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TradeMaster's Ecosystem is a trading mecca complete with it's own native token $TRDM. Elevating this Ecosystem are a set of game changing NFTs. These NFTs give access to various tools and products within the Ecosystem and so much more. Take the Diamond NFT for example. Holding

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

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@infotrademaster $TRDM #trademasterninja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

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[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

Macro Viewpoint
This week’s main focus is whether the Fed will challenge market expectations of a series of rate cuts stretching into next year when policymakers meet on Wednesday.

Investors are largely factoring in reductions at each of the next three meetings, anticipating that the Fed may prioritize easing pressures on a cooling job market, even as inflation stays above its goal.

Road To Rate Cuts
This Wednesday, the Fed is set to lower rates for the first time in 2025, pointing to a sluggish labor market as the driver. Remarkably, it will mark only the third time since 1996 that rate cuts have arrived while the S&P 500 sits at record highs.

Historically, when the Fed has cut rates while the S&P 500 was sitting at record levels, stocks finished higher a year later in 20 out of 20 cases.

On average, the index gained about 13.9% over the following 12 months. That said, in 11 of the past 22 instances, the market actually pulled back over the next month.

This week’s Fed could become a “sell-the-news” event as investors take time to consider the macro environment, the Fed’s future reaction function, stretched positioning, a temporarily weaker corporate buyback bid, waning retail investor participation, and quarter-end rebalancing.

We’ve seen a great amount of institutional clients add protection leading up to this event:

Simply put, investors have been adding hedges to protect long equity holdings from a potential market drop. This also signals growing caution ahead of the long-anticipated September Fed meeting.

If this comes to fruition, look for a 3–5% pullback with some key catalysts to support the Bull Case afterwards:

PCE on Sep 26, which is already de-risked with the last CPI print

NFP on Oct 3, where a higher MoM print will continue to support an increasingly optimistic macro outlook

CPI on Oct 15, which will guide expectations for the Oct 29 Fed, similar to the set-up into the Sept Fed

Based upon information available, this could be a BTD opportunity, and a lot of institutional clients are positioning for this and would use any pullback to add to risk. @infotrademaster $TRDM #trademasterninja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

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[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

**The Market Brief**
Global equities edged higher as traders remained cautious ahead of the closely watched US inflation report, seen as key to shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.

--
**CPI Scenarios**
Similar to the previous NFP analysis, the outcome is skewed positively as Powell’s Jackson Hole speech cemented a 25bp cut for September. There is reason to think that there is no credible threat to the print that would force the Fed to remain paused in September.

- Core MoM prints above 0.40%. SPX loses 1.5% - 2%

- Core MoM prints between 0.35% - 0.40%. SPX loses 0.5% - 1%

- Core MoM prints between 0.30% - 0.35%. SPX loses 25bps to gains 50bps

- Core MoM prints between 0.25% - 0.30%. SPX gains 1% - 1.5%

- Core MoM prints below 0.25%. SPX gains 1.25% - 1.75%

--
**E-mini S&P 500 (ES)**
📊 Outlook
Expecting much of the same reaction, but more amplified this time. There will be an initial swing with everyone trying to pile up on the move, followed by at least a partial correction.

Yesterday’s Flip zone was the key resistance, which the market failed 3 times to go through.

�� Bulls: Holding above the settle is a sign of strength for continuation. Although that will put the overnight towards extreme long, there will likely be opportunities to rotate higher on an upside scenario and towards the first target.

🔴 Bears: There is a lot of room for the market to break on the downside case scenario, with the potential to rotate all the way towards the early 6500s if we accept below.

@infotrademaster $TRDM #trademasterninja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

Macro Viewpoint
Stocks finished higher yesterday, thanks to an afternoon rebound driven by a few Mag 7 stocks. Market reactions were mostly muted heading into PPI/CPI.

The recent surge in stocks has been fueled by optimism that the Fed might cut rates sooner rather than later. Investors are betting that persistent pressures on wholesale and consumer prices will stay manageable, giving policymakers the flexibility to support a softening labor market.
--
E-mini S&P 500 (ES)
🔄 Overnight Activity
The market broke below settle and tapped into the overlapping value areas of last week’s Thu-Fri, which was a key destination for the market to reject or accept, as noted in our outlook, and bounced right off, with the session closing out our flip zone as the market had room to run to the upside.

📊 Outlook
The market is higher during the overnight, meaning the inventory is extremely long and will be easily shaken out if any “surprises” emerge from the PPI number. Most likely, we will be dealing with another directional swing right after the number, with everyone trying to “trade” the bullish or bearish sentiment of it, which will be followed by a correction right after.

🟢 Bulls: Holding inside the 6500s is a sign of acceptance and will likely see continuation to new highs. The longer we re-test the highs, the higher the odds of a breakout. We’re looking at the area of 6560 as key destination resistance the market needs to go through first.

🔴 Bears: Whatever you see to the upside right now will completely reset back to the settle, which will be the gap closure if the U.S. opens around here (away from the settle). The market’s ability to hold inside the 6500s is key; the lack of it will see a liquidation break with destination references below.

@infotrademaster $TRDM #trademasterninja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

Navigating Chop Like A Ninja-

Most people don't understand that being profitable with trading is not just about the strategy. Strategy plays a smaller role than risk and self-management. You can give a profitable strategy to anyone and they still lose money.

Understanding the trading environment and being prepared means you’re not surprised when something does happen, and you’re ready to act at a moment’s notice when it does happen.

The image shows a piece of context from the previous outlook along with the first two references.

Think of the risk you would have exposed yourself to if you thought this was going to be a trend day and headed in with that expectation in mind during that session. @infotrademaster $TRDM #trademasterninja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

E-mini S&P 500 (ES)
📊 Outlook
Balance is the market’s mechanism to communicate that it requires additional information in the form of catalysts in order to perform its next directional auction. This is exactly what is happening with the market refraining from placing big bets prior to the inflationary reports over the next two days.

The market’s sustained weakness to hold the 6500s will see a pullback to the two-day value area of last Thu–Fri.

🟢 Bulls: Holding above the settle is mandatory in order to rotate at the all-time highs and towards today’s Flip Zone to challenge new highs.

🔴 Bears: The market has room to break to the downside and rotate towards the midpoint of the distribution, which is around today’s pivot. Remember, a rotation to the highs that fails to get accepted will result in a one-way trip towards the MID of balance.
Image
Market References - Target zones

Overnight Inventory: Long

Settle: 6506

Pivot/LIS: 6478

Flip Zone: 6532

Upside Levels: 6557/ 6586/6612

Downside Levels: 6466/6444/6423

Market State: Balance
@infotrademaster $TRDM #trademasterninja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

Macro Viewpoint
Rangebound session yesterday to start what's expected to be an extremely active week between macro (PPI Wednesday, CPI and ECB Thursday).

Flow-wise, institutions are still reluctant to chase all-time highs. Hedge funds continue to reduce their gross and net leverage. The ‘non-economic’ cohort offered more support, with CTAs arguably close to max length but not selling U.S. indices just yet.

Small to moderate changes continued through the end of summer/August, as institutional and total non-dealer U.S. equity lengths stand at their 73–79% historical ranks, an area they’ve been in for some weeks.

@infotrademaster $TRDM #trademasterninja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

The Market Brief

U.S. equity futures edged higher, recovering much of last week’s losses that stemmed from concerns the Federal Reserve might be slow to respond to a cooling labor market.

Markets are now focused on two key inflation reports due this week, which could provide fresh clues about the economy’s trajectory following Friday’s softer-than-expected jobs data.
--
Aggregate equity positioning has slipped over the last three weeks but remains modestly above neutral.
Image
Discretionary investor positioning has declined from neutral to moderately underweight while systematic strategies positioning remains elevated.

Inflows to equity funds ($17.6bn) meanwhile remained strong for a fourth week and were broad-based across the US ($5.1b).

@infotrademaster $TRDM #trademasterninja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

E-mini S&P 500 (ES)
📊 Outlook
The b-shaped profile left during Friday’s session is an indication that the session experienced a liquidation break rather than new money selling. Sometimes, the market has to break before it can rally back up. That is a way to shake out some of the weaker-hand traders and replace them with new, stronger money.

The lack of economic reports to kick off the week can see a lot of chop for the session as the value areas start to overlap, forming a short-term balance.

🟢 Bulls: Continuation and acceptance inside the 6500s is seeing a market that will straight up march towards a new all-time high if successfully flipping 6517 into support.

🔴 Bears: Evidence of materialisced weakness will emerge if the market starts breaking below today’s pivot. The market will likely seek another lower low towards today’s reference right after.
Image
Market References - Target zones

Overnight Inventory: Extreme Long

Settle: 6489

Pivot/LIS: 6473

Flip Zone: 6517

Upside Levels: 6557/6586/6612

Downside Levels: 6444/6423/6390

Market State: Balance
--
Impact Snapshot
PPI Inflation - Wednesday

CPI Inflation - Thursday

Unemployment Claims - Thursday

Consumer Sentiment - Friday

@infotrademaster $TRDM #trademasterninja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

⚠️ September = danger zone:
📈 Systematic strats = maxed out
🚫 Buybacks in blackout
🍂 Negative seasonality
🌪️ Volatility set to rise

👉 Smart money is loading downside hedges. Are you?

#Volatility #RiskManagement #Trading $TRDM #TRDM

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

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Learn more at the TradeMaster Discord:

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[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

E-mini S&P 500 (ES)
🔄 Prior Session Re-cap
Trading with context is key if you want to have any luck regarding holding trades towards their true destination targets and not booking profits early. As suggested by our bullish scenario yesterday, holding above the settle and reclaiming the pivot would see a one-way trip towards the gap. Which is exactly what happened after the fact, with profit-taking towards the upside pivots taking place.

📊 Outlook
Expect major volatility at the time of the jobs report. Likely going to see an initial swing directional reaction for the market that will reflect the numbers, followed by a correction swing which will offer opportunity.

🟢 Bulls: Maintain activity above the settle will see another continuation towards the flip zone and the market approaching the 6600s for the first time.

🔴 Bears: Break and hold below the settle will wipe the entire advance of the overnight and most of yesterday’s session towards the pivot with follow-up references below.

@infotrademaster $TRDM #trademasterninja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

**Market References - Target zones**

Overnight Inventory: Extreme Long

Settle: 6510

Pivot/LIS: 6473

Flip Zone: 6570

Upside Levels: 6612/6632/6693

Downside Levels: 6455/6435/6412

Market State: Imbalance

--
**Impact Snapshot**
🟥 Unemployment Rate - 8:30am

🟥 Non-Farm Payrolls - 8:30am

--

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[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

Macro Market Viewpoint

The August non-farm payrolls release, the first since Trump dismissed the Biden-appointed BLS commissioner last month, is projected to show an increase of about 75k jobs, only slightly above July’s 73k gain. Markets will also be watching closely for revisions, especially after July’s steep downward adjustments.

This report will be pivotal in shaping expectations for Fed rate cuts through the rest of the year. A September move is already largely priced in, following July’s weak employment data and Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole.

If the numbers come in especially weak, Powell could even be pushed toward a 50bps cut.

NFP SCENARIOS

First, these outcomes below are skewed positively which we think reflects the market’s view that this print is unlikely to impact the September Fed meeting.

Above 110k. SPX gains 1% to loses 1.5%

Between 85k – 110k. SPX gains 50bp – 1.25%

Between 65k – 85k. SPX gains 50bp – 100bp

Between 40k – 65k. SPX gains 25bp – 50bp%

Below 40k. SPX loses 25bp – 75bp.

A weaker than expected print will increase calls for 50bp, and the magnitude of the downside risk could re-anchor investor expectations around the timing of a recession.

The option straddle is pricing in a 0.70% move tomorrow, which would be one of the lowest NFP day moves if it materializes. Notably, the last time the VIX was lower ahead of the NFP print was in February 25.

@infotrademaster $TRDM #trademasterninja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

Big stuff! Thanks for sharing @jchains

[Justin Custardo @jchains]

This is bigger than ETF approvals.

Welcome to the institutional era of crypto.

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

⚠️ After a relentless summer rally, September seasonality looms:

Systematic strategies maxed out

Corporate demand fading (buyback blackout)

⚠️Volatility likely to rise

👉 Downside hedges look especially prudent.

#Stocks #Volatility #RiskManagement #TRDM #TradeMasterNinja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

E-mini S&P 500 (ES)
🔄 Prior Session Re-cap
The entire activity of y-day’s session up to today was contained within the settle at 6425 and the flip zone at 6474. The market filled the gap to the upside and the overnight gap to the downside, as everyone is in wait-and-see mode.

📊 Outlook
The flip zone and pivot act as a “gauge” to measure the market’s true strength or weakness before achieving session goals (e.g., fill gaps or reach the first up/down pivot). The flip zone is sitting below key resistance that the market needs to “flip” into support before marching towards the 6500s.

🟢 Bulls: Any continuation will require the market to find acceptance above the flip zone in order to march towards the 6500s. The upside gap is a key objective to for the market to “repair”.

🔴 Bears: The longer we spend close to the settle, the greater the odds that the market is lacking fuel to trigger continuation—aka no new buying power—confirming the “mostly short covering” price action we’ve seen yesterday.
Image
Market References - Target zones

Overnight Inventory: Extreme Long

Settle: 6456

Pivot/LIS: 6415

Flip Zone: 6477

Upside Levels: 6498/6520/6532

Downside Levels: 6397/6354/6321

Market State: Imbalance

--
Impact Snapshot

🟥 ADP Payrolls - 8:15am

🟥 Unemployment Claims - 8:30am

🟥 ISM Services PMI - 10:00am

@infotrademaster $TRDM #trademasterninja

[TradeMaster.Ninja @InfoTradeMaster]

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