Michael D. Malone

Income/Value Portfolio Management is our new service for the money you want away from stock market volatility.

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

I believe that the rate and inflation shock plus a struggling stock market is leading to the return of income/value securities. I expect this to last more than a decade. Investing may be back!

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

@MulliganMan95 One of six top Flynns in Philly area.

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

@SirPuttsalot @KendoVT There was a modest 27 hole course in Swedesboro NJ called Beckett that I enjoyed. Everything seemed to run like a well oiled machine but eventually closed.

[Mike McGlone @mikemcglone11]

2026 May Make 2008 Look Like Sissy Stuff - TLT vs. USO

US T-bond yields falling from above 5% and WTI crude oil reverting toward $50 a barrel from above $100 are among my highest-conviction views for 2H.

What does President Trump need for midterms and for the next president not to be a Democrat? Lower energy prices, lower inflation, lower bond yields and a higher stock market.

A top way to alleviate inflation, is a drop in stocks. Akin to Bitcoin and crypto insiders dumping to the mainstream via ETFs -- marking an enduring peak -- stocks may follow a similar path via the gush of IPO's -- insiders cashing out.

Imagine the unimaginable if the US stock market does what's normal in a midterm election year and drops in 2026. Plunging leading indicator Bitcoin, along with surging volatility in gold and crude oil suggest some ebbing of the equity tide. A 20% S&P 500 decline would be about 50% of GDP and Bitcoin may be warning us on its way back toward $10,000.

The 2026 pump-then-dump pattern is gaining contagion, including: Bitcoin, US natural gas, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, iron ore, corn....next?

At about 2.5x GDP, the US stock-market is the 10 on a 1-to-10 scale for inflation or deflation, on about a 100-year historical basis.

Pain is often required for gain. I have been wrong on US T-bonds for about a long as I was wrong about gold breaking above $2,000 from 2020-2023.

Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/LfOwfaXFNp {BI COMD}
#gold #stockmarket #crudeoil #stockmarket @Bloomberg

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

@GCAJoeA On my short list

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

@BradleySKlein @golfarchitects I hope they keep their hard sand bunkers. I found them cool.

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

@JamieSlonis @TheGolfDivoTee It is true in anything that you get 90% of what you need to know immediately and it takes forever to get the next 10%.

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

@Stealth1014 @AlexChecked My thought exactly. Paraguay isn’t even attacking on defense.

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

@InnocenceCapit1 @NOTdaRealGil My opinion of “fine” is that is very good. I have it is the best 8 holes in a row of Philly Flynns.

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

@flopfather I like that you say it is a personal preference. That’s great. I played it a couple of years ago when one nine was under construction.
My personal preference is that the land dictates the design and bunkering should be simple.
But I will play it and decide. Loved Tobacco Road.

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

@fnf2017 I hear Rock Spring is good

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

@LinksGems @DunavertyC5911 The Old Course of England

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

I felt like I was being whisked away to different time. I loved it

[Joe Arnold @GCAJoeA]

Prestwick GC, 1851 Old Tom Morris, Prestwick, Scotland

Conceived by James Ogilvie Fairlie and his group of 57 founding members, they met at the Red Lion Inn (up the street from the club and still operating) to start the Prestwick GC. Old Tom Morris was hired to route/build a golf course, become the keeper of the green, and the club’s ball and golf club maker.

The layout of the original Prestwick links produced 12 holes with the first hole being a 578 yd, 1 foot, and 9 inches. It started at the west edge of the property beginning just left of the practice green and right of the current 14th fwy. It ended at the current 16th green. The 2nd hole is what is now the current 17th “Alps” hole and is the oldest championship golf hole still in existence as it was originally laid out. In 1860, the very first Open Championship was played on the original 12 holes. After the club purchased more land north of the original course, Old Tom extended the course to 18 holes in 1882. There are remnants of the stone wall that was once the northern edge of the original course.

Prestwick has quite a few recognizable holes such the 17th “Alps”, the 3rd hole “Cardinal” with its massive cardinal bunker, the 5th “Himalayas” which is a blind tee shot par 3 over a massive sand dune, and the 15th “Narrows” which is a par 4 playing up and through an extremely tight dunes framed runway. The whole round gets started on the 1st hole aptly named “Railway” as it sits feet away from the Prestwick train station. A stone wall runs down the entire right side of the hole with the tee shot being nothing more than a long iron out to a tight landing area leaving a short iron into an extremely tiny green.

Prestwick GC is often described as “quirky” and fun. I would wholeheartedly agree with that description. It’s unlike any other I’ve played. There is so much going on within one golf course. Blind shots, crossovers, massive wood planked bunkers, drivable holes, centuries old stone walls, burns, and a whole lot more. The fairways are all humped and bumped and you have no idea what kind of bounce you’ll get off the tee. The conditions are pristine. The green complexes are magnificent with all sorts of shapes, sizes, and contours.

Equally as stunning to the course is the clubhouse itself. A literal golf museum with copies of the Claret Jug, Young Tommy Morris’s Challenge Belt for winning three consecutive Open Championships, original scorecards from those championships, club minutes, pictures, etc. I could have spent hours perusing everything the club so eloquently showcases. But what made the clubhouse so special were the people inside. From the moment my wife and I sat down for lunch in the brand new upstairs bar/restaurant, we were made to feel at home. David Fleming, the club’s Head Professional and his staff could not have been any more cordial. David himself gave me a personal tour of the clubhouse. Kevin, the caddie master, made sure my round was set up with Chris McBride, the living caddie legend of Prestwick. Kevin waited for me to complete my round as I was the last off of the day and made sure I was sent off with a warm goodbye.

For years I’ve imagined what it would be like to see and play these hallowed grounds. It was everything I had imagined and more. I’ve watched and read everything I can through the years of this club and its history. For this golf historian nerd, it was honestly a surreal feeling being at and playing Prestwick. I told my caddie Chris on a few occasions it felt like a dream. He looked at me at one point and said “you get it.” Some days you never want to end. My day at Prestwick is one I will never forget. What’s been special is renting a place directly across the street from the club during our time in Ayrshire. So I’ve been able to savor the moments for a few days and have just stared out my windows at this historic place. I can’t wait for the next time.

[Peter Grandich @PeterGrandich]

Buffet is right about the state of gambling - https://t.co/Z9iS3nxD58

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

@AndyTFE Wayne Morrison was sensational.

[Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas]

Chart of the Week - The Speculation Generation

Today’s chart is one for tomorrow’s history books.

It shows US households running the highest allocation to equities on record (and [as a result] the stockmarket trading at record high valuations).

This is the type of shift you see only once in a generation, and it means a fundamental change in market structure with significant implications for the economy, politics, and the forward looking risk vs return outlook.

But to be fair, with the S&P500 gaining more than 10x off the March 2009 lows — it’s an entirely understandable development!

And even though it got this way for very logical reasons (strong earnings growth, waves of tech disruption, low interest rates, passive flows), it’s important to acknowledge that this is not normal and we live in highly unusual times.

Investor confidence is near record highs, earnings optimism is at euphoric levels, defensives and diversifiers are in the dustbin, and social media chatter is saturated with an almost desperate sense of greed (with investors growing accustomed to 2x, 3x, 10x returns, and the bull market minting many geniuses).

This is the speculation generation.

p.s. this is neither good nor bad, it’s just a thing… and that’s the thing: as market analysts we ought to not got get bogged down in good or bad, bullish or bearish, optimism or pessimism —but rather what is the lay of the land? what does the data tell us? and what are the most pragmatic next steps we should take (or prepare to make…)

Bottom line: a generational shift in investor behavior has been observed.

[Michael D. Malone @InvestIntell]

@GCAJoeA Weow!!

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Things are looking silly again. Non-profitable tech basket back to 2021 air in both price and y/y change terms