Green Slip

Experienced stat analyst bettor 🇦🇺 wanting to share AFL, NFL and Soccer Picks and help you win some money. | WC 26’ +20.71U | NFL 25 +49.64U | AFL 26 +55.53U

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Port Adelaide vs GWS

Clayton Oliver O29.5 Disposals 1U $1.84 (SB)
Ollie Wines O23.5 Disposals 1U $1.96 (SB)
Jase Burgoyne O21.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (SB)

Carlton vs Brisbane

S.Walsh 25 // W.Ashcroft 25 // L.Neale 25 SGM 1U $1.80 (SB)
Ollie Florent 20+ Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)
Adam Cerra U19.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)
Will Hayward U16.5 Disposals 1U $1.80 (PB)
Cam Rayner U16.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Ive had a bit of time so got some plays out.

St Kilda vs Sydney

Sydney ML // N.Blakey 20+ SGM 1U $1.67 (365)
Chad Warner O24.5 Disposals 1U $1.81 (SB)
Marcus Windhager U22.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365/SB/PB)
Brodie Grundy U18.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne

Caleb Daniel U24.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB/SB)
Josh Ward U23.5 Disposals 1U $1.88 (PB/SB)
Connor MacDonald U22.5 Disposals 1U (PB/SB)

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Have a super busy Saturday won’t be able to get any plays out will be back on Sunday.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Fremantle vs Bulldogs Betting Card

Tom Liberatore U22.5 Disposals 1U $2.15 (365)

Libba gets a rough matchup here, Freo just giving up the 5th least contested possessions in the last 5 games, since return he’s settled into a 50/50 half forward/mid role, and covered this line on 23 3 times out of his 4 games since injury, game should be fairly open and controlled both teams willing to give up uncontested ball in the back half which shouldn’t suit Libba.

Joel Freijah U16.5 Disposals 1U $1.91 (SB)

Freijah over in just 3 of his last 8 games, most of those coming against teams giving up a ton of uncontested ball, this is not one of those games Freo give it up in the back half but won’t give up much going forward.

Bailey Williams O21.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365/PB)

Williams has settled into Dales role nicely hitting 29 and 26 in his two games, Freo giving up some very large numbers to ball users and can see this trend continuing as they seem willing to give it up in the back half.

M.Reid 20+ // J.Clark 20+ SGM 1U $1.75 (365)

Clark pays as most of the sgm here after getting tagged last week expecting a nice bounce back against a dogs team leaking to backs, Reid had a good record at home and dogs giving up plenty of uncontested ball.

Luke Ryan 20+ Disposals 1U $1.86 (SB)

Same with Clark, Dogs leaking marks, disposals to backs and Ryan should love it had 22 earlier this year against them and should do so again.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Geelong vs Collingwood Betting Card

Nick Daicos U30.5 Disposals 1U $1.88 (SB/PB)

Mullin tag, expecting this to be a tight tag the form Daicos and Collingwood are in.

Bailey Smith U30.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (SB)

Ed Allan likely to come his way he’s kept similar players like butters and Walsh to 25 apiece.

Patrick Lipinski 19+ Disposals 1U $1.68 (TAB)

Gets the 5th easiest wing matchup in the game, in soft matchups he’s over in 5/5 games, over in 12 of his last 13 in general and over in 10/11 games at the G.

G.Miers 20 // T.Bruhn 20 // L.Humphries 20 SGM 0.75U $2.75 (365)

Like all of these guys at 20 but there line lacks value, Bruhn and Humphries get a friendly pies matchup who concede a lot to ball users and Miers should find plenty of uncontested ball after a quiet game last week with Baz likely tagged he will have to step up and create offense.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

AFL Round 20 Recap

Result = +3.57U

Good round for solid 1U staking, if we could get a couple of slight profit games into bigger we could have some big weeks but it’s a good week nonetheless and we shall build on it from here.

Collingwood @ Adelaide

W.Milera 24+ // N.Daicos 24+ // ADE +20.5 SGM 1U $1.80 (TAB)❌
Hugo Hall Kahan 20+ Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)❌
Josh Daicos U25.5 Disposals 1U $1.76 (SB)✅
Scott Pendlebury U22.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)❌
Dan Houston U21.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)✅
Jack Crisp U18.5 Disposals 1U $1.93 (SB)✅

Total Profit = -0.44U

Geelong @ Melbourne

B.Smith 29+ // T.Sparrow 19+ // J.Steele 19+ SGM 1U $2.15 (TAB)❌
Kysaiah Pickett U21.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)✅
Shaun Mannagh U18.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)✅

Total Profit = +0.74U

Fremantle @ West Coast

Murphy Reid U23.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)❌
Karl Worner U20.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (Lads/SB)✅
Jordan Clark U20.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)✅
Liam Duggan O17.5 Disposals 1U $1.85 (SB)❌

Total Profit = -0.26U

Gold Coast @ Carlton

Sam Walsh U29.5 Disposals 1U $1.82 (SB)❌
Jagga Smith U26.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (SB/PB)❌
Bodhi Uwland U23.5 Disposals 1.25U $1.87 (SB/PB)✅
Zeke Uwland U22.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)✅
Wil Powell U18.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)✅

Total Profit = +0.82U

Essendon @ Hawthorn

Hawthorn -27.5 First Half Line 1U $1.90 (SB/365)✅
Jarman Impey O25.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)✅
Jacob Farrow U18.5 Disposals 1U $1.88 (SB/PB)❌

Total Profit = +0.77U

Sydney @ GWS

Clayton Oliver O30.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (SB/365)❌
Errol Gulden O24.5 Disposals 1U $1.80 (Lads)✅
Chad Warner O23.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (SB/PB)✅
Connor Idun U21.5 Disposals 1U $1.95 (PB/SB)❌

Total Profit = -0.33U

Richmond @ Bulldogs

E.Richards 24 // M.Bontempelli 24 // WB Win SGM 1U $1.75 (SB)✅
Rylee Sanders O24.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (SB)❌
Bailey Williams O22.5 Disposals 1U $1.75 (SB)✅
Jayden Short O21.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)✅

Total Profit = +1.37U

Port Adelaide @ Brisbane

Dayne Zorko 25+ Disposals 1U $1.65 (365)✅
Jason Horne Francis U24.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)❌
Ollie Wines O22.5 Disposals 1U $1.91 (SB)✅
Ollie Wines Most Port Adelaide Disposals 0.25U $3.40 (SB)❌
Josh Dunkley U21.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (SB/PB)✅
Jaspa Fletcher U19.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)❌

Total Profit = +0.18U

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

@ntran75 Gonna need a miracle in this half😅

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Port Adelaide vs Brisbane Betting Card

Dayne Zorko 25+ Disposals 1U $1.65 (365)

After copping a hard Murdoch tag last week expecting Zorko to bounce back, over this in every game this year bar injury or tags, Port are giving up the 5th most uncontested possessions over the last 10 games.

Jason Horne Francis U24.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)

As the main guy in this midfield now I’m expecting a bit of attention, Dunkley should look after JHF around stoppage and quell his influence, has a bad record against Brisbane.

Ollie Wines O22.5 Disposals 1U $1.91 (SB)

Ollie Wines Most Port Adelaide Disposals 0.25U $3.40 (SB)

With No Butters now, Wines has to step up and he did so last week having 30 disposals against Fremantle, with a bit of attention coming for JHF I’m expecting Wines to step up.

Josh Dunkley U21.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (SB/PB)

Dunkley is only over in 5 of his last 14 games and now he might be busy playing a negating role, Port aren’t giving up a ton of contested ball and a boosted line due to having West Coast last week where there midfield dominated.

Jaspa Fletcher U19.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)

With Zorko and wilmot in the team Fletcher is only over in 3/9 games, those coming against the bulldogs, Collingwood and Essendon all very soft matchups, only took the 2 kickouts last week which was helping him get over this line when Zorko was out talking bulk kick ins.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

North Melbourne vs St Kilda Betting Card

Brad Hill O26.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)

Over in 3/4 since moving to half back, north have been leaking to half back the last 5 or so weeks.

Max Hall U22.5 Disposals 1U $1.80 (PB)

Only over in last 1 of 5 that 1 being vs the bombers, reduced cba last week and not an easy matchups.

Jy Simpkin O21.5 Dispsoals 1U $1.85 (PB)

Played full time midfield the last 2 weeks gone 25 and 32, expecting this to continue.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Bulldogs vs Richmond Betting Card

E.Richards 24 // M.Bontempelli 24 // WB Win SGM 1U $1.75 (SB)

These boys should be dominate in a soft matchup and a game expected to be dominated by the dogs.

Rylee Sanders O24.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (SB)

Sanders returned to a full time mid role last week and gets a very nice matchup here expecting a bounce back after a few quiet weeks.

Bailey Williams O22.5 Disposals 1U $1.75 (SB)

Williams played mostly half back last week still no dale had 29, now gets a very soft matchup looks to be the main distributor back there.

Jayden Short O21.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)

Short has had a couple of quiet weeks has missed in last 5 but now gets a very nice matchup here expecting a bounceback which is why were getting a lower line.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Essendon @ Hawthorn

Hawthorn -27.5 First Half Line 1U $1.90 (SB/365)

After a rare win last week expecting Essendon to revert back against the way better side, Hawthorn pretty much fully healthy again.

Jarman Impey O25.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)

Bombers have been leaky all year expecting this to continue, Impey had a massive game last week without Amon and he should find success again.

Jacob Farrow U18.5 Disposals 1U $1.88 (SB/PB)

Farrow been moved to a wing found success last week but against a top 3 restrictive side against wingers could struggle.

Sydney @ GWS

Clayton Oliver O30.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (SB/365)

Swans giving up most contested possessions, Oliver finds tons of success against similar teams, had 37 last time out against them

Errol Gulden O24.5 Disposals 1U $1.80 (Lads)

Errol had 15 CBA last week rough matchup and finished on 22 but the role is there and expecting him to find success here.

Chad Warner O23.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (SB/PB)

Since returning to the midfield full time he’s over in 5 of 7 games two misses coming up against tough uncontested matchups.

Connor Idun U21.5 Disposals 1U $1.95 (PB/SB)

Only covering against light matchups now he takes on a Sydney team that’s a bottom 5 matchups for gen defenders, only had 15 earlier this year against them.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Carlton vs Gold Coast Betting Card

N.Newman 20+ // G.Hewett 20+ // CAR +33.5 SGM 1U $1.66 (SB)

Newman game 150 only missed 3 times this year all finished on 19, Hewett been back to his ball winning ways since returning from being dropped, Gold Coast haven’t won since Jesus was a boy.

Sam Walsh U29.5 Disposals 1U $1.82 (SB)

Playing the chance game here Gold Coast giving up the 5th least disposals in the last 10 games high line he’s only over in 5 of last 15 games, below average matchup as well in terms of midfield.

Jagga Smith U26.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (SB/PB)

Same with Walsh above, over in 4 of last 10 since returning to midfield, two 27 finishes as well.

Bodhi Uwland U23.5 Disposals 1.25U $1.87 (SB/PB)

Love this one here Rioli returned last week should hamper his kickout duties, Carlton have been a brutal matchup for these type of backs, and any backs in general, line simply too high.

Zeke Uwland U22.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)

Zeke returned to the wing last week although he had 26 he played a dogs outfit who concede heaps to wingers and Gold Coast dominated the footy, now gets a Carlton outfit giving up the 4th least possessions in the last 10 games.

Wil Powell U18.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)

Same as Uwland reasoning matchup wise, boosted line due to a rare spike in disposals against a soft dogs matchup, only over in 38% of games.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Double Header Betting Card

Geelong @ Melbourne

B.Smith 29+ // T.Sparrow 19+ // J.Steele 19+ SGM 1U $2.15 (TAB)

No tag expected for Baz and Steele and sparrow been consistent all year gets a nice contested matchup.

Kysaiah Pickett U21.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)

Mullin Tag

Shaun Mannagh U18.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)

Mannagh under an injury cloud, over in only 22% of games, Melbourne not a very easy matchup kept hawthorn half forwards quiet and others.

West Coast @ Fremantle

Murphy Reid U23.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)

Had a massive impact last time out against west coast expecting more attention, reverted back to limited mid time, over in only 39% of games, West Coast fairly restrictive at home.

Karl Worner U20.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (Lads/SB)

West Coast neutral matchup for Worner, over in just 33% of games, much more restrictive at home like I said.

Jordan Clark U20.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)

Won the medal last time out against west coast expecting the Murdoch matchup even if it’s not a full tag enough attention will not help Clark.

Liam Duggan O17.5 Disposals 1U $1.85 (SB)

Maric comes in for Baker expecting Duggan to move back to half back where freo are giving up mostly to, over in 14/17 at half back this year and had 21 last time out against Freo.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Collingwood vs Adelaide Betting Card

W.Milera 24+ // N.Daicos 24+ // ADE +20.5 SGM 1U $1.80 (TAB)

Expecting Milera to have a good day gets a light matchup vs Collingwood and No Keane or Laird, should take majority of kick ins.

Hugo Hall Kahan 20+ Disposals 1U $1.87 (365)

Same as Milera above here light matchup, 18 and 18 in last two not the easiest matchup tho now no Keane should have more of a role.

Josh Daicos U25.5 Disposals 1U $1.76 (SB)

Daicos didn’t train with an ankle issue now gets the hardest matchup in the game 18th ranked against ball users and giving up the least uncontested possessions.

Scott Pendlebury U22.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)

Pendles coming off a 5 day break should be on limited TOG like the last 3 weeks hanging around that 65% mark he’s only hitting in light matchups and does most of his damage in uncontested ball, comes up against crows who give up the least and had only 16 disposals earlier this year against them.

Dan Houston U21.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)

Same as Josh Daicos, with the matchup, and Howe returns, over in just 2 of last 8 with him in the side and sees a noticeable increase in touches when he’s not playing like last week.

Jack Crisp U18.5 Disposals 1U $1.93 (SB)

Comes up against a bottom 5 most restrictive side to wingers will be playing mostly wing with swadling coming out and Howe coming in, over in only 4 of last 9

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Mbappe Golden Boot at $2.30✅✅

Nice read here.
Mbappe played in an all star game while Messi played Spain as Argentina were only able to muster up 2 shots.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Round 19 AFL Recap

-3.35U this week, one of my worst for a while, will definitely be looking into more unders, data shows they are more successful in the long run, but definitely a good reality check. Highlights for the weeks included $6.00 Bailey Williams 24+ Disposals and a hawthorn Richmond sweep, but definitely will be better in the future.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

GWS vs Essendon Betting Card

C.Oliver 30+ // L.Ash 25+ // GWS Win SGM 1U $1.75 (365)

Bombers couldn’t stop a nosebleed these guys should rack it up.

Lachie Whitfield 30+ Disposals 1U $1.69 (PB)

Same as above

Toby Bedford O16.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)

Bedford has become a full time midfielder without tagging duties the last 3 weeks he’s over in 2/3 and had 23 last week seems like he is really developing I expect this to continue against a poor bombers outfit.

Conor Stone 13+ Disposals 1U $1.83 (Dabble)
🪜19+ Disposals 0.25U $6.25 (Dabble)

Interesting one here over in 3/6 but his time on ground has been all over the place but has settled the last 2 weeks but he’s come up against 18th and 15th ranked teams at defending wingers leading to 8 disposals in both games, but now he gets the easiest matchup in footy and I like his chances coming straight in for Harvey Thomas.

Archie Roberts 18+ Kicks // Callaghan 25+ SGM 1U $1.66 (SB)

Roberts came right back in last week and stayed in that pig role and took 7 kickouts, over in his last 10/11 games.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Bulldogs vs Suns Betting Card

Rhylee West 18+ Disposals 1U $1.76 (SB)
🪜22+ Disposals 0.25U $4.00 (SB)

Had 19 CBA last week for 23 disposals looked good running through the midfield, expect him to stay in there at least part time Libba comes out for sanders so still the same mix.

John Noble O24.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)

Over in 65% of games this year and last 10 he’s averaging 27.3 disposals, missed in 3 of the last 10 which was against North, when Dimma moved him to a wing against Freo which he reverted from and Adelaide last week the most restrictive team against ball users and had 18 going into the last before getting injured, now he gets the dogs who leak to general defenders.

N.Anderson 24 // E.Richards 24 // J.Noble 19 SGM 1U $1.75 (SB)

Expecting a high disposals game between two big name midfields and Anderson and Richards have been great all year.

Beau Addinsall 19+ Disposals 1U $1.95 (Dabble)

Addinsall is over in 2/4 games but he’s come up against hawthorn, freo and Adelaide who rank 18th, 17th and 15th in disposals allowed to wingers, and now he gets a matchup vs the 4th easiest, his TOG has been increasing since his debut too and had 26 against Collingwood in a similar light matchup.

Bailey Williams 24+ Disposals 0.2U $6.00 (SB)

Light stake here, chance he goes back with no Dale, we’ve seen him play there before and play well, and there is no real notable half back outside of Bramble.

[Green Slip @InsideEdge00]

Hawthorn vs Richmond Betting Card

Looking to salvage this average week

Jarman Impey O23.5 Disposals 1U $1.65 (365)

Impey is in a great spot to flourish no Amon, Impey will be in for big responsibilities, Tiges have been giving up all year to ball users and they give up 2nd most uncontested ball.

Connor MacDonald O21.5 Disposals 1U $1.87 (PB)

MacDonald should see more mid time with day coming out but no midfielder coming in and Nash remaining out.

Josh Battle O20.5 Disposals 1U $1.80 (PB)

Battle returns and gets a lovely matchup loves playing the tiges has had 33, 28, 25 in the last 3 against them and the hawks should dominate this game and control the ball.

J.Impey 20+ // J.Sicily 20+ SGM 1.25U $1.72 (365)

Same reasoning above for both love these 2 Richmond very leaky to defenders in general and boosted roles with Amon out.