$TSLA's valuation no longer rests on car sales. That's exactly why this week's news matters so much.
NHTSA opened a special investigation into a fatal Model 3 crash near Houston. The driver said the automated driving software β the same stack Tesla is rolling out on robotaxis β was engaged before the vehicle struck a home and killed a 76-year-old woman.
Musk has successfully re-anchored Tesla's entire valuation story to full self-driving and robotaxis over the past year. A regulatory threat to that software stack is a threat to the valuation itself.
Tesla pushed back hard β Musk and Autopilot chief Ashok Elluswamy said vehicle data showed the driver floored the accelerator to 73 mph before impact.
Meanwhile, completely unrelated, Baird made headlines this week suggesting $SPCX and $TSLA could merge within 18 months β a theory some Tesla shareholders are already calling the "ultimate investing endgame."
Q2 delivery estimates are actually solid: UBS sees 405K, Wolfe 420K, GLJ 426K. But GLJ flagged the strength as inventory clearing, not real demand re-acceleration.
Strong near-term numbers. A live federal safety probe touching the exact technology the stock is priced on. Same week.
#TSLA #Tesla #SPCX #NHTSA #Robotaxi #Investing #StockMarket #NFA #Invest2Grow
For the first time ever, the US government preemptively restricted an American AI company's product launch before it even shipped.
OpenAI announced today its new model, GPT-5.6 Sol, will only be available to a "small group of trusted partners" β roughly 20 companies, all individually approved by the Trump administration.
OpenAI's own statement: "We don't believe this kind of government access process should become the long-term default."
The reasoning, per Axios: officials say the model has "Mythos-like" capability β a reference to the same concerns that led the Commerce Department to force Anthropic to shut down public access to its Mythos and Fable models two weeks ago, an action still tied up in litigation.
CEO Sam Altman discussed the release directly with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick this week.
OpenAI says Sol doesn't cross its own risk threshold but acknowledges "unforeseen risks" if combined with other tools β hence the phased rollout.
This comes the same week OpenAI is reportedly leaning toward delaying its own IPO to 2027.
Regulatory uncertainty just became a real line item for every AI investor to model.
#OpenAI #AI #GPT #Regulation #IPO #Investing #StockMarket #NFA #Invest2Grow
@WSJ Worth watching whether this is tied to export-control concerns or domestic safety review β either way it's notable timing given OpenAI's own IPO delay chatter this week.
π Companies reporting earnings after market close on Mon, Jun 29:
πΊπΈ AeroVironment $AVAV
πΊπΈ Concentrix Corporation $CNXC
π³π± Terra Innovatum Global $NKLR
πΊπΈ Richtech Robotics $RR
πΊπΈ NovaBridge Biosciences $NBP
π¨π¦ Electra Battery Materials $ELBM
πΊπΈ Texxon Holding $NPT
π¨π³ Intchains Group $ICG
πΊπΈ Fathom Holdings $FTHM
π΅πͺ Camino Minerals $CAMZF
Our scoring algorithm does not find any of Monday's after market close reporters attractive at current levels.
Of the group, $CNXC scores the least ugly β but would need to fall significantly before becoming truly interesting.
We'll be watching. π
#Earnings #AfterMarketClose #Stocks #Investing #NFA #Invest2Grow
π Companies reporting earnings before market open on Mon, Jun 29:
πΊπΈ Replimune Group $REPL
π¬π§ High Templar Tech $HTT
πΈπ¬ CURRENC Group $CURR
πΊπΈ Bitcoin Depot $BTM
π¨π³ $QD
Our scoring algorithm does not find any of today's BMO reporters attractive at current levels.
Of the group, $HTT scores the least ugly β but would need to fall significantly before becoming truly interesting.
We'll be watching. π
#Earnings #BeforeMarketOpen #Stocks #Investing #NFA #Invest2Grow
@WSJ Worth watching whether this affects how seriously markets treat Polymarket's Fed rate-cut odds, which have been cited heavily this week as a real-time signal alongside Goldman and JPMorgan forecasts.
The headlines say "stocks fall." The data underneath says something different.
$SPY is down on the day. $QQQ is down more. But more stocks are actually rising than falling today.
This is the tell: it's not a broad selloff. It's a handful of giant tech names dragging the indexes down while everything else quietly goes up.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index ($SOX) is down almost 10% from its high β verging on correction territory β even after $MU's blowout earnings this week. Schwab is calling it the "chip dip."
The Russell 2000 ($IWM)? Green today.
The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF ($MAGS) β equal-weight $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $NVDA $TSLA β is down only 0.18%, but that undersells how split the group is internally after this week's price-hike news from $AAPL and $MSFT.
The S&P 500 is down 3% in June after a strong April and May. The Nasdaq is on its fourth straight losing day.
If your whole portfolio is mega-cap tech, this week stings. If it's diversified into small caps, industrials, or healthcare, you may not have even noticed.
#StockMarket #SOX #IWM #MAGS #Investing #SectorRotation #NFA #Invest2Grow
$TECH (Bio-Techne) just got acquired. Shares jumped 19-20% premarket.
Merck KGaA β the German pharma giant, NOT the US-listed $MRK β agreed to buy Bio-Techne for $73 per share in cash. Total enterprise value: $11.3 billion.
That's a 24% premium to Wednesday's close and a 36% premium to the one-month average price.
This is Merck KGaA's biggest acquisition in over a decade β bigger than anything since their $17B Sigma-Aldrich purchase in 2014.
Why Bio-Techne specifically? The company's catalog includes 6,000 proteins and 425,000 antibodies used across multi-omics, spatial biology, and cell and gene therapy research.
Merck's Life Science CEO called it a "big, big plus," targeting a $27 billion addressable market in advanced research tools.
The deal is expected to be immediately accretive to sales growth, with full EPS accretion landing by year 3. Expected close: late 2026 or early 2027.
Cash + new debt funds the deal. $MKGAF shares rose roughly 3-5% on the announcement.
Healthcare M&A isn't slowing down β it's just happening quietly while everyone watches chips and AI.
#TECH #BioTechne #MRK #MA #Healthcare #Investing #StockMarket #NFA #Invest2Grow
Nobody actually agrees on what the Fed does next. Look at the spread:
The market (Polymarket): 79.8% chance of ZERO rate cuts in 2026. Traders are now pricing a HIKE as early as October.
The Fed's own dot plot: median officials see the rate at 3.8% by year-end, up from 3.4% in March. Vote split: 8 see no change, 9 see a hike, just 1 still sees a cut.
$JPM (JPMorgan): stays on hold through ALL of 2026, first hike not until September 2027.
$GS (Goldman Sachs): doesn't expect ANY cuts until 2027, pushing its own forecast for the next cut from December 2026 all the way to June 2027.
Same data. Same Fed. Three wildly different forecasts spanning from "hike in October" to "nothing happens for over a year."
This is what happens when a new Fed Chair, a war-driven inflation spike, and a blowout jobs report collide at once.
Whatever you're positioned for in $SPY $QQQ $TLT, somebody on Wall Street thinks you're wrong.
#Fed #InterestRates #KevinWarsh #Investing #StockMarket #NFA #Invest2Grow
Michael Burry β the investor who called the 2008 housing collapse β looked at put options on $SPCX this week.
He passed. But not because he's bullish.
In his own words: $SPCX is "fundamentally a small space company, a niche telecom, a bedeviled social media company, and a CoreWeave-light" generating under $20B in annual revenue.
He noted the company's current valuation has eclipsed Berkshire Hathaway β "painstakingly assembled over two century-old lives" β by 2.5x in just three days of trading.
He's not short. He's not long. "Neither short nor, ahem, long," he wrote.
Why pass on the trade? The math: a December 2026 put cost about $6.75 with the stock near $212. A 2027 put cost $13. Even Burry called those prices too rich to bet against.
Meanwhile short interest jumped from 8% to 13% of float in a single session this week β unusually fast for a stock public only two weeks β per Ortex data.
One of Wall Street's most famous skeptics is watching from the sidelines, not betting either way.
#SPCX #MichaelBurry #StockMarket #Investing #ShortSelling #NFA #Invest2Grow
$META I really like this stock at these levels, but I would love it at around $514 if we can get a good flush.
It goes without saying that this stock has solid fundamentals (NFA).
@WSJ@WSJopinion Worth watching whether this DSA momentum translates into actual policy shifts on rent control or local business taxes β NYC commercial real estate investors will be paying close attention to city council races downstream of this.
Consumer sentiment just snapped a 4-month losing streak.
The preliminary June reading came in at 48.9, up from May's all-time record low of 44.8, and beat the 46.1 forecast. The final June number lands tomorrow, Friday June 26.
Here's the catch in the headline:
Even with this "improvement," sentiment is still 13% below January 2026 and 19% below a year ago. We just went from historically terrible to merely very bad.
What actually moved the needle: easing gasoline prices early in the month, after the Strait of Hormuz disruption had pushed pump prices sharply higher for months.
Lower-income consumers, who spend a larger share of their budget on gas, saw the strongest sentiment improvement of any group.
Year-ahead inflation expectations also eased, dropping to 4.6% from 4.8%. Long-run expectations fell more sharply, to 3.4% from 3.9%.
Translation: relief is showing up first and fastest exactly where the squeeze hit hardest. Watch tomorrow's final reading to see if it holds.
#ConsumerSentiment #Inflation #Economy #PersonalFinance #Investing #StockMarket #NFA #Invest2Grow
π Companies reporting earnings after market close on Fri, Jun 26:
π¨π¦ District Copper Corp. $CAXPF
Light earnings day to close out the week β only one company reporting after the bell, with insufficient data for our scoring model on this micro-cap name.
#Earnings #AfterMarketClose #Stocks #Investing #NFA #Invest2Grow