Nick from The Inside Analyst

Sanity-checking stocks through a structured Financial X-Ray.
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[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

A piece of butter costs $3, a bottle of milk 2$

We have a good instinct for what groceries are worth.

But when we see a stock trading at $100, most investors have no idea.

Is it expensive?

As an equity analyst, I built The Inside Analyst to help answer that questions.

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

@Cheesentost @wealthmatica You are right, and the government will agree to that! But in the long-run competition will increase and margins will collapse. This is a classical example of paying 30$ for a cup of coffee (even though it tastes well) :)

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

@PaulMeedkz @TheRayMyers My concern is about cyclicality and fundamental strength. Here is a short analysis on $AMD, happy to hear contradictory arguments :)

https://t.co/L4b4nD4NeA

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

$MU looks exceptional again.

But it’s not new this time - it’s the cycle!

https://t.co/Y7c2vX2hlc

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

A stock isn't expensive because it's good. It's expensive because everyone knows it's good.

That distinction matters if you look for profits.

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

@TheValueTrade Of course $NBIS is the kind of investment everybody likes. From the institutional side we monitor

free cash flow
returns on capital
customer concentration
long-term contract durability

All of which must improve to justify further upside.

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

@StockSavvyShay I never thought we'd actually flag $NVDA as cheap again in our equity research department.

But financials caught up and support the price level.

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

@qualtrim $V and $MA are both fantastic businesses.

exceptional financial strength
strong competitive positioning & moat
durable growth engines

But they become average investments because they are priced too efficiently.

https://t.co/VPZsO2hy26

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

I built The Inside Analyst after years of work as an equity analyst and investment banker.

Simple goal: I wanted retail investors to have the same resources and advantages institutions have so they can find attractive investment opportunities.

https://t.co/zemHZC85Sf

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

Why do we spend 40 hours a week sweating for money, but refuse to spend 4 hours a year figuring out how to invest it?

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

@Banana3Stocks From an institutional side we look at $NOW and see characteristics of a growth normalization paradox.

Expectations reshape while the underlying business is getting stronger - usually a green flag.

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

@antibearthesis Recently looked at $SOFI with the equity research team. Amazing business but economics are not where they should be, given the current valuation level.

ROE, Net margin and equity base to watch.
Full story summarised here:

https://t.co/RuCwFQwqVi

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

@qualtrim Extending the image above: In equity research we translate fundamentals into fair values.

$V and $MA both deserve premium valuation as the fulfil one important human desire: predictability!

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

@StockMKTNewz $AVGO outran it's financials
EBITDA ~34bn, growth ~25%, free cash flow ~26bn, ROIC ~18%
All good!

But as equity analysts we also see:
FCF yield ~1.3%
EV /EBITDA ~50x
P/E ~ 85x

That is premium valuation requiring even better metrics!

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

Some businesses are wonderful:

Strong margins
High cash generation
High capital efficiency

and yet they are still average investments. Here is why?

https://t.co/VPZsO2hy26

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

Microsoft is a cash cow, but will the heavy AI investment pay off?

This is what ultimately determines if the stock rises or stagnates.

As equity analysts we monitor capital efficiency and capital intensity closely.

https://t.co/TEp7sHM6vH

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

@brewmarkets Some other fun facts we watch from the institutional side.

$GOOG M&A activity, stock-based compansation, buyback timing, non-recurring items and earnings beats vs misses.

Why? Because they tell us if managers care about the shareholders...

[Nick from The Inside Analyst @Inside_Analyst]

@KobeissiLetter $HPE stock shot up – but the company shows plenty of metrics that still need to improve. As equity analysts we're concerned about:

Capital efficiency below peers
EBITDA margin not stable
Debt rising to extreme levels