Initialized Wealth Capital

Redefining Wealth. Reimagining the Future. Intelligence Meets Capital.

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

69% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading above their 50-day moving average, the strongest market breadth since August ✅

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

Inflation is the silent thief.

Over the last 30 years, it cut the value of $1 in half. But $1 invested in the S&P 500 became $19 – AFTER accounting for higher prices.

That’s the power of ownership.

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

The stock market's run has been historic:

US households now own more equities than real estate as a percentage of their net worth, the 3rd such occurrence over the last 65 years.

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

The S&P 500 fell 1.2% yesterday, the 29th down day in 2025 w/ a loss >1%. This is not at all unusual. In fact, the average year has had 29 large declines. Downside volatility is the price of admission for investors. Embrace this risk - for without it, there would be no reward.

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

The total # of jobs in the US increased by 0.6% over the past year, the slowest growth rate since March 2021. In the past 50 years, this type of weakness in the labor market has preceded a Recession & a spike in the Unemployment Rate 100% of the time.

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

Is a "Santa Claus" Rally on the way?

Since 1929, the S&P 500 has risen in 79% of Santa Claus Rally periods, with an average return of +1.6%.

The Santa Claus Rally covers the last 5 trading days of December and the first 2 trading days of January.

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

Update: the world didn't end. New all-time closing high today...

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

This chart is insane:

The current rally in Silver prices makes 2020 and 2008 look like a rounding error.

Now on track for the largest 12-month gain since 1979.

A new era of monetary policy is coming.

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk 24% over the past 3 years while the S&P 500 has advanced 82%, dispelling the myth that the stock market is dependent on QE to rise. $SPX

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

It's a complete free-for-all in Japan.

Japan's 10Y Note Yield just hit 1.92%, its highest level since July 2007.

10Y yields now up from -0.28% to +1.92% since 2019 as Japan prepares to raise rates into a $135 billion stimulus package

How long can Japan keep holding on?

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

Central banks have completely messed up market messaging. First Fed's schziophrenic communications sent Dec rate cut odds from 80% to 30% to 100%, and now the BOJ just send Dec rate hike odds to 80% from 20% ten days ago!

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

A staggering 180GW chasm between planned data center capacity for actual development capacity.

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

The Nov Chicago Business Barometer (formerly ISM) was released y'day. It collapsed. Something similar happened in Dec 2024, and I suggested that it was not a signal of a national downturn, but was the Chicago-area Purchasing Manager "sending a hostage note pleading for help."

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

Risk appetite remains extremely high: Assets under management in US leveraged ETFs hit a record $239 billion in Q3 2025.

This marks the 2nd consecutive quarterly increase, totaling +$77 billion.

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

Hedge Funds now have the largest exposure to Biotech in AT LEAST the last 5 years 🤯

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

Bitcoin hits 33 RSI on the weekly chart, the most oversold level in almost 3 years 🚨 What happened last time? $BTC ripped from under 20k to 126k over the next 2.5 years

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

Capex spending is on course to outpace cash returns to shareholders at big US companies, per FT:

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

Foreign demand for US assets remains strong: US equities have attracted an annualized +$132 billion in foreign net inflows, on track for the 2nd-best year in history. By comparison, the 2024 record was +$163 billion, while the 3rd-best year was +$80 billion in 2021.

[Initialized Wealth Capital @InitializedWeal]

The Financial Times has reported that Oracle's $ORCL $300 billion OpenAI deal is already underwater, now worth MINUS 74 billion