Igorptash

I post company earnings, catalysts & what actually moves the market.
Nothing here is a financial advise
Do your own research !!

[Kevin Xu @kevinxu]

Told my wife we're down $426k this month.

She said why didn't you just sell last month?

Genius.

Never even thought of that.

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

The scariest chart of the week wasn't a stock.

It was 3 Fed presidents voting for a hike while the majority held rates. That's the bond market's real fear — not that the Fed is wrong, but that it's late. 10-year yield jumped 7bps same day. Dow -1,153.

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

Four companies said the same sentence this week: "we're raising AI capex."

Microsoft: +7%. Amazon: up on margin. Meta: -9%. Apple: slides on China/Services.

Same input, four verdicts. The market stopped rewarding spend. It's rewarding proof it converts.

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

Meta raised capex guidance and dropped 9%.
Amazon raised capex guidance and I bought more.
The difference isn't the spend. It's AWS margin sitting at 39%, up 650bps, in the same quarter as the raise. Meta hasn't shown me that number yet.

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

AWS backlog: $244B → $364B . In one quarter.

People will tell you that's "just OpenAI." I'll take a $120B vote of confidence from the company that needs the most compute on earth, thanks.

Still buying $AMZN here.

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

Leopold’s Situational Awareness fund just dropped 67%.Apparently the only thing he wasn’t aware of… was how much leverage he was running. One correction.
One margin call.
Game over.Genius AI thesis + nuclear leverage = classic hedge fund recipe.$NVDA $MSFT
#LeverageKills #SituationalAwareness #MarginCall

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

AI CapEx just crossed $1 TRILLION. Microsoft, Amazon & Apple all confirm the same thing:
Demand is still outrunning supply. Amazon raising CapEx to $220B.
2027–2028 capacity already booked.
Apple warns of worsening chip & memory shortages.The infrastructure trade remains intact…
But investors are starting to demand real returns, not just spending.Volatility is high. Risk is rising.
Yet the bottleneck is still supply, not demand.$NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MU $TSM $VRT
Is the AI boom maturing — or just getting more selective?

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

🚨Apple just beat.Revenue $109.4B
EPS $2.02 vs $1.88
Gross margin hit 50.1%But the real story?
Memory prices are a “100-year flood.”Supply constraints getting worse.
Chip capacity can’t keep up with demand.
Costs rising fast — Apple already raising some prices.Siri AI beta response is strong.The memory supercycle is very real.$AAPL $MU $WDC $SNDK
Who else is feeling this squeeze?

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

AXT just crushed it.Revenue $47.6M vs $34.1M expected
EPS $0.19 vs $0.07
Q3 guide: $66M+ revenue, $0.30–0.32 EPSBacklog hits all-time high >$100M
Demand for InP substrates outrunning supply
Capacity set to nearly triple by 2027This is the start of a multi-year AI optical cycle.Silicon Photonics is heating up hard. $AXTI $LITE $COHR $MRVL $AVGO $TSM
Who’s watching this one?

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

🚨Amazon just dropped a monster quarter.Revenue $201B
EPS $5.75 (vs $1.83 expected)
AWS +37% to $42.2BCapEx raised to $220 BILLION for 2026.
2027–2028 capacity already largely booked.
Still can’t meet AI demand.Memory prices exploding. Custom silicon & AI chips each running at $25B+ annually.The AI infrastructure supercycle is accelerating, not slowing.$AMZN $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MU $TSM $VRT Who’s still underestimating this?

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

AI isn’t the future anymore.
It’s the growth engine RIGHT NOW. Amazon AWS +37%
Google Cloud +82%
Azure +43%
Meta exploring AI compute rentalsCapEx exploding. Demand crushing supply.
The AI infrastructure trade is just getting started.$NVDA $AMD $AVGO $TSM $MU $VRT $ETN Who’s positioned?

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

AXT $AXTI just signed a major long-term deal with Lumentum $LITE. Supply agreement for Indium Phosphide (InP) substrates + capacity commitment through 2031.
Lumentum will pay up to $87M in advances ($43.5M within 30 days, another $43.5M in 2028).This is more than a regular supply contract.
A leading optical player is locking in critical materials years ahead — a clear signal that demand for high-speed optical components in AI data centers is expected to stay strong well into the next decade.InP is essential for lasers, modulators and photonic components as data centers shift from copper to optical interconnects. Direct winner: $AXTI (liquidity boost + multi-year visibility).
Also constructive for LITE and the broader optical/photonics supply chain.Another sign that the AI infrastructure buildout is moving deeper into materials and optics.Thoughts on long-term capacity locks like this? 👇

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

Arm $ARM beat estimates:
Revenue $1.29B | EPS $0.45 Guidance slightly above consensus, but the stock sold off on weaker smartphone royalty outlook.The real story was in the call:Demand for Arm’s AGI CPUs has surged.
A few months ago they saw a ~$1B opportunity in FY27-28.
Now customer demand already exceeds $2B, and confidence has risen sharply in the last 90 days.First products already shipped. Commercial volume expected late FY2027.
Capacity for the first $1B is secured. Data center royalties more than doubled year-over-year (Graviton, Axion, TPU, NVIDIA Vera + other hyperscalers).Long-term AI CPU opportunity raised from >$100B to nearly $220B by the end of the decade.Short-term: smartphone weakness.
Medium/long-term: Arm is becoming a core beneficiary of the AI data center shift. Market focused on the mobile soft patch. The strategic acceleration looks more important.Thoughts? 👇

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

Silicon Motion $SIMO crushed earnings:Revenue $451M vs $404M expected
EPS $2.43 vs $2.13 expected Q next guide: $519–541M (well above street)
Gross margin ~50%Management was extremely bullish:
NAND & DRAM shortages expected to last until 2028.
AI demand for HBM, DRAM, NAND (and even HDD) is already driving significant price increases.They see a record year in 2026, driven by higher market share in consumer NAND controllers + expansion into enterprise & AI storage (MonTitan now entering commercial phase).Smartphone market stays weak, but SIMO still grows via share gains and higher-ASP UFS controllers. One of the most constructive memory-related calls in a while.If the shortage thesis holds → positive for $SIMO, $SNDK, $MU, $WDC and the broader memory chain.Thoughts on the multi-year memory shortage? 👇

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

CoreWeave $CRWV + Leidos $LDOS : Partnership to deliver AI cloud services to U.S. intelligence and defense agencies.CoreWeave supplies the AI platform from SCIF data centers for classified data.
Leidos handles secure integration, architecture, certifications, cyber, and https://t.co/kYrM3uUAhe financial terms released — and still subject to definitive agreements. Strategic direction, not a closed deal.Opens the high-barrier U.S. government & defense market for CoreWeave (long-term contracts).
Strengthens Leidos’ AI capabilities without building the infra itself.If it scales → positive for the AI stack: $NVDA, $SMCI, $ANET, $VRT, $ETN. Solid positioning move for CRWV in defense AI. Potential is real — revenue impact still TBD.Thoughts on CoreWeave entering the classified AI cloud space? 👇

[Igorptash @Igorptash1]

🚨 Big step for autonomous vehicles:Amazon’s Zoox just received NHTSA approval to commercially deploy its purpose-built robotaxi — a vehicle designed from the ground up with no steering wheel and no pedals.The approval allows up to 2,500 vehicles per year for the next two years. This isn’t just another pilot. It’s a meaningful regulatory precedent: the first significant green light for a fully driverless vehicle that wasn’t retrofitted from a traditional car.For Amazon, this strengthens its position in the robotaxi race and opens long-term potential for its logistics network. Short-term impact is limited, but the regulatory milestone is real — and puts more pressure on everyone else in the space, including TSLA.AMZN and UBER stand to benefit most directly as the race accelerates.What do you think — is Zoox becoming a serious contender?

$amzn $tsla

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Is https://t.co/Bx3917zMqi missing a green dot?

[Dear Bitcoiner ⚡️ @DearBitcoiner]

$MSTR is joining the Nasdaq-100 ($QQQ), backed by the ultimate strategic reserve: #Bitcoin.

The question isn’t if we’ll surpass Microsoft’s market cap, it’s how fast.
#MSTR #BTC

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Let that sink in