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STATE MATTERS. WEEK TWO.

Less than 90 days till voting. 89 to be exact. 64 days to caretaker.

Latest poll still: L/NP 27, ALP 25, ONP 23, GRN 12 (Resolve, 9–15 Aug).

Conversations this week:
Transport: The big one. Labor moved to cut $2bn from the Suburban Rail Loop, before an Auditor-General report revealed a previously undisclosed 1% levy on public transport fares. Carroll scrapped the levy the next day.
Roads: Labor pledged an extra $352m to double pothole repairs to 500,000. Roads are already a live issue: 64% of respondents to RACV’s regional roads survey named potholes and poor road condition as their biggest safety concern.
Energy: One Nation took its campaign against VNI West and renewable energy projects to Marnoo, drawing around 1,000 people as it pushed coal and gas.

Closest contests (% margin): Bass (0.2%), Northcote (0.2%), Pakenham (0.4%), Mornington (0.7%), Benambra (0.9%).

Other seats worth watching:
Northcote. Labor holds just 0.2% against the Greens, making it one of the closest contests in the state.
Pakenham. Labor holds 0.4%. One Nation state leader Warren Pickering is running here, with Pauline Hanson campaigning in the seat this weekend.
Ripon. Labor holds 3.0%. One Nation now has its candidate (Donna Buxton), while VNI West keeps the regional seat firmly in the campaign.

Victoria decides on 28 November.

This fox is following closely each week. 🦊

Sources: Resolve, ABC News, RACV, Antony Green, VEC.
#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

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SO, WHAT DO @CliveFPalmer AND THE @UnitedAusParty STAND FOR?

Clive Palmer has already served in federal Parliament, winning the Queensland seat of Fairfax in 2013 by 53 votes.

Today, the United Australia Party’s published platform includes:
•⁠ ⁠abolishing Net Zero
•⁠ ⁠reducing immigration while infrastructure catches up
•⁠ ⁠taxing exported Australian gas while exempting gas used for domestic power generation
•⁠ ⁠using Australia’s natural resources and regional investment to support jobs and economic growth

Palmer describes the UAP’s approach as a “New Deal for Australia”, focused on lowering costs and increasing Australia’s economic capacity.

There are indications the United Australia Party intends to contest the next federal election. The UAP was federally registered in March 2026, and Clive Palmer has said he plans to contest the Queensland seat of Fadden.

The party also has a current federal voice in Victorian Senator @senatorbabet.

This fox is following closely 🦊.

@TrumpetPatriots @roweafr @zdaniel @PatsKarvelas @StuartDavidRoe

#auspol

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LIBERAL-NATIONALS vs ONE NATION: what’s the difference?

They can overlap on issues, but they are built around different political traditions.

🔵🟢 Liberal-Nationals
The Liberal-National Coalition is Victoria’s established centre-right alternative to Labor.

The Liberals are a broad centre-right party, combining economic liberalism, private enterprise and lower-tax instincts with more conservative positions on some social and law-and-order issues.

The Nationals are primarily a rural and regional party, focused on agriculture, country communities, regional infrastructure and ensuring regional Victoria has influence inside government.

Together, their purpose is straightforward: win enough seats to form a government and govern as a Coalition.

🟠 One Nation
One Nation is generally classified by political scientists as a populist right-wing party.

Its politics is more explicitly anti-establishment. It argues that the major parties and political institutions have become disconnected from ordinary voters.

In Victoria, its platform places particularly strong emphasis on energy, cost of living, law and order, reducing taxes and regulation, and opposition to parts of the state’s renewable-energy agenda.

The simplest distinction
Liberal-Nationals: a broad centre-right Coalition designed to govern.
One Nation: a populist challenger designed to disrupt the established party system and pressure it from the right.
That means they can agree on individual policies without appealing to exactly the same voters - or offering the same kind of politics.

This distinction is particularly important in Victoria, where the two are increasingly competing for support across both regional and outer-suburban communities.

This fox is following closely each week. 🦊

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

Sources: Australian Election Study 2025; Moffitt & Sengul (2023); ANU Press; Liberal–Nationals Victoria; One Nation Victoria.

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WHAT DOES THE WA BY-ELECTION MEAN FOR VICTORIA?

One Nation has won Secret Harbour from Labor, the result should ‘send a jolt’ through Victorian Labor, according to ABC.

At the last election, Labor won this seat comfortably. This time the results showed a different story:
🟠 One Nation +30.6 points
🔴 Labor -22.1 points
🔵 Liberal -7.7 points

One Nation’s primary vote jumped to 39.1%, up from about 8.5% last election.

ABC’s count analysis says One Nation appears to have pulled votes from both major parties but far more from Labor.

Secret Harbour is a young, outer-suburban mortgage-belt seat where working families have been dealing with rapid growth and pressure on local services and infrastructure.

Morwell is arguably the clearest One Nation target right now in Victoria, with ABC reporting it as “ground zero” for the party’s support.

Pakenham is also particularly interesting. Labor holds it by just 0.4%, and Victorian One Nation leader Warren Pickering is contesting the seat.

By-elections are different, and one result in WA cannot predict November. Whether this support transfers to Victoria is yet to be decided.

89 days.

This fox is following closely. 🦊

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

Sources: Secret Harbour by-election results, ABC News, Resolve, Antony Green.

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WHERE THE VICTORIAN CAMPAIGN IS HEADING THIS WEEKEND 👀

With three months to polling day, here are some of the campaign events happening across Victoria this weekend.

🟠 One Nation
Today: Pauline Hanson heads to Marnoo, where One Nation has said it plans to unveil Victorian policies on energy, farming and cost of living.

Marnoo puts the campaign directly into the debate around VNI West, a major issue in parts of regional Victoria.

All weekend: One Nation candidates Greg Hansford and Ben Lucas are at the Gippsland Caravan & Camping Roadshow at Lardner Park.

Tomorrow: Hanson heads to Pakenham for a community BBQ. Pakenham is one of Victoria’s most marginal seats and is being contested by One Nation state leader Warren Pickering.

🟢 Greens
The Greens have a busy field campaign across Melbourne, with door-knocking and community campaigning today in seats including Prahran, Footscray, Pascoe Vale and Kensington, alongside Werribee candidate Tushar Kumar’s community event in Manor Lakes.

More Greens campaigning continues tomorrow, including in Prahran, Footscray, Brunswick and Pascoe Vale.

🔴 Labor and 🔵 L-NP Coalition
No public weekend schedule for Premier Ben Carroll or Opposition Leader Jess Wilson had been advertised as of Friday afternoon. Leader campaign stops are often announced closer to the event.

Then on Monday, Hanson, Pickering and Hansford continue One Nation’s run with an Eastern Victoria fundraiser in Sale.

This fox is following closely🦊.

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

Sources: One Nation Victoria events calendar; Australian Greens events calendar; ABC News; Victorian Labor; Liberal Victoria.

[Infomarket @InfomarketAU]

WORK FROM HOME IN VICTORIA? A BILL THAT MAY AFFECT YOU HAS JUST HIT A ROADBLOCK 🚧.

PARLIAMENTARY DEVELOPMENT: Labor’s proposed legal right to work from home has already passed the Lower House, but the bill has now stalled in the Upper House after the government pulled it from this week’s debate schedule.

🔴 Labor: wants eligible workers to have a legal right to work from home two days a week where reasonable, but has delayed the planned start until July 2027 and pulled the bill from this week’s Upper House debate.

🔵 L-NP Coalition: supports the right to work from home and has said it will not oppose the bill, but wants amendments to reduce the burden on employers and ease its introduction.

🟢 Greens: support the right, but want Labor to restore the original September 2026 start date.
With only two parliamentary sitting weeks left before the November election, it is now uncertain whether the bill will become law before polling day.

With only two parliamentary sitting weeks left before the November election, it is now uncertain whether the bill will become law before polling day.

If it does not pass, work from home could become a live election issue instead.

This fox is following closely🦊.

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

Sources: Parliament of Victoria, ABC News, Victorian Greens, Herald Sun.

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ANOTHER LABOR MP HAS PULLED THE PIN 📌.

Yesterday, another long-serving Labor MP in Bendigo called time.

🔴 Bendigo West: Speaker Maree Edwards announced on yesterday 27 that she will not recontest in November, after almost 16 years in Parliament.

That comes exactly two weeks after:

🔴 Bendigo East: former Premier Jacinta Allan announced on 14 August that she will also leave Parliament at the election, after 27 years as the local MP.

Allan had stepped down as Premier on 28 July, with Ben Carroll taking over the Labor leadership.

So in the space of a month, Bendigo has gone from having two of Labor’s most established regional MPs to two open contests.

Neither seat was marginal in 2022:
📍 Bendigo East: Labor margin 10.9%
📍 Bendigo West: Labor margin 14.4%

In 2022, Labor won Victoria 55 to 45 on two-party preferred.

However, recent polling now has the Coalition ahead:
🔵 Roy Morgan: 51 to 49
🔵 Resolve respondent preferences: 53 to 47
🔵 DemosAU: 55 to 45

This fox is following closely 🦊.

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes2026

Sources: Premier of Victoria, ABC News, Parliament of Victoria; Victorian Electoral Commission; Nationals Victoria.

[Infomarket @InfomarketAU]

HOW CLOSE IS THE VICTORIAN ELECTION?

There are 88 seats in the Lower House. 45 means majority government.

Current numbers:
🔴 Labor: 56
🔵 L-NP Coalition: 29
🟢 Greens: 3

However, the polling tells a different story:

The latest Victorian Resolve poll, conducted 9-15 August:
🔵 L-NP Coalition: 27%
🔴 Labor: 25%
🟠 One Nation: 23%
🟢 Greens: 12%

Head to head? On respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor 53 to 47.

Other recent state polls have also put the L-NP Coalition ahead on two-party preferred. Roy Morgan had it at 51 to 49, while DemosAU had it at 55 to 45.

But statewide polling does not translate directly into seats.

🔴 Labor starts 11 seats above the majority threshold.

🔵 The Coalition needs a net 16 gains from its current 29 seats, and potentially 17 if the Greens retake Prahran.

🟠 One Nation complicates both paths. Its support is strongest in parts of outer-suburban and regional Victoria, with state leader Warren Pickering contesting ultra-marginal Pakenham.

🟢 The Greens are also contesting Labor in inner Melbourne.

So the Coalition currently leads across the recent polling, but translating that into 45 seats is another story.

If nobody gets there, Victoria could be headed for a hung parliament this November.

This fox is following closely 🦊.

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

Sources: Resolve/The Age, Roy Morgan, DemosAU,ABC News.

[Infomarket @InfomarketAU]

Victoria’s next power fight: data centres ⚡️

🔴 Labor has provided a Sustainable Data Centre Action Plan grow Victoria’s data-centre sector while planning for pressure on energy, water, land and infrastructure.

🔵 Liberals instead argue that we should prioritise growth and investment arguing Victoria should compete harder for major AI and data-centre projects.

🟢 Greens: moratorium, meaning a complete pause new large-scale data centres until stronger rules around energy, water, planning and community impacts are in place.

🟠 One Nation: no specific Victorian data-centre policy yet. Its broader energy platform prioritises reliable and cheaper power through coal, gas and nuclear, and opposes premature coal closures.

Why does it matter at a state election?
Planning, land, water and key infrastructure decisions sit substantially with Victoria, while the extra electricity demand feeds directly into the state’s wider energy debate

This fox is following closely 🦊.

Sources: Victorian Government Sustainable Data Centre Action Plan; Parliament of Victoria (David Davis, 4 March 2026); Victorian Greens; One Nation Victoria energy policy; AEMO 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities.

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

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The Suburban Rail Loop is back at the centre of Victoria’s election debate.

A new Auditor-General report has found a 1% public transport fare levy introduced from 2025 was not separately disclosed to passengers, with 60% of the revenue intended to support SRL East. The report also found SRL East is more likely than not to exceed its publicly disclosed cost.

🔴 Labor: Treasurer Colin Brooks said the government should have been more transparent about the levy, while maintaining SRL East will be delivered on time and on budget.

🔵 Coalition: Jess Wilson criticised the levy and reiterated the Coalition’s plan to pause and review the project.

🟢 Greens: Ellen Sandell said the findings raised broader concerns about transparency and public trust.

🟠 One Nation: No new response to the audit yet. With Pauline Hanson heading to Marnoo on Saturday as One Nation unveils key Victorian policies on energy, farming and cost of living, will the SRL come up there too?

93 days until Victoria votes. 🦊

This fox is following closely 🦊.

Sources: Victorian Auditor-General, ABC News, The Guardian.

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

[Infomarket @InfomarketAU]

NEW POLL OUT!

New federal News24 Pulse/YouGov polling published today:
🔴 Labor 29%
🟠 One Nation 26%
🔵 Coalition 21%
🟢 Greens 12%

Last week, Roy Morgan had the federal race at Labor 28.5%, One Nation 25% and the Coalition 23.5%.

And in Victoria? The latest Roy Morgan state poll had:
🔴 Labor 26%
🔵 Coalition 26%
🟠 One Nation 23.5%

Different elections, different leaders, but the same trend is getting harder to ignore.

One Nation is now polling in the mid-20s at both state and federal level. Do they have what it takes to compete with Labor and the L-NP Coalition?

This fox is following cloesly🦊.

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

[Infomarket @InfomarketAU]

All eyes on Marloo this saturday. 👀

A tiny town in western Victoria could host one of the most important moments yet in One Nation’s state election campaign.

On 29 August, Pauline Hanson heads to Marnoo for a Farmers Fightback event, where One Nation says it plans to unveil key Victorian policies on:

→ energy
→ farming
→ cost of living

Barnaby Joyce is also expected to appear.

And the location matters. Marnoo sits in Ripon, a Labor seat held by 5.98% and cut directly by the controversial VNI West transmission route.

Pollster Kos Samaras has told the ABC One Nation support in Ripon has climbed above 40%.

One Nation has already pledged to scrap VNI West, but, remarkably, it still hasn't announced its candidate for Ripon.

Three months out from polling day, Saturday could tell us a lot more about what a One Nation campaign for Victoria actually looks like.

They've been pretty quiet so far, let's see if Saturday will change that...

This fox will be watching Marnoo. 🦊

Sources: ABC News, Farmers Fightback, West Vic News.

[Infomarket @InfomarketAU]

One rail line. Four very different election pitches.

Victoria’s $33bn+ Suburban Rail Loop is quickly becoming a defining fault line of the November election.

🔴 Labor: build it, but cheaper.
Ben Carroll today identified around $1bn in scope cuts and ordered a technical review to find another $1bn. Current works continue, but no new contracts will be signed until the review reports.

🔵 Coalition: pause and review it.
Jess Wilson wants the contracts made public and says a Coalition government would pause the project and review what Victoria has already been committed to.

🟠 One Nation: abolish it.
Victorian leader Warren Pickering’s answer when asked about SRL last week: “Abolish it.”

🟢Greens: the concept has merit, but the project needs scrutiny.
The Greens have backed the case for better orbital public transport while questioning SRL’s costs, planning and transparency. No fresh Greens response to today’s cuts has been published that I can find yet.

The numbers matter too:
→ Current estimated investment: $33.3bn
→ Labor’s target after the review: $32.3bn
→ Contracts already signed: more than $14bn
→ Tunnelling: due to begin next month

95 days until Victoria votes.

The SRL isn’t just an infrastructure project anymore. It’s an election dividing line.

This fox is following closely🦊.

Sources: Victorian Government, ABC News, Parliament of Victoria, 10 News.

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

[Infomarket @InfomarketAU]

Something to chew on:

Labor pledged 10 new public dental clinics on Saturday. $230m over three years. Every Victorian residents would be eligible, opening e public system up from it currently being largely limited to healthcare card holders. Target capacity: 100,000+ patients a year.

Why it matters: 34,000 Australians withdrew from superannuation in 2024-25 to pay for dental work (ATO). Premier Ben Carroll frames it as "structural cost-of-living support."

Currently Victoria's public dental system already operates at 52.5% capacity (Vic Parliament, May 2023). The workforce has dropped from 223.6 FTE dentists in 2018 to 181.5 in 2024 (ADA Victoria). Wait times average 14.4 months.

The Greens, whose own dental campaign preceded Labor's, argue the constraint is workforce, not chairs.
Deputy leader Sarah Mansfield says Victoria's public dental workforce is one of the lowest paid in Australia.

This fox is following closely 🦊.

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

Sources: ABC News, ATO, Vic Parliament QoN 460, ADA Victoria, Real Estate Source.

[Infomarket @InfomarketAU]

Let's bring some energy to the table.

The Coalition committed last week to scrap VNI West: the $7.6bn+ high-voltage line planned to connect western Victoria to NSW as part of Labor's plan to replace Yallourn coal (closing 2028) with renewables. The project is in development, with early site surveys underway. Construction hasn't started.

Where the parties stand:

Labor: proceed.
Coalition (19 Aug): scrap. Turn to gas.
One Nation (20 Aug): also scrap.
Greens: 2026 platform due soon.

One transmission line. Two possible futures. Decided 28 November.

This fox is following closely 🦊.

Sources: ABC News, VicGrid.

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

[Infomarket @InfomarketAU]

STATE MATTERS. WEEK ONE.

Less than 100 days to polling. 96 to be exact. 71 to caretaker.

Latest poll: L/NP 27, ALP 25, ONP 23, GRN 12 (Resolve, 9–15 Aug).

Conversations this week:
Energy: The big one. Coalition to scrap VNI West (19 Aug), with One Nation aligned (20 Aug).
Health: Labor pledged 10 free dental clinics, $230m (22 Aug).
Crime: Coalition proposed splitting the Court of Appeal, including a new Court of Criminal Appeal (23 Aug).

Closest contests (% margin):
Bass (0.2%), Pakenham (0.4%), Hastings (1.4%).

Other Seats worth watching:
Ripon. Labor holds 3.0%, but One Nation is gaining strongly along the VNI West corridor.
Hawthorn & Kew.
Pesutto and Wilson’s own seats, both under Independent challenge.

Victoria decides on 28 November.

This fox is following closely each week.🦊

Sources: Antony Green pendulum, Resolve, ABC News, VEC.

#auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

[Infomarket @InfomarketAU]

The State of Victoria has just changed how its Upper House is elected, and barely anyone's talking about it.

Victoria has scrapped Group Voting Tickets, the system that let candidates win an upper house seat on ~1% of the vote through backroom preference deals. Now voters control their own preferences.

The timing is sharp. With Labor, the Coalition and One Nation all clustered near 26% (Roy Morgan), this quietly reshapes who holds power after November.

The race for Victoria is on.

This fox is following closely 🦊.

#vicpol #auspol #VicVotes26