Chris Carter

Solid Waste M&A by day, long-term value investor by night. Occasionally right.

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Greg Abel: "We own a piece of a company [when we buy stock]. We own a piece of that cash flow. We own a piece of their balance sheet. It's not just a share certificate."

"Do we have a strong view of what those economic prospects of those companies will look like five years from now, ten years from now, twenty years from now? If we don't have a view of that, we won't be investing — be it 100% or 2%."

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@taobanker Very jealous, I would if I kept some liquidity in brokerage account. Will get some distributions and t bill expiration in the next 35 days. Will be looking to add.

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@SayNoToTrading Love your quality over chips instinct. But how much of that is multiple expansion vs. actual business growth? WCN’s entire edge was/is consolidating a fragmented industry. That runway is much smaller now. 06 buyer was buying a 9yr old roll up. Today it’s a $50B mature rollup.

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@007Sausage Hope Wilson can fix insurance.
But the bigger picture concerns me: heavy exec turnover (Gendron ~9mo, Cox, Noble, Heaton), Gayner’s heavy promotional script and Markel Ventures looking like dead weight (JANA Partners just called for its sale). More talk than walk now maybe?

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

Curious about $MKL thoughts from long-time owners. Gayner remains very promotional, yet discontinued the Omaha Berkshire Brunch. Buybacks remain modest (~2-2.5%/yr) despite his belief shares are cheap. Lots of exec turnover, corporate speak, etc. Actions vs. narrative diverging?

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@Greenbackd @ChrisBloomstran @farnamjake1 Have been waiting patiently for this one, usually one of the best episodes of the year.

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@Sempiterno_Inv Call it whatever you want, but if I have to ignore half the expenses for the business to look profitable, I’m not buying it. EBITDA shouldn't stand for Earnings Before I Trick Da Analysts. Look at the peer group.

[David Senra @FoundersPodcast]

Sage advice from Warren Buffett:

“You want to work where there is little competition. One of the secrets of life is weak competition. The unusual records - and there have been few that have been maintained- have been achieved by those who have worked relatively neglected fields in which competition was light.”

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@AKWilk FWIW, $WCN purchased $SES.TO assets back in 24 for a single digit multiple pre synergies. Solid Waste companies don't value these assets like core SW assets. $GFL is just engaging in more financial engineering which is par for the course for them.

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@Mr_Neutral_Man $10M open market buy by Baker II at $20.90 near the 52-week low is a decent signal too. Family now owns ~19.4% of the company.

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@Mr_Neutral_Man Great news and the stock is down, just made my Monday! Bought more shares. Appreciate all your hard work that has brought this opportunity to my attention. Now my largest single investment.

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@AndrewRangeley @accrued_int Updated thoughts on overall FAST market and the value of Tubi now that they are profitable. Any updated thoughts on Fox’s Flutter position given the most recent pullback and threat of prediction markets hurting the value of their investment or option that expires in 2030.

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@AKWilk 5) lastly, management quality has been inconsistent especially on capital allocation decisions and accounting adjustments. Now the entire sector is for pod shops and people hiding away from volatility.

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@AKWilk 4/proftiable growth as capex is. That’s why the roll up hasn’t stopped. Private equity caught on, multiples skyrocketed, and now returns on capital employed across the board have gone way down. Pair that with high entry multiples, and the industry is a hard pass.

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@AKWilk 3/Further, depreciation is always behind what actual maintenance Capex cost is. You’ll notice all the majors have Capex in line or slight above depreciation. I guarantee you they all should be spending more on maintenance Capex. Finally, the M&A is just as necessary for

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@AKWilk 2/Some have government owned landfills within driving distance that constantly keep price down. It’s also a local business, heavy government regulation and control, and scale doesn’t really matter. A mom and pop with some money, a good bank, and hard work can take over a market.

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@AKWilk 1/Just finished 10 years in the industry, most recently at a public company. The truth is the barriers to waste collection, is minimal. While the landfill barrier is real, not all landfills are created equal. Some have serious environmental risk. Some are in competitive markets.

[Chris Carter @InvestCarter]

@AndrewRangeley @TSOH_Investing As a follow up, given $PSKY is taking on a massive debt load to close $WBD, do they even have the balance sheet to retain the CBS NFL package when the league opts out? Even if it’s a 2029 event, hard to imagine they can compete.