Casmad

Helping you understand what moves crypto—not just what happened.

[Casmad @ImCasmad]

Whether this analogue ultimately proves right or wrong...

it has already changed how I read markets.

Because sometimes the biggest edge isn't predicting the next move...

It's recognizing the pattern everyone else dismissed.

[Casmad @ImCasmad]

For months, I've been trying to break one idea

Instead..the #market kept strengthening it

Today, I think it's finally worth sharing

It starts with a part of #Bitcoin's previous #bear market that almost nobody is comparing to today.

And if this analogue continues to rhyme...🧵

[Casmad @ImCasmad]

Here's what would make me change my mind.

If Bitcoin starts breaking the analogue...

I'll abandon the thesis immediately.

No ego.

No attachment.

The market doesn't care about opinions.

Only evidence.

[Casmad @ImCasmad]

Markets reward those who notice the signal before the story.

See you tomorrow.

[Casmad @ImCasmad]

Today, Citi cut its Bitcoin target.

Most headlines focused on this:

"$82,000."

Wrong story.

Price targets rarely move markets.

The assumption behind them does.

Here's the signal that could matter more than Bitcoin's price over the next few months:🧵

[Casmad @ImCasmad]

Over the next few days, ignore the noise.

Watch these instead:

→ ETF flow data

→ Regulatory developments

→ Institutional allocation announcements

If those improve...

price will eventually notice.