InsideMacro

Im a cat.

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

@JJJfff045 @KobeissiLetter I would say the Job market in general is decent right now.

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

@KobeissiLetter Markets can rally for 9 weeks and nobody cares. One normal pullback and the headline is “-$1 trillion of market cap in under 3 hours."

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

Poll from GS on the upcoming IPO wave. GS clients see more pressure overall rather than a boost to the ongoing AI rally.

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

@AndreasSteno Haha, I mean, at least the market does not really seem to believe it if you look at yields. Would be funny though.

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

@TedPillows $Vix is not dumping lol

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

@DeItaone SpaceX already being oversubscribed shows that demand for these assets is still huge. Lets see if the upcomming IPOs bring fresh capital into the market, or simply pull liquidity away from existing AI/tech winners.

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

@pplsartofwar @KobeissiLetter That’s exactly the risk. Leisure & hospitality can look strong in the payroll data, but it is very exposed to the consumer. Households are already cutting back because of higher prices, and if credit conditions tighten further, this part of the labor market could turn quickly.

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

@hamptonism

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

@AdrianL84591 @KobeissiLetter Fair point! Some of the leisure strength is probably summer/World Cup related, but since NFP is seasonally adjusted, the +70k is still notable. It just makes the composition less clean.

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

Not Macro related, but some interesting stats about the Worldcup:

- 5,000,000,000. The number of people estimated to have watched some part of the 2022 World Cup Finals

- 173,850. The largest ever World Cup crowd, Uruguay vs Brazil in Rio in 1950

- 300. The lowest recorded attendance, Romania vs Peru in 1930

- 210. The number of countries to have taken part in a World Cup

- Eight. The number of countries to have ever won it: Brazil (5), Germany (4), Italy (4), Argentina (3), France (2), Uruguay (2), England (1), and Spain (1)

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

@zerohedge This will make life even harder for Warsh. Hard to justify rate cuts in this enviroment.

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

The +127k are mainly driven by leisure & hospitality (+70k), local government (+55k) and health care (+35k). Financial activities lost jobs (-22k), while most other major sectors were little changed. This gives the Fed little reason to rush into easing.

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

NFP and Unemployment Rate release today.

GS estimates a rise of 60k in May instead of 85k. Also watch out for hourly earnings.

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

@Barchart Look at the peers like $NKE, same dynamic.

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

@Hedgeye So no artificial demand, at least in the S&P 500. Sucks when you have to stick to the rules, right?

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

Summary of Today:
US equities closed mixed but with clear broadening under the surface.

The main theme was rotation: mega-cap/AI supply continued, likely as investors funded other trades and upcoming issuance. Tech was under pressure, but financials, healthcare/medtech, industrials and small caps caught a bid. (see picture)

AVGO dropped after earnings, while the broader market still managed to shrug it off. Momentum remained weak.

Macro was supportive: VIX fell sharply to 15.3, crude dropped, 10Y yields were slightly lower, gold rose and Bitcoin stayed weak.

[InsideMacro @InsideMacro]

@KobeissiLetter The jump in ISM Services Prices is worth watching, I think, but the market should focus on the extent to which these costs get passed through.