I’m building a long-term thesis on $RIVN.
Not as a quick trade. Not as hype.
The question I’m asking:
Is Rivian just another risky EV company, or is it quietly building one of the most important software-defined vehicle platforms in the U.S.?
R2 is the proof gate.
VW, Amazon, and Uber are the validation layers.
My full thesis: https://t.co/5RT6cb3ltC
@ThMTim@Rivian@KevinMelnuk You have to separate R2 launch from stock price. Re-rating takes time and often lags real world data. Also market is AI driven right now, everything is secondary
$ASML can we please get a stock split 🙏😂
One lesson I’ve learned over the years is that wealth is built by finding asymmetric bets.
Sometimes it’s a company the market hasn’t fully recognized yet like $RIVN. Other times it’s a world-class business that temporarily falls out of favor and gives patient investors an opportunity.
$ASML is the realized example for me. I started building my position when the stock was trading in the mid-$600s and semiconductor sentiment wasn’t exactly exciting.
$MSFT and $NOW are still in the thesis-building/recovery stage for me, but the framework is similar: quality companies that fell out of favor while the long-term business case remains intact. (And yes, nuance is required. Not every stock below its moving averages is a bargain.)
Most investors spend their time looking for the next winner. The better question is often: what quality company has the market temporarily stopped caring about?
You generate income and accelerate gains through trading. You build wealth through investing.
I wrote about this in my recent newsletter (free): Are You Investing, Trading, or Just Reacting?
https://t.co/dJd2IlsSYL
Wrapped up today’s Sunday Live 🚀
Covered: $GRAB, $RIVN, $ZS, $STNE, $ADBE, $SOFI, $NFLX, $MSFT, $INTC, $AXP, $HD, $HOOD, $JPM, $AKAM, $LRCX, $TSEM, $CRWD, $META, $SPCX, $SMH, $AEHR, $OCSR, $MRVL, $GE, $CBRL
What a session — AI, semis, fintech, cybersecurity, consumer, and industrials all in one call 🔥
We’ll be taking a short break and will be back on July 19. Looking forward to recharging and coming back with fresh ideas and plenty of new names to discuss.
Shoutout to @ShaunTrades_ for the insights and @WOLF_Financial for the platform 🙌
“I only sell options on quality companies.”
Translation:
“I sell options on whatever stock is paying me the most premium this week and then reverse engineer a quality thesis afterward.” 😂
It's not about autonomy. Most of these $TSLA fanboys have made their persona about Tesla & Elon as their saviors. As the company has pivoted away from EV, these guys are having a very tough time appreciating another player in the market. Some are so blinded that they are rooting for an American company to fail just because their ego can be satisfied.
Today everyone is talking about Anthropic’s Claude or $ADBE getting destroyed.
Adobe is now trading near 2018 levels.
➡Revenue is growing.
➡Free cash flow is strong.
➡Creative Cloud still dominates.
Yet the stock is down ~70% from its highs. The market isn’t pricing today’s business.
It’s pricing a future where AI weakens Adobe’s moat.
When a former SaaS darling gets sent back 8 years, investors should pay attention.
The question isn’t why the stock is down.
The question is whether this is a value trap or a major opportunity.
$SPCX only up ~20%? After listening to X for the last few weeks, I thought retirement was scheduled for this afternoon.
The way some folks were talking, I was expecting a candle so large it needed FAA clearance. 🚀😂
I get the enthusiasm, but I think we’re getting into Monday morning quarterback territory.
$RIVN R2 is bigger than reviewers, influencers, or even reservation holders. It’s arguably the most important product launch in Rivian’s history and the company’s future depends on executing it well.
I’d trust the people with the actual production and reservation data to make those decisions.