Bachman Capital

Analyse like a VC, decide like a trader. Deep analysis. Asymmetric bets. Early and long-term. Entries: $OPEN @ 0.80$, $IBRX @ $2, $IREN @ 17$, $AMD @ 80$

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

https://t.co/GLXJF0iRiJ

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

@Umbisam Prices for perfection.

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

$BNGO Bionano’s core technology is Optical Genome Mapping (OGM), which creates direct digital maps of ultra-long DNA molecules (>150 kbp, often megabase-scale) by enzymatically labeling specific 6 bp motifs and imaging their patterns in nanochannels. This reveals all classes of structural variants (SVs) including deletions, insertions, inversions, translocations, complex rearrangements, and copy number variants through direct observation of label spacing and patterns, rather than inference from short reads (as in NGS) or lower-resolution methods (karyotyping, FISH, CMA).

Bionano’s Stratys OGM + AI-powered VIA + NVIDIA compute stack produces differentiated, high-quality structural genomic data that is genuinely valuable for training next-generation AI models in precision medicine, oncology, rare disease, and cell/gene therapy. In that sense, they could become an important foundational player supplying critical “picks and shovels” (or specialized fuel) for the genomics/biotech AI gold rush, much like NVIDIA does for general AI compute.

$BNGO blew up a few years ago during COVID and dropped 96% in value, heavily diluting shareholders.

The stock is now in a turn around and drastically improved since May 28. Bionano fully retired and cancelled all $20M of senior secured convertible debentures using cash, removing all secured debt and releasing the liens/covenants , with consumables +20% YoY and FY26 revenue guidance reaffirmed at $30–33M . The conversion/dilution overhang is genuinely gone. This can be the GPU for genomics: best data > best insights.

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

https://t.co/aVUne0Hy56

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

@investingluc I think drones already are highly valued looking at $ONDS . Ethically it’s a difficult theme to invest in.

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

If you believe the memory supercycle is structural, the molding monopoly is the least-crowded, highest-leverage way to own it.
Not advice — thin JP small-cap, volatile both ways. DYOR.
$TOWA 6315.T

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

The memory bottle neck the market is missing: $TOWA (6315.T)

Everyone's crowding the AI memory trade: $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung.
Nobody's pricing the single chokepoint every HBM stack on Earth has to pass through.
$TOWA / 6315.T the cleanest monopoly in the memory bottleneck.

Thread 🧵👇

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

9/ The setup:
~¥3,000/share, ~¥230B (~$1.5B) cap. A monopoly enabler of the AI memory bottleneck — still at small-cap size.
Next catalyst: Aug 6 earnings + the HBM4 order ramp.
Watch the order book, not the quarter.

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

@nejatian @B4rryMcCockiner You're the only company that creates an accountability dashboard and asks retail to participate in Q&A at earnings calls. This on itself is changing the way we participate in markets. keep it up Kaz + team.

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

Remember this one? Every one of #OpenArmy should read this. I called it when others didn't see it — when Kaz was working in silence: $OPEN is a market maker in the biggest TAM worldwide. Opendoor will be the leading agentic trading company of the housing market, moving from OTC to automation. Long-term this is a $1000+ stock in the making.

Kaz entering the place was the same as Dr. Lisa Su taking the wheel at AMD and turning the ship around.

Long $OPEN

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

https://t.co/GLXJF0iRiJ

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

https://t.co/GLXJF0iRiJ

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

@stevehou @ramahluwalia @GavinSBaker @JDB_trading

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

The bigger red flag is the circular financing currently required. When will OpenAI and Anthropic be able to sustain themselves with diversified revenue from enterprise customers outside of Microsoft investing with billions of dollars that can only be spend on cloud credits. The tech is real. Impact is real. Will the economics work out?

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

The post below is a great example of the work in progress of Opendoor as a market maker — building on the thoughts written out in my deepdive. https://t.co/epOqQfzurd

[ssj2abid @ssj2abid]

Time for some $OPEN math. It's been a while.

I wanted to understand how many homes Opendoor can theoretically buy with their current cash and what that means for the stock. So I went into the Q1 2026 SEC filings and worked it out.

First, how does Opendoor actually pay for a home?

They don't buy homes with cash. They put up a fraction and borrow the rest from non-recourse credit facilities secured by the home itself. Like a mortgage but at industrial scale.

From the Q1 2026 cash flow statement:

→ Cash spent on buying homes: $221M
→ Homes purchased: 2,474
→ $221M ÷ 2,474 = $89,329 cash per home

That $89K is the down payment. On a $365K home that's roughly 24%. The other 76% (~$276K) is borrowed. If anything goes wrong, the lender takes the home, not Opendoor's cash. That's what non-recourse means.

So how many homes can they hold at once?

→ Cash available: ~$1,078M
→ Cash per home: ~$89K
→ $1,078M ÷ $89K = ~12,112 homes
→ Current inventory: 3,420 homes
→ Headroom: 3.5x current inventory

But homes churn. Buy, hold ~77 days, sell, get cash back, buy again. That cash recycles.

→ 365 days ÷ 77 day hold = 4.74 cycles per year
→ 12,112 homes × 4.74 cycles = ~57,400 homes sold per year
→ 57,400 ÷ 52 weeks = ~1,104 homes per week

With current cash alone Opendoor can sustain ~1,100 homes per week. The accountable dashboard projects a trend toward 800-900 by year end. The cash stack supports significantly more than what Kaz is currently projecting. Either conservative guidance or headroom to accelerate. Either way bullish.

And hold times are improving. Aged inventory from 51% to 10%. October cohort selling at 2x velocity. If hold time drops to 60 days:

→ 365 ÷ 60 = 6.08 cycles × 12,112 = ~73,600/year
→ 73,600 ÷ 52 = ~1,416 homes per week

The agent integration amplifies this further. 100,000+ agents bringing sellers in and helping move homes out. The AI designs every offer to hit 6-7% contribution margins after all costs including agent commissions.

So what does this mean for the stock?

Using $24,300 profit per home (6% CM), $93M quarterly company costs, 963M shares, 42x P/E (Carvana's current multiple).

The $93M comes from the Q1 filing: $19M advertising + $12M operations + $33M fixed costs + $23M interest + ~$6M for the new convertible interest rate. This is roughly what it costs to run Opendoor per quarter. It could actually be lower as some of that interest is already captured in the per-home holding costs but I'm keeping it conservative.

655/week (current pace):

→ 8,515 homes/quarter × $24,300 = $207M
→ - $93M company costs = $114M net/quarter
→ $456M annualised ÷ 963M = $0.47 EPS
→ 42x = $19.90

1,000/week:

→ 13,000 × $24,300 = $316M
→ - $93M = $223M net/quarter
→ $892M annualised ÷ 963M = $0.93 EPS
→ 42x = $38.90

1,100/week (max on current cash at 77d hold):

→ 14,300 × $24,300 = $347M
→ - $93M = $254M net/quarter
→ $1.02B annualised ÷ 963M = $1.06 EPS
→ 42x = $44.30

1,400/week (max on current cash at 60d hold):

→ 18,200 × $24,300 = $442M
→ - $93M = $349M net/quarter
→ $1.40B annualised ÷ 963M = $1.45 EPS
→ 42x = $60.90

The stock is ~$4.50.

This is a high level analysis based on current Q1 data. It does not account for further improvements that are already in motion:

→ Cash Plus (live, 35% of volume) and Cash Now More Later (live) both reduce the equity needed per home which would increase max capacity beyond 12,112
→ Credit facilities can be expanded as volume grows and profitability is proven
→ Profits reinvested back into buying more homes compounds the capacity further
→ Mortgage and Doma layer additional margin on every transaction beyond the $24,300

All upside not reflected in the numbers above.

Patience and conviction.

nfa, long $OPEN 🏠

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

@getaisavvy @founderwithadhd @Opendoor You should read my deepdive on it as well. Called it before Kaz dropped it on the earnings call.

[Bachman Capital @InvestWithFelix]

$OPEN under Kaz leadership is like Lisa Su becoming CEO at $AMD in 2014. You are having the entry of a century.

The world is not ready. Real estate is the biggest TAM. Liquidity is it’s biggest issue.