Vaibhav Joshi

Everyone loves a stock after 5x.
I like businesses before they become Twitter threads.

Investor 💰

Disc- Don't Buy or Sell on tweets (I'm Biased)

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

If you believe land prices in India will NOT keep compounding at crazy rates like they did over the last 10 to 15 years, then Raymond Realty is probably one of the most mispriced real estate stocks in the market today. 👀

And honestly, I think most investors still do not understand this shift.

The old Indian real estate playbook was simple:

Buy massive land banks.
Sit on appreciating assets.
Keep leveraging the balance sheet.
Watch NAVs explode higher.
That model worked brilliantly from 2010 onwards because land prices kept moving up aggressively across every major city.
But what if that cycle slows down now?
Because realistically:
how long can land prices keep compounding at the same pace in already expensive urban markets? 🤷‍♂️

This is exactly why Raymond Realty’s model looks structurally superior to Prestige Estates going forward.

Yet the market is still pricing Prestige like the undisputed king while Raymond trades like some random regional developer.

MARKET CAP
Prestige Estates
~₹60,000 crore

Raymond Realty
~₹4,000 crore.

15x valuation gap.

Now let’s compare actual business performance.

FY26 REVENUE
Prestige
₹13,195 crore

Raymond Realty
₹3,039 crore.
FY26 PAT

Prestige
~₹1,200 to ₹1,300 crore

Raymond Realty
~₹305 crore.

Prestige is obviously larger.

Nobody is denying that.
But here’s the part nobody wants to discuss properly.

Prestige NEEDS massive capital deployment just to sustain growth.
Huge land acquisitions.
Commercial offices.
Retail malls.
Hotels.
Large annuity assets.
Heavy Mumbai and Hyderabad expansion.

This works beautifully during strong land inflation cycles.

Because asset appreciation itself does a lot of the heavy lifting.
But if land appreciation slows?

Then suddenly shareholders are left funding:
massive balance sheets,
slow moving assets,
and years of locked capital.
Which is exactly why despite all the scale, Prestige still generates:

~7% to 9% ROCE
~6% ROE
with ~₹10,900 crore net debt.

Now compare that with Raymond Realty.

Raymond is not trying to become India’s biggest land hoarder.

It is trying to become India’s most capital efficient developer.

Huge difference.
Instead of aggressively buying land, Raymond is scaling through JDAs across premium MMR markets like Bandra, Mahim, Sion and Wadala.
Which means:
lower capital requirement,
faster project cycles,
better inventory turns,
stronger cash conversion,
and far less balance sheet stress.
And the return ratios are absolutely crushing Prestige.
ROCE
~30.5%
ROE
~37.7%

Net debt
~₹656 crore only. 🚀

Now let’s talk about the biggest misconception around Raymond Realty.

People still think this is just a Thane land monetization story.

Wrong.
Very wrong.
Raymond already has:
~₹25,000 crore GDV from Thane land bank
+
~₹14,000 crore JDA pipeline
+
future launch visibility pushing total GDV opportunity toward ~₹43,000 crore.
A company sitting on ~₹43,000 crore development visibility is being valued at ~₹4,000 crore market cap.

Read that again slowly.

And unlike Prestige, Raymond is building this pipeline WITHOUT blowing up the balance sheet.
Another thing people are completely ignoring is revenue booking quality.
Prestige’s future earnings increasingly depend on long duration monetization cycles where huge capital stays tied up inside annuity assets and mega projects for years.

Raymond’s JDA model creates much faster capital recycling because the company does not waste enormous upfront capital buying land.

Which means:
better IRRs,
better cash flow velocity,
better shareholder returns.

Honestly, I think the market is still pricing Prestige based on old cycle assumptions where land inflation alone keeps making developers richer every year.

But the next decade may reward something very different:

Execution.
Capital efficiency.
Cash flow discipline.
Balance sheet strength.

And if that happens, Raymond Realty at current valuations looks ridiculously underpriced while Prestige honestly looks priced for perfection. 🔥

Some people will hate this take.
But I think Raymond Realty has a far better chance of outperforming Prestige from here over the next 5 years.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@JJPLUSCEO Not tracking it but didn't looked attractive at first glance.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

One statistic that blew my mind recently...

Flexible workspaces accounted for barely 5% of office leasing in India a few years ago. Today that number is north of 20% and in some quarters flex operators are leasing more space than traditional IT occupiers.

That got me thinking.

What if the real story is not office space at all?

What if this is becoming a new form of enterprise infrastructure?

That is where WeWork India starts looking very interesting.

Most investors still put WeWork India in the same bucket as coworking operators. But when you dig deeper, nearly 80% of its revenue comes from enterprises, occupancy is approaching 87%, more than half of new sales come from existing customers expanding within the network and the company has quietly moved into a net cash position.

What fascinates me is the quality of growth.

Awfis has larger seat capacity and a wider network. Smartworks has built massive enterprise campuses. Yet WeWork generates significantly higher profits than both. Last year WeWork reported revenue of about ₹2,500 crore and PAT of ₹179 crore.

Awfis generated roughly ₹1,500 crore revenue with PAT around ₹70 crore while Smartworks generated nearly

₹1,800 crore revenue but PAT was barely above ₹10 crore.

That tells me WeWork is not winning on scale. It is winning on economics.

The market seems focused on desks. I am focused on what sits above the desks.

Managed offices. Design and build services. Enterprise solutions. Digital products. Value added services.

If GCC expansion continues and flexible workspaces become a larger share of corporate real estate budgets, WeWork is positioned right at the centre of that shift.

Now imagine where numbers could be 3 years from now.

A business doing more than ₹4,000 crore revenue, EBITDA approaching ₹1,000 crore and PAT potentially moving towards ₹450 crore plus if management executes well and occupancy remains healthy.

Suddenly the conversation changes.

You are no longer looking at a coworking company.

You are looking at a premium enterprise infrastructure platform sitting on top of one of the strongest structural trends in Indian commercial real estate.

Not saying there are no risks. Oversupply, slower GCC hiring and occupancy pressure can always hurt the story.

But when I look at the combination of industry tailwinds, improving balance sheet, operating leverage and premium positioning, I honestly feel the market may still be underestimating what WeWork India could look like five years from now.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@JimmyGupta111 It was not entirely the narrative i will say things were not good post June 2024 and gov did very little on reforms side. The good thing i feel finally public anger have pushed them to do reforms hope they will continue.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

Why I feel Indian markets will do reasonably well.

I know this is not a popular view right now because most people are busy chasing AI stories, US tech and whatever is working this quarter.

But when I look at the data and positioning, India actually looks much more attractive today than it did 2 years ago.

Just think about this.

As of June 2026, FIIs own only 14.7% of India's total market cap.

Fourteen year low.

MSCI weight of India is around 11%.

At one point it was close to 22%.

For years everyone kept telling us India is overcrowded, India is expensive, everyone owns India.

Well, nobody seems to own India anymore.

That alone should make people curious.

Now look at earnings.

Nifty FY27 earnings estimates are around 15%.

At current valuations that gives a PEG close to 1.24.

For an economy that can potentially grow 6% plus for years, that does not look expensive to me.

In fact my question is simple.

Which major economy today has better earnings growth longevity than India?

US?

A large part of the excitement is coming from AI capex.

Great story.

I am bullish on AI as a technology.

But capex cycles don't go on forever.

Every cycle eventually reaches a point where investors ask a very simple question.

Where are the returns?

China?

Still dealing with structural issues.

Europe?

Growth is hard to find.

Korea?

Looks cheaper but cheaper and better are not the same thing.

India has a diversified growth engine.

Consumption.

Financialization.

Manufacturing.

Infrastructure.

Digital economy.

Formalization.

There isn't a single pillar holding the entire story together.

That is why I think earnings growth here has much longer duration than most people appreciate.

And duration matters.

People focus too much on next year's PE and too little on how long earnings can compound.

That is where terminal value comes from.

That is why India historically traded at a premium.

India's median PE over the last 20 years is around 22.

Current PE is around 20.2.

So despite all the noise about expensive valuations, the market is actually trading below its long term median.

Another thing people are missing.

India was genuinely unattractive 2 years ago.

I was saying that too.

Valuations were stretched.

The rest of the world looked far more attractive.

FIIs had better opportunities elsewhere.

But markets are dynamic.

Things change.

Today foreign ownership is at historic lows.

Valuations are lower.

Earnings are improving.

Q4 FY26 numbers were encouraging.

The setup is completely different from what it was 24 months ago.

Even on the AI side I think investors need to separate technology from investment returns.

AI is real.

AI is transformative.

But that does not automatically mean every company spending billions on AI will earn attractive returns on capital.

In fact there is a decent probability that AI becomes cheaper much faster than people expect.

Models get commoditized.

Training costs keep falling.

Competition increases.

The technology wins but some investors may not.

That has happened many times in history.

Meanwhile India quietly keeps improving.

Domestic flows remain strong.

This is probably the most interesting part of the story.

For almost two years investors have not made much money at the index level.

Yet SIPs keep coming.

Retail participation keeps growing.

People are still allocating money to equities.

Something has clearly changed in household behaviour.

The younger generation is far more comfortable owning stocks than previous generations.

Gold had a phenomenal run.

Real estate is no longer an easy bet.

Money is finding its way into financial assets.

That is a structural trend.

Not a cyclical one.

Do I think Nifty will give crazy returns?

No.

I don't think we are looking at a euphoric bull market.

But 10 to 12% returns over the next 12 months and 25 to 30% over the next couple of years seems perfectly reasonable if earnings continue to deliver.

Where I am really excited is below the index.

Large caps are still supported by relentless mutual fund and DII flows.

But once you go into the 1000 to 5000 crore market cap universe, there are so many businesses where growth is visible and valuations are still reasonable.

That is where I think the real money will be made.

Maybe I am wrong.

But when foreign ownership is at multi decade lows, valuations are below historical averages, earnings are improving and the economy still has one of the best growth runways in the world, I find it very hard to be bearish on India.

Happy to hear the other side.

What am I missing?

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

I was warning people around me to stay away from US stocks at current levels.

Ironically, back in 2022 when investing in the US wasn't fashionable I allocated nearly 20% of my portfolio there.

Bought Meta at an average price of $129 and exited around $650.

Bought Amazon, Google and a few others, making well over 2x on most positions.

Then moved into Alibaba and JD.

Alibaba at $65–70 was a complete no-brainer in my view.

Exited around $150.

After that, I shifted the entire allocation back to Indian markets.

Even today, there are pockets within Indian markets that look far more attractive than what I'm seeing in the US.

US markets may bounce again but remember risk reward dosent make sense.

#stockmarkets #nifty #nasdaq

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@JimmyGupta111 💯

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

My take is Eternal, swiggy, Lenskart don't have a major MOAT that they can 100X the EPS in next 5 years and are massively overvalued someone entering them now will make subpar returns in next 5-7 years.

Delhivery and PB fintech are relatively better in valuation terms but again not attractive.

March 2026 was the best month after covid to buy Microcaps and great businesses, many almost doubled from there. Still there are many pockets where good returns are yet to be made.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@Prakashplutus Mega-cap growth stocks led the wipeout ($1T+ lost) while Dow held up better, signaling sector rotation out of tech.

does this mean Emerging markets and india will not correct as much even if Fed hikes the rate ?

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@PKGM_2328 I started in mid 2022 - and mostly exited everything till late 2025. So far no issues for me but again not sure how is the platform currently.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

I was warning people around me to stay away from US stocks at current levels.

Ironically, back in 2022 when investing in the US wasn't fashionable I allocated nearly 20% of my portfolio there.

Bought Meta at an average price of $129 and exited around $650.

Bought Amazon, Google and a few others, making well over 2x on most positions.

Then moved into Alibaba and JD.

Alibaba at $65–70 was a complete no-brainer in my view.

Exited around $150.

After that, I shifted the entire allocation back to Indian markets.

Even today, there are pockets within Indian markets that look far more attractive than what I'm seeing in the US.

US markets may bounce again but remember risk reward dosent make sense.

#stockmarkets #nifty #nasdaq

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

More and more people around me started asking about US market investing, they want to invest in US markets now.

No body wants to accumulate when trailing returns are negative.

Classic case of Recency Bias.
Be it Gold be it silver bitcoin or Nvdia everyone wants to get on the train when its too late.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@microcp2mltibgr Well said 👏

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@PKGM_2328 I use INDmoney but you can also check vested.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@_uddinson_ Indian markets have done pretty well; just look at the microcap space. Earnings are phenomenal there. I have posted about a few names on my profile.

Not a buy or sell advice.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@ikjain6 You can use Indmoney or vested. I used INDmoney but i will suggest now is not the time.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@NaveenGoyal214 You can buy ADRs of some Chinese and other global companies from NYSE (New York Stock Exchange).

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@NaveenGoyal214 I used Indmoney.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@manish21688 U.S. big tech companies were already under pressure for several days because of liquidity getting sucked up for the SpaceX IPO.

Everything is falling today, probably because of leverage positions getting liquidated.

Even gold is suffering 😬.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

Let me tell you about my experience as an SDE-2.

We started a new project from scratch, and our initial timeline for launch was 9 months. With the help of Claude Code and Kiro, the revised estimate came down to 5 months, saving almost 4 months. Management was quite happy with the improvement.

However, there was a catch. We wrote the code extremely fast using spec-driven development, but several edge cases were missed, and fixing the resulting bugs became a major headache. As complexity increased, review times also increased significantly. Since most of the code was AI-generated, reviews were taking 2–3 times longer than usual.

Developer confidence was low, and a lot of effort was wasted on understanding and validating the generated code. Maintaining the codebase also became challenging whenever new requirements came up. In a few cases, Claude completely disrupted the existing flow while adding new features, creating additional rework and instability.

No doubt it brings overall efficiency but at the same time it makes the maintenance expensive.

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

Equitas SFB is looking great. The next few quarters look strong.🔥

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

Equitas Small Finance Bank delivers a great Q4FY26, signaling a powerful pivot from recovery to expansion! 🏦🚀

🔹 Profitability Surge: PAT reached ₹213 Cr with a stellar exit RoA of 1.46% (up from 0.65% QoQ), significantly outperforming the bank’s earlier guidance of ~1%.

🔹 NIM Expansion: Net Interest Margin jumped 57 bps to 7.29%. The Liability 2.0 strategy is delivering results Cost of Funds dropped to 6.94% as the bank optimized savings account costs and narrowed the rate gap with large private banks.

🔹 Asset Quality Cleanup: MFI stress is officially in the rearview mirror. Net slippages plummeted to a 10-quarter low of 0.79%. MFI DPD (1-90 days) crashed to just 1.43% from 7.82% a year ago, proving the credit cycle has bottomed out.

🔹 Record Growth & Secured Pivot: Highest-ever quarterly disbursements of ₹7,347 Cr. The portfolio is now 88% secured, with hyper-growth in Gold Loans (+180% YoY) and Used Vehicles (+25% to 31% YoY).

🔹 FY27 Outlook: Management is guiding for 20%+ loan growth and a full-year RoA of ~1.2%. With the Mobile 2.0 digital push set to lower the cost-to-income ratio, the bank is entering a high-operating-leverage phase.

Bottom Line: With a clean balance sheet, rising margins, and a focus on secured assets, Equitas is firmly back in Growth Mode and remains a top re-rating candidate in the SFB space. 📈

#EquitasBank #StockMarketIndia #BankingResults #NiftyBank #Q4FY26 #SmallFinanceBank

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

No hike this time

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

@shome_rajarshi Give it a read you will understand why V2 and Baazar style gave similar return over last one year.
https://t.co/tbhi0evUyg

[Vaibhav Joshi @InvestWithJoshi]

I think a lot of investors are getting the V2 Retail vs Baazar Style comparison wrong.

Not because V2 isn't a great business.

Not because Baazar Style is secretly a better business.

But because many investors are comparing reported numbers without fully understanding the accounting framework sitting behind those numbers.

If you look at Screener for five minutes, the conclusion seems obvious.

V2 Retail has crossed ₹3,000 crore revenue.

V2 Retail generated more than ₹160 crore PAT.

V2 Retail reports EBITDA margins close to 15%.

V2 Retail reports superior return ratios.

Baazar Style looks smaller.

Baazar Style looks less profitable.

Baazar Style looks more expensive.

Case closed.

At least that's what the market seems to think.

The funny thing is that if the answer was really that obvious, there wouldn't be an opportunity in the first place.

What made me question the entire narrative was a very simple observation.

V2 Retail generated more than ₹3,067 crore revenue during FY26.

Baazar Style generated around ₹1,840 crore.

One company is substantially larger than the other.

One company operates a bigger network.

One company generates dramatically higher sales.

Yet when you look at depreciation, V2 reported around ₹181 crore while Baazar Style reported around ₹170 crore.

Every time I look at those numbers I ask myself the same question.

How can two businesses of such different scale be carrying almost identical depreciation charges?

That is usually the point where most investors stop because depreciation is considered a boring accounting item. But in retail, especially after Ind AS 116, depreciation is not a boring accounting item at all. In many ways it tells you more about the lease structure of the business than about the actual operating performance.

What V2 did during FY26 was incredibly smart. Management reassessed a large part of its lease portfolio and effectively concluded that many leases should be viewed through the lens of the actual lock-in period rather than the much longer contractual duration that people usually focus on. The consequence of that decision was enormous. Almost ₹500 crore worth of lease assets and liabilities disappeared from the balance sheet.

Now obviously the stores did not disappear.

Customers did not disappear.

Revenue did not disappear.

The business remained exactly where it was.

The accounting changed.

And when the accounting changes, depreciation changes.

When depreciation changes, profitability changes.

When profitability changes, valuation multiples change.

Suddenly a business starts looking dramatically superior even though a meaningful part of that superiority is being driven by accounting treatment rather than incremental sales generated on the shop floor.

This is not a criticism of V2. In fact, if I were a shareholder I would argue that management deserves credit for understanding the accounting framework better than most companies. My issue is with investors who look at the final reported numbers and assume that every bit of the gap between V2 and Baazar Style is purely operational.

The same thing happens with SSSG comparisons.

I constantly see investors posting V2's SSSG numbers and using them as proof that the company is massively outperforming Baazar Style. What they often forget is that V2 calculates SSSG on stores that are 12 months old while Baazar Style uses stores that are 18 months old.

That difference may sound minor but in retail it is not minor at all because a store between month 12 and month 18 is still going through a very different growth curve compared to a fully seasoned store.

Whenever two companies use different maturity thresholds, comparing SSSG without adjusting for the definition becomes dangerous because you end up comparing metrics that look identical but are measuring different things.

None of this changes the fact that V2 is a fantastic operator.

The sales density numbers alone tell that story.

Generating more than ₹1,000 per square foot per month is exceptional and materially ahead of Baazar Style.

That advantage is real.

It is tangible.

It deserves a premium valuation.

But what I increasingly feel is that the market is attributing every single bit of V2's superiority to business quality while ignoring how much of the difference is being amplified by lease accounting, metric definitions and presentation choices.

The reality is probably somewhere in the middle.

V2 is almost certainly the better operator.

Baazar Style is almost certainly not as weak as the reported numbers make it appear.

And investors who understand that distinction are probably much closer to understanding the actual economics of both businesses than those who are simply looking at Screener and deciding which stock is cheaper.