Inside Orchard

Thought-provoking and insightful essays and podcast episodes about the technology industry. New analysis on Fridays. Founder/author: @NeilCybart

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

"Apple got into digital mapping in 2012 in part due to Google keeping certain navigation features away from the iPhone. Jump ahead 14 years, and Google is going out of its way to show its AI features working on Apple hardware. Talk about a reversal."

From my @InsideOrchard essay: The iPhone Won Google I/O

https://t.co/RhyyxdTUg6

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

My newest @InsideOrchard essay / podcast episode:

The iPhone Won Google I/O

https://t.co/IZEgoKDgQp

Going out of its way to show Apple hardware on stage at Google I/O was an unforced error on Google’s part that amounted to giving its own hardware ambitions a gut punch.

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

Berkshire Hathaway is buying $10B of Alphabet equity in a private placement.

Good time to link to this essay that I wrote just two weeks ago:

Berkshire Hathaway Will Embrace Tech

https://t.co/UXSGIWjLEH

[Inside Orchard @InsideOrchard]

New Essay / Podcast Episode:

The iPhone Won Google I/O

https://t.co/bZPCxcD8Fi

Going out of its way to show Apple hardware on stage at Google I/O was an unforced error on Google’s part that amounted to giving its own hardware ambitions a gut punch.

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

If it feels like there is a race under way when it comes to IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI), there is legitimate fear out there that the market may not be able to get through all three IPOs. I wrote about this topic back in February.

SpaceX is going to be first to an IPO in a few weeks. Anthropic has the inside track to be second with an IPO, likely in the fall. That would leave OpenAI exposed as the third IPO, possibly in early 2027.

I would not underestimate second-order effects and second-order thinking related to this IPO race.

Read more here: https://t.co/vBjfnl3QJs

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

Ferrari Luce’s exterior has been revealed.

Both the interior (interface) and exterior were designed by LoveFrom (Jony Ive and Marc Newson’s design consultancy). The interior and interface were unveiled earlier this year.

Back in February when the interior was revealed, I wrote about the Ferrari Luce.

Jony Ive’s Ferrari
https://t.co/87FMP3ItF6

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

My newest @InsideOrchard essay was focused on Berkshire Hathaway.

I make the case that Berkshire will embrace the tech industry (tech stocks) as Greg Abel approaches Berkshire’s equity portfolio differently than what existed with Buffett & Munger.

Prospects of Abel beating the market index over time are not good. This will lead to a different portfolio composition for Berkshire that will reflect a Silicon Valley embrace. Apple and Google (~$20B stake) are likely just the beginning.

https://t.co/KCGF7kGAzW

[Inside Orchard @InsideOrchard]

NEW Essay / Podcast Episode:

Berkshire Hathaway Will Embrace Tech

https://t.co/H85Ugdt2hC

When examining Abel’s background, strengths, and weaknesses, as well as Berkshire’s standing, a picture of how Berkshire Hathaway will look post-Buffett is starting to come into focus.

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

My newest @InsideOrchard essay examined Netflix and Spotify.

From Wall Street’s perspective, something is wrong with the companies. On a combined basis, Netflix's and Spotify's market caps have declined by nearly 40% or ~$250 billion from peak levels. Is Wall Street being fair in its pessimistic assessment? Wall Street trading behavior rarely tells the full story as the market is known to misprice business fundamentals.

Taking a closer look at each company, the broader stories surrounding Netflix’s & Spotify’s businesses do seem to have entered new chapters. The essay (linked below) examines those changes and where Netflix and Spotify find themselves.

https://t.co/e59s6ZIrUi

[Inside Orchard @InsideOrchard]

NEW Essay / Podcast Episode:

Keep an Eye on Netflix and Spotify

https://t.co/4YHwU0Xmov

There is something about Netflix’s and Spotify’s businesses that continues to concern me.

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

It increasingly feels like some of the prevailing assumptions underpinning new media’s growth over the past decade has been a mirage.

Take a closer look at the new newsletters, podcasts, videos, Substacks, and livestreams entering the market. You undoubtedly are seeing some of these in your “For you” feed on X.

Instead of depending on their audiences for financial sustainability, these new media outfits are relying on sponsors (both disclosed and in many cases undisclosed) and other shady financial arrangements (i.e. pay to play schemes in which sponsors get interviews and exposure) that risks authenticity and objectivity. It’s becoming a stain on new media.

I discussed the topic, including why this trend is unfolding, in my newest @InsideOrchard essay available here:
https://t.co/tfZYNxcFMJ

[Inside Orchard @InsideOrchard]

NEW Essay / Podcast Episode:

New Media’s Authenticity Problem

https://t.co/I0QAuw9viL

As it becomes easier to launch a new media company, it’s becoming more difficult to find and keep an engaged audience offering financial support. The innocence in new media is disappearing.

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

Before I took some time off earlier this month, I published an Inside Orchard essay on OpenAI/TBPN. The essay is found below.

I think the essay accurately captures OpenAI’s motivation in the deal.

One is unable to say “the OpenAI deal isn’t about the livestream/podcast.” Of course it is. However, OpenAI has a larger goal in mind here than just controlling a tech publication. OpenAI is struggling mightily when it comes to connecting with people.

The essay also covers two factors that gives OpenAI’s TBPN bet low odds of working out.

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

NEW ESSAY:

Acquiring TBPN Is an OpenAI Hail Mary Pass

https://t.co/uYVNAsppUe

Ahead of an IPO, OpenAI acquiring TBPN as a way to speak to consumers differently is a Hail Mary pass with low odds of succeeding.

[Inside Orchard @InsideOrchard]

Acquiring TBPN Is an OpenAI Hail Mary Pass

https://t.co/ShqCGXfV9T

Ahead of an IPO, OpenAI has been making one change after another in a bid to clean up house. Acquiring TBPN as a way to speak to consumers differently is a Hail Mary pass with low odds of succeeding.

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

NEW ESSAY:

AI Is in a Weird Place Right Now

https://t.co/KqOMUzbHib

We discuss nine AI developments that have been on my radar including chatbot platform craze cooling, NVIDIA not convincing Wall Street, and a $599 MacBook being the leading contender for device of the year.

[Inside Orchard @InsideOrchard]

AI Is in a Weird Place Right Now

https://t.co/oBkTk7kWMa

We discuss nine AI developments that have been on my radar including chatbot platform craze cooling, NVIDIA not convincing Wall Street, and a $599 MacBook being the leading contender for device of the year.

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

The Metaverse flop is once again in the news. Feels a bit like beating a dead horse though as this was all discussed back in January when Meta pivoted away from VR. At the time, I examined what happened and why it was an inevitable move.
https://t.co/rPv715j1Eu

[Inside Orchard @InsideOrchard]

The Apple Silicon Renaissance

https://t.co/4e1bmhNr06

After spending some time with MacBook Neo, the takeaway isn’t that the laptop is being rethought or rejuvenated. Instead, we are still seeing ramifications associated with Apple’s original bet on custom silicon.

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

Anthropic has grabbed a number of pretty convincing wins in recent months. This has allowed the company’s brand to mature to mean something other than “not ChatGPT.” I don’t think consensus is fully appreciating the change taking place.
https://t.co/1kkCpwtoNZ