¿ESTÁIS PREPARADOS PARA LA GRAN RECESIÓN?
El diferencial (spread) entre la curva de rendimientos del Tesoro de EE.UU. a 10 años y a 3 meses.
Las inversiones de la curva de rendimientos se destacan en rojo, y las recesiones se indican como bandas verticales grises, que ocurren posteriormente a cada vez que la curva de rendimientos se invierte.
Con las opciones puedes hacer apuestas asimétricas, con la pérdida limitada sin riesgo de que la volatilidad te saque por Stop Loss. Puedes obtener altos retornos si las sabes aplicar correctamente, tienes infinidad de estrategias. No saben lo que se están perdiendo.
What surprises me the most in metals is the relative strength of copper.
YTD performance:
- Copper: +10%
- Silver: -22%
- Gold: -6%
The market is telling us something.
Unternehmerin stirbt kinderlos, ihre Schwester erbt das Haus in Düsseldorf.
Wert: 1.000.000 Euro
Erbschaftsteuer: 245.125 Euro
Um die Steuer begleichen zu können muss die Schwester das Haus verkaufen.
Beim Verkauf werden für den Käufer 65.000 Euro Grunderwerbsteuer fällig.
In Summe 310.125 Euro Steuer an den Staat.
Für ein Haus, das aus voll versteuertem Geld bezahlt wurde und für das jedes Jahr Grundsteuer geflossen ist.
Para esto sirve la liquidez. Para esperar la oportunidad, si crees que el mercado no tiene valor actualmente lo mejor es esperar.
Warren Buffett lo sabe y espera comprar con tremendo descuento.
And the entire US economy is built off of logistics, which all require diesel to run. The continuous rise in Diesel prices, let alone the coming shortages, is going to wreck the US economy. Walmart, FedEx, UPS, Amazon, are all of America’s largest employers, who create nothing but ship foreign made products & resell them.. we don’t have a manufacturing base to sustain our ponzi economy. We are going to witness mass unemployment over the next 2-3 years. And to make matters worse, the Democrat (hardcore left wing socialists), are poised to sweep the midterms, which will make the real solution to rebuilding our nation (free market capitalism) completely impossible.
The 1930’s will look tame compared to what’s coming. They are looting the country & preparing to plunder America into a dark age.
@GROD6464 Desde el 6 de junio que se abrió la cuenta. Ya fuera del broker que roba a más no poder. Todo un día sin dejar que cerrara el futuro con un beneficio enorme. Nunca devolvieron lo que era mio.
110 years of stocks and commodities taking turns.
Here's the handoff happening in real time.
Energy just broke out of a 17-year base. From 2008 to 2025, the entire sector went nowhere. Now: multi-year highs.
The longer the base, the bigger the move.
Ignore the message of the tape at your own risk.
Avisadme cuando Reddit esté en 240$ que seguramente por ahí venda la posición. De momento no me puedo quejar con $RDDT . El año pasado me forré, este año va por el mismo camino
110 years, two lines, one pattern almost nobody trades on.
The S&P 500 and commodities take turns. When one is in a bull market, the other stagnates. Look at the alternation:
– 1929-1949: stocks dead. Commodities bull.
– 1949-1966: stocks bull. Commodities asleep.
– 1966-1982: stocks go nowhere. Commodities triple.
– 1982-2000: the great equity bull. Commodities in a 20-year bear.
– 2000-2008: stocks flat. Commodities double.
– 2009-today: the everything equity rally. Commodities in a bear until 2020.
There is always a bull market: either for the commodity consumer or the commodity producer. Never both at once.
The logic is simple. Cheap raw materials are a subsidy for corporate margins; expensive ones are a tax. Twenty years of underinvestment in supply builds the next commodity bull, and the equity boom itself creates the demand that ignites it.
Commodities bottomed in 2020 and the trend is pointing up. Equities are in year 17 of their run, at record valuations.
If a century of taking turns still holds, you know whose turn is next.
The last three times this handoff happened, the index went sideways for a decade while the "boring" producers tripled. Almost nobody positioned for it, because the previous regime had lasted long enough to feel permanent.
It always does.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was created to help OUR country during emergencies.
But Presidents use it to stabilize fuel prices… GLOBALLY, because oil is a global market.
If we use much more of it to mask the cost of wars, we risk collapsing the salt caverns that hold it.
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Los inversores que se indexan sufrirán el mayor crash 💥 jamás visto en la historia. Los amantes del DCA lo odiarán de por vida.
Todo está preparado para destrozarlos.
Ten companies are now 43% of the S&P 500.
The 250 smallest companies in the index? 8%. Combined.
Read that again. Half the index, by count, weighs less than one fifth of the top ten.
In 2014, the top 10 were 18% and the bottom 250 were 14%. Nearly balanced. Twelve years later, the gap has never been wider in the data.
This is what "buying the index" means now: a quarter of every dollar goes into two companies' worth of names, and the S&P 500 has quietly become the S&P 10, with 490 passengers.
Diversification was the entire promise of indexing. Concentration is what it delivers at the top of every era. 1929, 1972, 2000. And each time, the giants of the old cycle led the following decade's underperformance.
You don't own 500 companies. You own ten bets and a rounding error.