Every major $BTC bull market lasted 1064 days.

Every following bear market lasted 364 days.

2015 ➜ 2017: 1064 days up
2017 ➜ 2018: 364 days down

2018 ➜ 2021: 1064 days up
2021 ➜ 2022: 364 days down

2022 ➜ 2025: 1064 days up

If the cycle repeats, the next $BTC bottom comes on October 5.

Save the date.

[Rekt Fencer @rektfencer]

⚠️ WARNING:

EVERY JAPAN RATE HIKE HAS SENT THE S&P 500 DOWN.

THE NEXT BOJ HIKE IS COMING TOMORROW.

IF IT REPEATS, $SPX WILL BE BELOW $6,100 BY JUNE 30.

DON’T IGNORE IT.

[K A L E O @CryptoKaleo]

Strategy's $STRC problem:

Saylor has used the issuance of STRC to fund billions of dollars of Bitcoin purchases for the better part of the last year.

The pitch?

STRC sits above common shares with a $100 stated liquidation preference and have an attractive dividend of 11.5%, which gets bumped up gradually when the shares are trading below $99 avg.

It naturally incentivizes buyers because the liquidation preference is economically supported by Strategy's ~844K Bitcoin on the balance sheet after debt and senior preferred claims, and the effective yield rises as the STRC price falls (e.g. at $92 STRC the effective yield is 12.5%).

So, what's the problem?

Their total debt + preferred senior to common claims are roughly ~$22.2B. Most of which isn't a problem ~currently~ (but there are billions of dollars worth of notes that become puttable in 2027-2028... and if MSTR is below conversion economics or refinancing markets are closed, those become hard cash obligations).

Their preferred dividends are currently ~$1.7B annually. And they only have ~$900M cash on hand... so the runway math doesn't look great.

So where does the money come from?

The yield has to come from somewhere.

Their revenue from the software company alone is only ~$500M/yr. That doesn't come anywhere close to what's needed.

They realistically have two options for raising capital:

1) Sell more MSTR...

They currently have ~$26B common ATM capacity available to them, but the issue is they're currently trading at an mNAV well below 1 already. Tapping into this is incredibly dilutive for common shareholders.

2) Sell more Bitcoin...

Saylor already effectively broke the trust he's established for years to "Never sell Bitcoin" when he made a 32 BTC sale last week.

The sale was tiny, but it gave the market a concrete reason to price the possibility of future BTC sales.

But the primary purpose of STRC is to raise more capital to buy more Bitcoin, right?

So in order to buy more Bitcoin, they have to sell Bitcoin.

But we saw what the market did after a small 32 BTC sale. BTC took a massive hit in anticipation that there could be more sales... The machine is breaking.

Strategy can defer dividend payments though if they want, right?

Yes, but unpaid STRC dividends accumulate and then compound monthly. So this isn't a long-term viable option. Deferring STRC dividends preserves cash, but turns STRC from a cash-yield product into distressed preferred equity.

And if the payments aren't being made to STRC, will any investor have confidence to buy it at a discount?

And if STRC is carrying a massive discount, it effectively eliminates it as an option for Strategy to use to continue funding new BTC purchases...

e.g. if STRC is $70, they'd be selling $100 of future liabilities for $70 of current credit. Not a great trade.

Reminder that STRC's $100 is not a redemption peg. Holders cannot simply demand $100 back in normal conditions. The price is maintained by confidence, yield support and Strategy's desire to preserve the funding channel.

If this dynamic persists, the largest corporate buyer of Bitcoin could shift from accumulating to liquidity management via selling or make the common shareholders of MSTR carry the burden by diluting them substantially (for as long as that can last).

I could see this collapse happening fairly swiftly.

It doesn't mean that MSTR necessarily dies off or is forced to immediately sell all of their Bitcoin (that door could be opened early though with something like a change of control of the company, delisting, etc.)...

Not sure what the solution is, but one thing is certain:

I would not want to be holding $MSTR right now.

The risk is not that STRC instantly becomes worthless. The risk is that once STRC trades like distressed preferred equity, Strategy loses a major funding channel while its dividend burden and note put wall remain.

The flywheel effect and the fear from what we've seen with previous major collapses (e.g. Luna / UST, FTX, 10/10, etc.) could lead to something similar here.

This doesn't mean I'm bearish on Bitcoin. I actually think it'll create an insane buying opportunity.

MSTR isn't Bitcoin.

If it does fail, plenty of people will try to claim BTC failed along with it. We've seen it happen plenty of times with plenty of other names. Every time the people digging Bitcoin's grave were wrong. This time isn't any different.

[Philakone @PhilakoneCrypto]

Quick afternoon update.
Bitcoin trends a 10 year expanding diagonal.
Bitcoin has always fallen 77% to 87% between 3 bear markets before. We've fallen only 53% so far.
Much more room to go.
Join my private discord group to get the highest quality updates.

[Seb 🔺 @Seb_1716]

So we were just exit liquidity for these guys the whole time?

Quite disappointed in the lack of follow through of the core team. When I invested in $AVAX back then I felt this team was different, now Kevin has dropped the project to build sci-fi batteries, Luigi will enjoy his life in Portofino and Emin hasn't been seen in months...

What is happening ?
You guys pitched a life changing blockchain technology. I don't think the job is done.

What does this signal to investors ?

[Jelle @CryptoJelleNL]

#Bitcoin looking somewhat promising here, with 8 hours to go until the daily close.

A lot can happen before then - but as it stands we have a CME gap fill, key level retest & so far, holding.

First sliver of hope since the start of the month?

[Rekt Fencer @rektfencer]

The final leg up is coming.

And it won't be generous for bears.

[Lark Davis @LarkDavis]

Weekly Bitcoin candle closes in 6 hours

Currently $BTC is way below the 50W EMA and 50W SMA

Unless we magically pump to above $100,000

We’ll close the weekly candle below those key levels for the first time since the start of the bull market

[Duo Nine ⚡ YCC @duonine]

Based on this price action, next week we should get a nice bounce/relief rally.

If not, this will quickly get ugly.

A 25% drop in a bull market is nothing unusual for Bitcoin. The problem is that the uptrend was lost.

In December we will know for sure if this was it.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Bitcoin had a death cross today.

Note that prior death crosses marked local lows in the market.

Of course, when the cycle is over, the death cross rally fails.

The time for Bitcoin to bounce if the cycle is not over would be starting within the next week.

If no bounce occurs within 1 week, probably another dump before a larger rally back to the 200D SMA which would then mark a macro lower high.

Trade the market you have, not the market you want.

[Sweep @0xSweep]

I have been warning everyone for weeks.

Just look at the accuracy.