If there is anything we have learned since April 2025:
President Trump's post about China claiming "massive" tariff increases are coming is a bargaining chip.
We believe trade talks between the US and China will resume after a little turbulence.
Meanwhile, the Fed is cutting rates into 3%+ inflation, the AI Revolution is on fire, and the USD is down -10% YTD.
Magnificent 7 CapEx alone is now over $100B/quarter.
Asset owners will continue to win.
$ES_F $SPY The market has returned to a six-day bracketing phase, establishing a clear balance area where value is being defined through repeated auctions.
With significant news events on the horizon this week, the profile suggests a high probability of directional conviction emerging, breaking us out of this containment zone. Remain vigilant for false probes: those look-above or look-below failures that test conviction without commitment.
Buyers will seek to establish acceptance above 6419 right from the open, defending it as a pivotal reference to sustain upward auction momentum.
A failure to hold there opens the door to responsive selling, targeting 6406.75 down to 6400, with the real test of bracket integrity coming at 6394 to 6390.25: where we'll see if price finds acceptance within the current value structure or rejects it entirely.
Observe the opening print closely in relation to 6419 and the daily value area high; this will reveal the initial balance of power.
For bulls to maintain control and pursue higher development, they must anchor above 6394.25 and recapture 6419 to facilitate continuation. A loss of 6394.25 would accelerate downside exploration, likely drawing us swiftly toward 6366.5 and then 6347 to 6340 as excess develops. Trade with discipline, respecting the profile's logic. Good luck!
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