🚨UK Inflation Just Ran Hotter Than Expected… and Washington Paid 5.469% to Borrow!🚨
👉October 21 Watchouts: What was bullish, bearish or mixed?
🔴= Bearish |🟢= Bullish |🟡= Mixed |⏳= Pending
👉Inflation heated up in the UK, US crude stocks fell & Washington paid 5.469% on its latest 20-year bond auction… not a simple green-light day for gold & silver!
🔴UK inflation: A potential rates headwind
CPI rose to 3.5% from 3.1%, above the Reuters poll’s 3.4% forecast.
🔥Core inflation climbed to 2.8% & services inflation reached 3.7%. That can make easier monetary policy harder to justify. Inflation protection matters to stackers, but higher interest-rate expectations can work against metals in the meantime.
🟡US oil inventories: Draws… but not across the board. EIA reported crude inventories down 3.1 million barrels to 412.5 million. Gasoline fell 3.0 million, while distillates rose 1.7 million.
🔥Less crude & gasoline in storage can support energy prices, but the distillate build pulls the other way. For metals, an energy-driven inflation squeeze can strengthen the purchasing-power argument while also keeping rates higher. Neither outcome is automatic!
🟡20-year Treasury auction: Mixed demand signals. The $13 billion reopening cleared at 5.469%, with bid-to-cover of 2.73, up from September’s 2.57.
🔥More bids per dollar offered doesn’t tell the whole story. InvestingLive reported a small 0.9-basis-point tail: buyers required a slightly higher yield than the pre-auction market indicated. That’s not a failed auction, but it isn’t an unqualified demand win either.
🟡All-week backdrop: Fed blackout... The scheduled policy-communications blackout remains in effect ahead of the October 27–28 meeting. Less routine Fed guidance does not mean less market risk.
👉These labels describe potential implications for gold & silver, not verified causes of today’s price moves.
🦀Crustacean Nation: When inflation rises but bond yields stay high, do you keep buying on schedule… or wait for a better all-in price on physical metal?
👉Sound off below!
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
👉This week’s original Watchouts:
https://t.co/XJUO1QBzSp
🦀CRUSTACEAN NATION… we’re taking the conversation to Tiger Stacker’s channel TONIGHT!
🔥“What International Stacker Is Doing Right Now Is Insane!”
👉With the Canada mission about to begin, there’s a LOT to talk about! 👀🇨🇦
⏰ 7 PM ET
🎥 Set your reminder: https://t.co/y80ruJHQKv
👉 Come hang out, bring your questions & drop a 🦀 in Tiger’s chat so he knows the Nation showed up!
🚨Who’s joining us?
200-year-old Japanese money for just $25?! 👀🇯🇵 Cody Boushey shows off hansatsu notes with intricate designs—and a piece of history that won’t break the bank!
Would YOU add one to your collection? 🦀
Learn more about gold & silver:
https://t.co/idctNH3tSX
Not financial advice. Stay stacked! 🦀
@patroticbeauti If they still had full control we would be under $20 still…. Also research the Hunt Brothers in 1980. You can’t just look at charts you need to look at the market conditions at the time. If you want better understanding of the markets check out my YouTube channel.
🚨$300 to $500 Silver by Summer? Michael Oliver Just Tripled Down on His Extremely Bullish Forecast!🚨
👉Michael Oliver — veteran technician with over 40 years of experience using Momentum Structural Analysis — is sticking firmly to his guns.
👉He believes silver is poised for a parabolic explosion & could reach $300–$500 per ounce by the end of this summer.
👉His key reasons:
🔥The current correction is healthy and normal in a major bull market.
🔥Long-term technical patterns (including the massive cup & handle) remain fully intact.
🔥Fundamentals (structural deficits + surging industrial demand) are stronger than ever.
👉Michael Oliver’s Track Record:
✅ Correctly called the 1987 stock market crash well in advance,
✅ Turned very bullish on gold near the 2015–2016 bottom (~$1,050–$1,100).
✅ Accurately called the major gold top in 2011–2012 and stayed bearish for years.
✅ Was strongly bullish on silver throughout 2025, correctly forecasting the major breakout above $100.
❌ Has occasionally been early or missed on short-term timing during corrections.
❌ His current $300–$500 silver by summer 2026 target is considered extremely aggressive by many analysts.
🚨Crustacean Nation: When a technician with this kind of long-term track record calls for triple-digit silver this year, it definitely gets your attention.
👉Full interview: https://t.co/G54yB66i2E
👉What do you think — realistic or too aggressive?
👉Drop your honest price target below 👇🦀🪙
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
A silver quarter in his grocery change started it all! 👀🥈 Meeting a fellow stacker at the FUN Coin Show and hearing the story behind decades of collecting.
What’s the best coin YOU’VE ever found in your change? 🪙🦀
Learn more about gold & silver:
https://t.co/idctNH3tSX
Not financial advice. Stay stacked! 🦀
🚨LIVE NOW: Gold & Silver… Weak Housing! Will the Fed Blink?
👉Housing is flashing warning signs, a tanker was hit near Hormuz & your grocery budget still feels the squeeze. What matters for gold, silver & YOUR stack? Let’s break it down LIVE!
🎥WATCH LIVE:
https://t.co/gbVmzKM9cy
⚡THIS MORNING’S BIG STORIES:
🏠Weak housing: Will the Fed blink?
🚢Tanker hit near Hormuz!
🛒Same money… less food!
🔒Toronto’s massive gold heist!
🥇Fake gold for a A$7,500 bike!
🪙Who controls silver as money?
🇨🇦 Canada, Mike D & Marcia!
📅Today’s Weekly Watchouts
🦀Your questions answered LIVE!
👉We’re watching gold, silver, the dollar & Treasury yields, but a chart is only part of the story. Protecting purchasing power, checking your metal & knowing who controls your ounces matter too!
🔥Tomorrow, Commander Mike D & I head to Canada for TWO Hidden Hoard & Meet & Greet stops… then we bring Marcia the massive coin collection this community helped build!
🦀Crustacean Nation: What’s driving your next purchase: price, premiums… or protecting your buying power?
👉Join us LIVE & sound off!
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
🚨Gold & Silver’s Next Test Starts Sunday Night… Here’s What to Watch This Week! ����
👉China kicks things off Sunday night… Treasury auctions test bond demand midweek… Friday brings a global growth check!
📖This is your quick calendar. My full report explains what each release measures, the potentially bullish & bearish implications, & the details worth watching for your stack.
👉 Read the full breakdown:
https://t.co/XJUO1QBzSp
🚨All times Eastern (EDT). Schedules can change; flash PMI dates are provisional.
📅SUNDAY, OCTOBER 18
9:30 PM: China residential property prices.
10:00 PM: China Q3 GDP & September industrial production, retail sales, investment & property data.
👉China’s Monday-morning releases arrive Sunday night for us!
📅MONDAY, OCTOBER 19
3:45–10:30 AM: LME Metals Seminar.
8:30 AM: Canada September CPI.
10:00 AM: NAHB Housing Market Index.
11:30 AM: Bank of Canada business & consumer surveys.
👉Builder confidence measures sentiment, not how many homes are being built.
📅TUESDAY, OCTOBER 20
2:00 AM: UK labor-market report, including employment & earnings.
8:30 AM: US housing starts & building permits.
10:00 AM: US pending home sales.
👉Starts, permits & signed sales contracts measure different stages of the housing market.
📅WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 21
2:00 AM: UK September CPI.
10:30 AM: EIA weekly petroleum report.
1:00 PM: $13 billion 20-year Treasury reopening.
👉Watch bond demand & whether any yield move survives the initial reaction.
📅THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22
8:30 AM: US initial & continuing jobless claims.
10:00 AM: US Leading Economic Index.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
1:00 PM: $26 billion five-year TIPS auction.
4:30 PM: Fed balance sheet update, H.4.1.
6:00 PM: Australia flash PMIs.
7:30 PM: Japan September national CPI.
8:30 PM: Japan flash PMIs.
👉 Japan’s Friday CPI lands Thursday evening here. TIPS put inflation-adjusted yields in focus earlier in the day.
📅FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23
1:00 AM: India flash PMI.
2:00 AM: UK September retail sales.
3:15 AM: France flash PMIs.
3:30 AM: Germany flash PMIs.
4:00 AM: Eurozone flash PMIs.
4:30 AM: UK flash PMIs.
9:45 AM: US flash PMIs.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan final October consumer sentiment & inflation expectations.
3:30 PM: CFTC Commitments of Traders report. COMEX weekly gold & silver options expiration; no time specified in the report.
👉PMIs are business surveys, not direct measurements of silver demand. COT normally reflects Tuesday’s positions, not Friday’s live trading.
📅SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24
👉No scheduled release listed in this week’s report. Review weekly closes, real yields & the dollar.
👉Did the week’s headlines actually improve the price you can buy or sell at?
🏦ALL WEEK: FED BLACKOUT: The communications blackout runs October 17–29. As of the report’s October 17 check, no Fed leadership speeches or appearances were listed for this week. Schedules can change, and routine statistical releases continue.
🔥ALSO WATCH: Energy & shipping developments, China’s policy response, the dollar, real yields & physical premiums. These don’t come with a fixed release time.
🦀Crustacean Nation: Which matters most to your stack this week: China’s factories, Treasury yields or Friday’s growth surveys?
👉Sound off below!
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
📖The calendar tells you WHEN. The full report explains WHAT TO WATCH.
👉Get the full breakdown before the numbers hit:
https://t.co/XJUO1QBzSp
🚢A Tanker Hit Near Hormuz… Another Reminder That Gold & Silver Don’t Trade in a Vacuum!🚨
👉Two fresh reports from overnight into October 21 are worth watching:
🔥Near the Strait of Hormuz, an unidentified projectile struck a tanker 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman. Reuters, citing UKMTO, reports the fire was extinguished & all crew were safe.
💥In northern Iraq, Reuters reported a missile fired at an Iranian Kurdish opposition camp near Erbil. Rudaw reported projectiles arriving from Iran.
🥇🥈Here’s the stacker angle: trouble around Hormuz can put energy costs, shipping & inflation back in focus. Gold can attract defensive buying, but higher inflation can also keep interest rates elevated. Silver has industrial demand riding alongside its monetary role.
👉A dangerous headline doesn’t guarantee a green or a red candle… but it can change the risks behind the chart.
🦀Crustacean Nation: When geopolitical risk rises, do you change your stacking plans… or stick to your regular purchases?
👉Sound off below!
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
👉Sources, October 21:
Reuters: Tanker incident
https://t.co/Q1PYwJwRXv
Reuters: Kurdish camp report
https://t.co/yWT2LH2Vai
Rudaw: Additional reporting
https://t.co/fLcwBheijk
🇨🇦 Thieves Stole Her Mother’s Coin Collection… The Crustacean Nation Helped Build Her a New One!🚨
👉Tomorrow, Commander Mike D & I are headed to CANADA!
👉We’ve got TWO Hidden Hoard & Subscriber Meet & Greet stops along the way:
🦀TORONTO: Saturday, October 24 • 10 AM Eastern
🦀VANCOUVER: Sunday, October 25 • 5 PM Pacific
🥈Come hang out, talk gold & silver, grab a Crab Coin & join the hunt! The Hidden Hoard is sponsored by Hero Bullion.
🔥But the heart of this trip is Marcia!
👉Her late mother’s coin collection was stolen during a wildfire evacuation. You can’t replace the memories attached to those coins… but this community stepped up to help her start again.
👉Now we’re bringing her the massive new collection YOU helped build! The binder now weighs over 13 lbs!
👉Coins from different places. Contributions from people she’s never met. One community coming together to do something good!
👉This is more than stacking ounces. This is the Crustacean Nation showing up for someone who’s been through a lot.
👉Exact meetup spots will go out to attendees before each event. We’ll share Marcia’s handoff after it happens, with her permission.
👉Sign up for the Hidden Hoard here:
https://t.co/hKEoDPH2rq
🦀Crustacean Nation: Who’s joining us in Toronto or Vancouver? And to everyone who helped make this possible… THANK YOU!
👉The Nation rises!🦀🇨🇦
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
🥇He Checked the Weight… Then Traded a A$7,500 Bike for FAKE Gold!
👉Three bars with Credit Suisse branding... Serial numbers & Separate cases.
👉The man weighed them before handing over his electric mountain bike. But the bars weren’t gold.
🔒Here’s the painful part: he kept them in his safe for almost TWO YEARS before a social-media warning prompted him to take them to police, who determined they were fake.
👉The trade happened in November 2023 in Batemans Bay, Australia. On October 19, 2026, David Robert Meade was sentenced after pleading guilty to deception. The court ordered a two-year community corrections order, A$7,500 compensation & a A$1,500 fine, according to ABC News.
🥇Here’s the stacker lesson: a scale tells you weight. It does NOT tell you what’s inside the bar. A familiar logo, serial number & convincing case aren’t a substitute for authenticating the metal.
🔥If you’re accepting bullion in a private trade, arrange independent testing with a reputable bullion dealer BEFORE handing over your property. Agree on that upfront. If the other person refuses, you can walk away.
👉A safe protects what you put inside it… it doesn’t turn a counterfeit into gold!
🦀Crustacean Nation: Would you accept gold in a private trade, and what would you require before making the exchange?
👉Sound off below!
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
👉Source: ABC News, October 19, 2026
https://t.co/WoYUDsDZ8x
🚨Roughly 400 Kilos of Gold Stolen… Now the Court Is Hearing the Fight Over the Loot!🚨
👉“Everyone got money and I’m stuck here...”
👉That’s a line from a wiretap attributed in court to former Air Canada employee Parmpal Sidhu, according to National Post’s October 20 reporting. The recordings captured angry demands for money & complaints that others had abandoned him.
🥇Missed the original heist? Here’s what happened:
👉On April 17, 2023, a shipment arrived at Toronto Pearson Airport from Zurich carrying roughly 400 kilograms of gold, described by police as 6,600 bars, plus C$2.5 million in foreign currency. Police put the gold’s value at more than C$20 million.
👉The shipment was moved into an Air Canada cargo warehouse where police say a driver presented fraudulent shipping paperwork based on a seafood shipment collected the previous day. The gold & cash were loaded onto his truck… & he drove away.
🔥That’s the detail that should get a stacker’s attention: a fortune in real gold handed over against bogus paperwork.
👉Now, more than three years later, the trial is exposing the alleged fallout. Sidhu has pleaded not guilty, & his trial continues.
👉According to the October 20 report, only about ONE kilogram of the gold has been recovered.
🥇For physical stackers, “secure storage” is more than a strong vault door. Who can authorize a release? Who checks the documents? What happens when someone inside the chain of custody can access your metal?
👉Your gold can be real… & the weak point can still be the people handling it. If you don't hold it, you don't truly own it!
🦀Crustacean Nation: What gives you more confidence: storing your own ounces, or trusting professional security? What would you need to know before handing over custody?
👉Sound off below!
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
👉Sources:
CityNews: October 20 trial coverage
https://t.co/37Caad75WV
AP: police account of the fraudulent paperwork
https://t.co/eA7RTWm15f
🛒Grocery Inflation Slowed…But Your Old Grocery Budget Still Comes Up Short!👀
👉The Great Depression taught a generation to stretch every meal: beans, cornmeal, leftovers, nothing wasted. We’re not in 1932… but those lessons still matter when the grocery budget gets squeezed.
👉Buying the cheaper cut... Stretching leftovers... Putting something back before checkout... You don’t need a Depression headline to understand what a squeezed food budget feels like.
📊The latest BLS report shows grocery prices were 1.8% higher in September than a year earlier, even after slipping 0.1% that month.
🔥Here’s the part that gets lost: a smaller inflation number doesn’t undo the price increases that came before it. Prices rising more slowly is NOT the same as getting your old buying power back!
👉Simple example: a grocery basket that climbs from $100 to $130 doesn’t return to $100 when inflation slows to 2%. Another 2% increase makes it $132.60. That’s an illustration, not the measured increase for every household’s groceries.
🥩And your household doesn’t buy the entire inflation index. What ends up in YOUR cart matters. So do package sizes, substitutions & how far your income stretches.
🥇🥈That’s why the stacker conversation goes beyond “How many dollars is my metal worth?” The deeper question is: what can those dollars actually BUY?
🔥As a physical stacker, I’m not just chasing a bigger dollar number. The goal is protecting what my money can BUY. A growing balance means less if the grocery cart keeps getting smaller!
👉Our grandparents knew how to stretch a meal, keep a pantry & waste less. Those skills are useful without declaring another Great Depression. A stack & a stocked pantry serve different jobs... ounces don’t cook dinner!
🦀Crustacean Nation: What used to be an ordinary grocery purchase that now feels like a luxury? And what have you stopped buying?
👉Sound off below!
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
👉Sources:
Article that prompted the discussion:
https://t.co/l3Jm7Wkmdd
BLS: September 2026 consumer prices
🚨Who Gets to Turn Silver Into Money? Britain Took Up That Question 134 Years Ago Today!🇬🇧
🪙This Day In Sound Money History: October 21
🇬🇧1892: Britain appointed the Herschell Committee to investigate India’s currency. One proposal on the table: stop private holders from bringing silver to Indian mints to be coined into rupees, & move toward a gold standard.
👉The committee later recommended closing that route. Silver rupees didn’t disappear. The government retained control over further coinage. What changed was private holders’ access to turning their bullion into official money.
👉That’s a distinction worth remembering when we talk about silver’s monetary role today. The metal can stay the same while the rules around it change.
🦀Crustacean Nation: If silver regained a larger monetary role, would you prefer government-minted coins or privately minted bullion for your stack?
👉Sound off below!
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
👉Sources: US Director of the Mint historical report, Yale-hosted monetary history, Econlib historical account
🚨LIVE NOW: Gold & Silver… Housing Slumps... Can Buyers Take Control?
👉Housing starts missed expectations & pending home sales plunged 7.3%! Is weaker growth a boost for gold… or a warning for silver? We’re breaking down today’s Watchouts & what matters for YOUR stack!
🎥WATCH LIVE:
https://t.co/WH2iKXdDg8
⚡TODAY’S BIG STORIES:
🏠Housing sends a warning!
📅Watchouts: Bullish or bearish?
👀Spotted in the wild!!!
🔥Housing Is Flashing Red…
🥇A Lower Price Doesn’t Mean Metal Is Over!
⛏️They Still Have to Dig Up the Metal!
🦀Your questions answered LIVE!
👉A lower spot price doesn’t tell the whole story. We’re watching gold, silver, the dollar & Treasury yields.
🦀Crustacean Nation: If housing gets cheaper, would you trade some of your stack for property… or hold your ounces tighter?
👇Join us LIVE & sound off!
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
🏠Housing Just Sent a Warning… What Comes Next for Gold & Silver?
👉Oct. 20 Watchouts: Bullish, bearish or mixed?
🔴= Bearish |🟢= Bullish |🟡= Mixed |⏳= Pending
👉New construction missed expectations & signed home contracts plunged... today’s housing reports gave gold a supportive signal. For silver, the picture is less straightforward!
🟡US Housing Starts & Permits: A Split Result
🔥September housing starts fell 5.2% to a 1.221 million annualized pace, below the 1.300 million expected in the Wall Street Journal economist survey. August was revised UP to 1.288 million from 1.275 million.
🔥Total permits slipped 0.2% to 1.400 million, slightly ABOVE that survey’s 1.390 million forecast. But single-family permits fell 4% & single-family starts dropped 4.6%. Census flags the overall monthly starts decline as statistically uncertain.
👉Weaker construction leans supportive for gold through expectations for easier policy & lower yields. But the permits headline beat expectations, so the combined report stays mixed.
🟢Gold/ 🟡Silver — Pending Home Sales: −7.3%!
🔥September contract signings dropped 7.3%, versus just a 0.5% decline expected in the Reuters poll. The index hit 66.0, its lowest since the series began in 2001. These are signed contracts for existing homes, not completed sales.
🥇That big downside surprise strengthens the case for easier policy, a bullish lean for gold if it pulls real yields lower. Silver can benefit from that too... but a broader economic slowdown can hurt its industrial demand. Same report, different pressures on the two metals.
🟡UK Labor: Unemploy. 4.7%, Regular Pay +3.7%
🔥June–August unemployment edged down, while regular pay grew 3.7% annually. Meanwhile, vacancies fell by 21,000 to 691,000 in July–September, for the first time since 2021. Employment resilience & weaker hiring demand make this a genuinely mixed signal.
👉For YOUR stack: a softer economy doesn’t automatically mean cheaper ounces at the dealer. Watch the all-in price, premiums & buyback offers. The chart isn’t your checkout total!
🦀Crustacean Nation: If housing gets cheaper, would you trade some of your stack for property… or hold your ounces tighter?
👉Sound off below!
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
👉This week’s original Watchouts:
https://t.co/XJUO1QC7HX
🚨BREAKING: Spotted in the wild!!!🚨
🦀Crustacean Nation representing in the window! Love seeing our community leave its claw print out there! 🔥
👉Who else is rocking a Crustacean Nation sticker? Let’s see yours! 👇
🏠Housing Is Flashing Red… What Does It Mean for YOUR Gold & Silver?
👉Yesterday, builders sounded the alarm. Today, the construction numbers added to the concern.
📉The October 20 Census report estimates September housing starts fell 5.2% to a 1.221 million annualized pace. Single-family starts dropped 4.6%.
🔥The forward-looking detail: single-family building permits fell 4%. That’s fewer homes being authorized, not just fewer projects getting started. Another warning light in the construction pipeline.
🏠Meanwhile, yesterday’s NAHB survey showed builder confidence falling to 29, lowest since 2012. A reading below 50 means more builders view conditions as poor than good. And 43% reported cutting prices.
👉Builders offering discounts doesn’t automatically make a house affordable. The mortgage payment still has to work. A lower sticker price can be swallowed by expensive financing.
🥇Here’s the stacker angle: if housing weakness pushes markets toward expecting easier Fed policy & lower real yields, that could support gold. But silver has two jobs... monetary metal & industrial material. A weaker economy can hurt that industrial side.
🔥That’s the tension: how much strain can borrowers take, & what happens to purchasing power if policymakers respond with easier money?
👉One monthly starts estimate isn’t proof of a crash; Census flags this decline as statistically uncertain. But softer permits, weak sentiment & widespread builder price cuts give us more than one warning light to watch.
🦀Crustacean Nation: If housing gets cheaper, would you trade some of your stack for property… or hold your ounces tighter?
👉Sound off below!
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
👉Sources:
ZeroHedge article:
https://t.co/XqZhEF7iG8
Census: September housing starts & permits, released October 20
NAHB: October builder-confidence survey
🚨A Lower Price Doesn’t Mean the Physical-Metal Story Is Over!
👉Gold buying by central banks & silver’s supply balance tell a story that a price chart alone can miss.
🏦The World Gold Council estimated 288.9 tonnes of net central-bank gold purchases in Q2 2026, up 62% from a year earlier. That was a record second quarter, even as gold’s quarterly average price fell from Q1. Even the WGC says softer prices likely helped fuel the buying. Central banks treated the dip as a sale, did you?
🥈Meanwhile, the Silver Institute’s April outlook projected a SIXTH consecutive annual silver deficit in 2026, with demand exceeding supply by 46.3 million troy ounces.
🔥Here’s the overlooked detail: that silver deficit was forecast even with industrial demand FALLING 3%. Industrial demand is slipping, & physical stackers are picking up the slack: coin & bar demand is forecast to jump 18% to 258 million ounces, the highest since 2022.
👉The gap has to be met from existing stocks. Six straight deficits are on track to pull roughly 762 million troy ounces out of above-ground inventories since 2021. That isn't the same as your dealer running out tomorrow... but neither does a falling spot price magically refill inventories.
🥇For stackers, the useful question isn’t just “What’s the price?” It’s “What can I actually buy, at what premium & how quickly can I take possession?”
���You don’t need an end-of-the-world prediction to understand why physical ownership matters. Ounces already in your possession don’t depend on a dealer filling your next order.
🦀 Crustacean Nation: When spot drops, what do you check first: the chart, dealer premiums or what’s actually available?
👉Sound off below!
*Not financial advice. Stay stacked!
👉Sources:
World Gold Council: Q2 central-bank purchases
World Gold Council: Q2 gold prices & demand
Silver Institute: April 2026 supply-and-demand outlook