Brian Goebel

I have over 30 years of experience with guiding companies through IPOs, troubled debt restructurings, capital markets and personal investments.

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

We were correct in the MSTR direction. That said you do not buy insurance when the house is on fire. If you are involved in MSTR, at this point you need to wait for the 5th Feb earnings. Our model shows a move to the upside from oversold positions. A spike to the upside on low volume is a death nail. You just need it to play out.

Now is the time for review. We had committed a number of puts, 46, which is the largest position the Firm has taken on any directional move. Through proper management we realized a +30% gain in the last two months.

In the midst of being behind during this trade it is natural you question yourself. That is normal. Beware of the risk to double down - save that for BJ at the casino. Remember charts are just math so listen to the chart and not what you want to see. We also called for you the gold and silver trade. Hopefully that worked out for you.

One needs to decide what you want to risk and when to walk away. Investing will always be easier if you have your losses or gains targeted. Singles and doubles win - home runs are quickly out lived.

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

We are not surprised by the price action in precious metals on Friday. Hopefully you were able to make adjustments accordingly. Call it age or experience we have just seen it too many times.

Bitcoin traded below so phycological levels over the weekend - in thin trading. We have seen some of the social media posts and are just taking note. Let's see how markets start opening in the global trading day.

Warning to those chasing yield - Even a 100% yield will not compensate for a 100% default. Do your homework. Sometimes those high yielders are trading that way for a reason.

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings LLC, 29th January 2025 @12:33ET

Crypto Currency Fall as Risk Off Trade Works

A "stable" Fed, geopolitical and broken technical support are all weighing on MSTR. Depending on your chart indicators $150 or $145 were your support levels. MSTR printed a low today of $142.60 and hovers around $144.50. We took advantage of the profit opportunity to scale back our notional exposures. We held the positions we really like e.g. MSTR $185 Apr puts. A solid close below $145 and look out below.

#ibit #mstr #bitcoin

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings LLC, 29th January 2025 @12:33ET

Crypto Currency Fall as Risk Off Trade Works

A "stable" Fed, geopolitical and broken technical support are all weighing on MSTR. Depending on your chart indicators $150 or $145 were your support levels. MSTR printed a low today of $142.60 and hovers around $144.50. We took advantage of the profit opportunity to scale back our notional exposures. We held the positions we really like e.g. MSTR $185 Apr puts. A solid close below $145 and look out below.

#ibit #mstr #bitcoin

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings, LLC, Brian Goebel, as Member 28th January 2026

Fed Holds Rates as Gold Rips to Upside with Feb Futures Hitting Over $5,500 per troy oz

The GLD safe haven has proven to be just that, despite gains in the S&P 500. We have been all over this one since GLD was in the $320s back in July (now $495). We can't make the same claim for SLV now at $106 and we would have sold at $75ish. These price swings are getting to be parabolic moves. In a portfolio with GLD well in excess of 5% of the portfolio, we would scale back for better entry points.

As previously reported, we scaled out of our QQQ puts with some gains. However, we maintained out bearish positions on MSTR. The IBIT has not shown the customer zeal for safe haven that gold has enjoyed, and MSTR less so. With MSTR earnings due 5th of February, we only expect a spike in volatility. The street already knows the earnings are going to be bad so the call will come down to cash flow forecasts, management ability to execute and monetize the strategy and shareholder dilution.

#fed #rates #sp500 #spy #gold #gld #slv #ibit #bitcoin #mstr

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings, LLC, Brian Goebel, as Member 28th January 2026

Fed Holds Rates as Gold Rips to Upside with Feb Futures Hitting Over $5,500 per troy oz

The GLD safe haven has proven to be just that, despite gains in the S&P 500. We have been all over this one since GLD was in the $320s back in July (now $495). We can't make the same claim for SLV now at $106 and we would have sold at $75ish. These price swings are getting to be parabolic moves. In a portfolio with GLD well in excess of 5% of the portfolio, we would scale back for better entry points.

As previously reported, we scaled out of our QQQ puts with some gains. However, we maintained out bearish positions on MSTR. The IBIT has not shown the customer zeal for safe haven that gold has enjoyed, and MSTR less so. With MSTR earnings due 5th of February, we only expect a spike in volatility. The street already knows the earnings are going to be bad so the call will come down to cash flow forecasts, management ability to execute and monetize the strategy and shareholder dilution.

#fed #rates #sp500 #spy #gold #gld #slv #ibit #bitcoin #mstr

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings LLC, Brian Goebel, as Member, 20th January 2026

Tariff Uncertainty Kicks Off "Risk Off" Day - Can't Buy Insurance Once the House is Burning

Ten-year yield spikes over 4.3%. Gold and Silver may large gains with new highs. For those who followed us into AEM back in the August time line - you are welcome. If you made out in silver ETFs or the miners god bless.
SPY - gaps lower and can't recover over the 50-day MA. Stochastics breaking down.
QQQ - gaps lower ending below 50- 21- day MAs, Stochastics negative. Mega cap tech is bear market. Sorry too late to sell those covered calls (short against the box). Wait for the bounce and then reassess. Just stay short on the calendar.
IBIT - gaps lower closes below 5-day and testing 21-day MA
MSTR - as we predicted yesterday before the open MSTR was headed to "$165 ish" from $174. MSTR opened at $165, low at $159; close $160. In our opinion management is whistling past the grave yard to the Bitcoin superstore. Correction - EPS is due on 5th Feb. Baring anything "stupid" - and you can define that. The Street knows earnings are in the toilet if management can articulate the benefits of the "financial engining" (in managements own words), you may just get that bounce up to resistance levels . Cash flow from the one operating segment does not even cover SGA.

Interesting note - More States looking to have their own digital asset albeit a stable coin or not. Set aside they are just getting in late to the party and want to just use these coins for vendor payments. In the constitution a State is precluded from issuing a currency. But if they did could you imagine getting CaliCoins and converting it for TexasTokens? The last time I remember individual states in a country was the South in the Civil War. Not sure that worked out real well. We guess a time before that would be the original colonies that in addition English Crowns there was colonial script.

So what did we do. Remember those put position we had at the beginning of the year and rolled in some cases into Q2 - we call it insanity insurance? Well we converted some of those 30%-40% losses into 10% gains or a push. We took cash off the table to play later. Again and again - Capital reserves. We still are sitting with control over mid-six figures worth of stock highly volatile when compared to the S&P.

#SPY #QQQ #options #IBIT #MSTR #BitCoin #puts

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings LLC, Brian Goebel as Member, 18th January 2025

Understanding and Using Options - Time is Money, Understanding Theta - Part IV

In Part IV of our option series is understanding how time to an options' expiration impacts option pricing. In previous posts we have discussed: General terms and concepts, Delta (how an option price moves relative to the underlying asset or what is the probability a particular contract will go in-the-money by expiration), and Gamma - if Delta is the rate of change (think speed of a car) then Gamma is the accelerator as your Delta changes over a given period. It is a point in time measuring speed. As you increase acceleration (you go from 55mph to 75mph your Delta moves closer to a 1:1 option price to price of the underlying.

Theta is time to expiration. Think auto insurance again. What is the higher contract value or premium? A 12-month auto insurance policy or a 6-month policy. Simple right? New term - Time Decay - the rate of change between 12 months and 6 months. For options time value is NOT linear. You can't say that for each day, time is worth $X. Time decay is like costing downhill with no breaks; each mile that passes the rate of time decay becomes faster and faster. So how do I make money? Persons selling options (writing that insurance policy) are betting that the options they are selling will be worthless at expiration. Back to our auto insurance. The insurance company is betting you will not have a claim during the policy period. As a buyer of insurance, you are betting that you will have a claim.

Hang tight just 2 more Greeks to go and then we will put a bow on it. Stay tuned.

Remember even if you did not learn anything today - you learned something.

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings LLC, Brian Goebel as Member, 18th January 2025

Understanding and Using Options - Time is Money, Understanding Theta - Part IV

In Part IV of our option series is understanding how time to an options' expiration impacts option pricing. In previous posts we have discussed: General terms and concepts, Delta (how an option price moves relative to the underlying asset or what is the probability a particular contract will go in-the-money by expiration), and Gamma - if Delta is the rate of change (think speed of a car) then Gamma is the accelerator as your Delta changes over a given period. It is a point in time measuring speed. As you increase acceleration (you go from 55mph to 75mph your Delta moves closer to a 1:1 option price to price of the underlying.

Theta is time to expiration. Think auto insurance again. What is the higher contract value or premium? A 12-month auto insurance policy or a 6-month policy. Simple right? New term - Time Decay - the rate of change between 12 months and 6 months. For options time value is NOT linear. You can't say that for each day, time is worth $X. Time decay is like costing downhill with no breaks; each mile that passes the rate of time decay becomes faster and faster. So how do I make money? Persons selling options (writing that insurance policy) are betting that the options they are selling will be worthless at expiration. Back to our auto insurance. The insurance company is betting you will not have a claim during the policy period. As a buyer of insurance, you are betting that you will have a claim.

Hang tight just 2 more Greeks to go and then we will put a bow on it. Stay tuned.

Remember even if you did not learn anything today - you learned something.

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings LLC, Brian Goebel as member, 18th January 2025 - The Weekend Edition

Watch the Ten-Year Yields - Bond Market Will Outsmart Stock Market

10-Year bond yields drove to the hoop on Friday getting over 4.2%. Is the canary singing? Not just yet but it gets our attention and comment here. Inflation reports are due next week and that just may box the Fed in despite the wishes of the Administration.

We concede the market has been performing well. However, we can't ignore longer yields which is a "tax" on corporate borrowing. The big mega-cap tech keeps getting hammered (think QQQ). The Administration is creating market uncertainty as "tweets" send industries gapping higher and lower (credit cards, oil prices, home purchases, tariffs - and yes tariffs are a tax on the end consumer, Econ 101). Distribution days (go look it up) 6 on Nasdaq and 4 on S&P). Precious metals make new highs for the week. Oh and just a few things going on geopolitically.

We are not political here we just state what we see. We are not perma-bears or -bulls. One just needs to take in all the facts and look at the charts. Are we selling everything and hiding in our bunker - heck no. But we stand firm with the insurance policies we have in place and we keep our powder dry. Market is closed Monday so take that extra time and do your homework.

The earnings calendar is packed. Remember it is not just the news but the reaction to the news. Unless you have an edge do not play the earnings release.

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings LLC, Brian Goebel as member, 18th January 2025 - The Weekend Edition

Watch the Ten-Year Yields - Bond Market Will Outsmart Stock Market

10-Year bond yields drove to the hoop on Friday getting over 4.2%. Is the canary singing? Not just yet but it gets our attention and comment here. Inflation reports are due next week and that just may box the Fed in despite the wishes of the Administration.

We concede the market has been performing well. However, we can't ignore longer yields which is a "tax" on corporate borrowing. The big mega-cap tech keeps getting hammered (think QQQ). The Administration is creating market uncertainty as "tweets" send industries gapping higher and lower (credit cards, oil prices, home purchases, tariffs - and yes tariffs are a tax on the end consumer, Econ 101). Distribution days (go look it up) 6 on Nasdaq and 4 on S&P). Precious metals make new highs for the week. Oh and just a few things going on geopolitically.

We are not political here we just state what we see. We are not perma-bears or -bulls. One just needs to take in all the facts and look at the charts. Are we selling everything and hiding in our bunker - heck no. But we stand firm with the insurance policies we have in place and we keep our powder dry. Market is closed Monday so take that extra time and do your homework.

The earnings calendar is packed. Remember it is not just the news but the reaction to the news. Unless you have an edge do not play the earnings release.

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings LLC, Brian Goebel, as Member, 14th January 2025 @ 13:47 ET

"Income Is Opinion; CASH Is Fact"

No words could ring more true for earnings season. Up until yesterday the markets have been acting well and with good action in the banks and the semis. We were regretting the insurance policies in place coming into the new year. Now you have today. We scaled out of our SPY puts before the new year at a gain but we held the QQQs. We closed our open positions in the Jan QQQ puts and continue to hold the March contracts. We just want that extra layer of protection given all the JELL-O moving on the plate.

Taking advantage of the January bull we sold covered calls on TSLA and GOOGL collecting a sizable premiums. We chose to sell the Feb calls since it is a short month and as such the time decay is faster (Time = Theta). Look for Part IV in our "Using Options" series where we will discuss how to understand time and its impact on option value.

GLD and SLV continue to rip to the upside. Which on the surface just makes you scratch your head. We do not hold SLV. We done to those with the intestinal fortitude to do so.

MSTR - We are just taking a beating on our bearish positions. But time is on our side -- for now. Earnings are due Feb 3rd and anyone with a calculator knows they are going to be bad. To management's credit they are using MTM accounting for the 650k Bitcoin on hand. But therein lies the rub. MSTR can only earn cash to pay its bills by selling Bitcoin; the other operations cash flow about $125mm - a drop in the bucket, More leverage or more dilution is not the way to prosperity. The company refers to its financial engineering Bitcoin derivatives to drive value but again that leverages the holdings. You can not make cash by just holding Bitcoin just like we can't make cash on the GLD sitting in the top desk draw. You have to sell it to a higher bidder. Once you sell it - your done.

#SPY #qqq #options #ibit #mstr #gld #slv

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings LLC, Brian Goebel, as Member, 14th January 2025 @ 13:47 ET

"Income Is Opinion; CASH Is Fact"

No words could ring more true for earnings season. Up until yesterday the markets have been acting well and with good action in the banks and the semis. We were regretting the insurance policies in place coming into the new year. Now you have today. We scaled out of our SPY puts before the new year at a gain but we held the QQQs. We closed our open positions in the Jan QQQ puts and continue to hold the March contracts. We just want that extra layer of protection given all the JELL-O moving on the plate.

Taking advantage of the January bull we sold covered calls on TSLA and GOOGL collecting a sizable premiums. We chose to sell the Feb calls since it is a short month and as such the time decay is faster (Time = Theta). Look for Part IV in our "Using Options" series where we will discuss how to understand time and its impact on option value.

GLD and SLV continue to rip to the upside. Which on the surface just makes you scratch your head. We do not hold SLV. We done to those with the intestinal fortitude to do so.

MSTR - We are just taking a beating on our bearish positions. But time is on our side -- for now. Earnings are due Feb 3rd and anyone with a calculator knows they are going to be bad. To management's credit they are using MTM accounting for the 650k Bitcoin on hand. But therein lies the rub. MSTR can only earn cash to pay its bills by selling Bitcoin; the other operations cash flow about $125mm - a drop in the bucket, More leverage or more dilution is not the way to prosperity. The company refers to its financial engineering Bitcoin derivatives to drive value but again that leverages the holdings. You can not make cash by just holding Bitcoin just like we can't make cash on the GLD sitting in the top desk draw. You have to sell it to a higher bidder. Once you sell it - your done.

#SPY #qqq #options #ibit #mstr #gld #slv

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holds Short-term Bearish Options for SPY, QQQ, and MSTR; Bullish Gold; Take Profits SLV

Although the unrealized losses on bearish positions for SPY and QQQ are difficult to hold looking at bullish chart patterns, the put/call ratio is looking mildly cautious. As previously reported we rolled the calendar out to the first quarter in SPY and QQQ. We never buy options in Feb due to time and volatility compression. Look for our future posts on "Using and Valuing Options" for further discussion. We believe we have time for these to play out and will sit tight. All we have at risk is the premium paid so a 100% loss will not bring down the house of cards. Upside is more or less unlimited.

MSTR - We went back over the Q3 earnings call and December earnings guide. Take aways:
- MSTR is creating more retail financially engineered products for sale with the Bitcoin holdings as an underpin
- The earnings call was very focused on the retail investor purchasing MSTR preferred shares, and managements' view that preferred shares are a "perpetual" debt with no maturity
- Updated earnings guide has an $11B spread and is completely dependent on non-cash mark-to-market gain/loss on Bitcoin.
- The short interest is about 2 days to cover. Meaning the bears are not fully in despite bearish long-term patterns.

Now step back - You purchase stock in companies because management has the ability to combine varied asset classes to create future cash earnings. Period. Earnings for MSTR is completely out of management's control. Put all that in the mixing bowl and you understand our bearish positions going out to April.

GLD and SLV - We are long-time favs of the GLD and our physical. We also like our numismatic holdings of precious metals. But if you are in SLV, just know that it is highly volatile. No one will ever criticize realizing profits and playing with the houses' money. Note all the headlines for precious metals. We believe that is driving more retail players to the party. Retail players are traditionally late to the game.

#options #gld #slv #spy #qqq #mstr

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holds Short-term Bearish Options for SPY, QQQ, and MSTR; Bullish Gold; Take Profits SLV

Although the unrealized losses on bearish positions for SPY and QQQ are difficult to hold looking at bullish chart patterns, the put/call ratio is looking mildly cautious. As previously reported we rolled the calendar out to the first quarter in SPY and QQQ. We never buy options in Feb due to time and volatility compression. Look for our future posts on "Using and Valuing Options" for further discussion. We believe we have time for these to play out and will sit tight. All we have at risk is the premium paid so a 100% loss will not bring down the house of cards. Upside is more or less unlimited.

MSTR - We went back over the Q3 earnings call and December earnings guide. Take aways:
- MSTR is creating more retail financially engineered products for sale with the Bitcoin holdings as an underpin
- The earnings call was very focused on the retail investor purchasing MSTR preferred shares, and managements' view that preferred shares are a "perpetual" debt with no maturity
- Updated earnings guide has an $11B spread and is completely dependent on non-cash mark-to-market gain/loss on Bitcoin.
- The short interest is about 2 days to cover. Meaning the bears are not fully in despite bearish long-term patterns.

Now step back - You purchase stock in companies because management has the ability to combine varied asset classes to create future cash earnings. Period. Earnings for MSTR is completely out of management's control. Put all that in the mixing bowl and you understand our bearish positions going out to April.

GLD and SLV - We are long-time favs of the GLD and our physical. We also like our numismatic holdings of precious metals. But if you are in SLV, just know that it is highly volatile. No one will ever criticize realizing profits and playing with the houses' money. Note all the headlines for precious metals. We believe that is driving more retail players to the party. Retail players are traditionally late to the game.

#options #gld #slv #spy #qqq #mstr

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Takes 40% Profit on Bear SPYs and Rolls Out the Calendar

As you know we were concerned about our bearish positions going into today's triple witching. We took profits and rolled into the first quarter. The inflation data was muted but the thing about stats - you can make them say what you want. We turned off CNBC and chose to re-read the definition of "distribution days". We have bearish positions on SPY and QQQ. We also took profits in NVDA for 5% in a short-term trade.

IBIT / MSTR - We reported that IBIT looks to be trying to form a bottom. The jury is still out. A break below $47ish and look out below. We still do not understand the value proposition of MSTR. In order to service debt and generate cash flow, they have to sell Bitcoin. The very asset they propose makes them investable. Only time will tell but we have gone bearish well into Q2-2026.

#options #SPY #ibit #MSTR #distributiondays #IBD

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Takes 40% Profit on Bear SPYs and Rolls Out the Calendar

As you know we were concerned about our bearish positions going into today's triple witching. We took profits and rolled into the first quarter. The inflation data was muted but the thing about stats - you can make them say what you want. We turned off CNBC and chose to re-read the definition of "distribution days". We have bearish positions on SPY and QQQ. We also took profits in NVDA for 5% in a short-term trade.

IBIT / MSTR - We reported that IBIT looks to be trying to form a bottom. The jury is still out. A break below $47ish and look out below. We still do not understand the value proposition of MSTR. In order to service debt and generate cash flow, they have to sell Bitcoin. The very asset they propose makes them investable. Only time will tell but we have gone bearish well into Q2-2026.

#options #SPY #ibit #MSTR #distributiondays #IBD

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings LLC, Brian Goebel as Member, 15th December 2025

Understanding and Using Options – Part III – Using Gamma to Measure Delta

In Part II we discussed the basics of Delta. As a reminder, Delta is the measure of a change in an option price relative to a $1 change in the underlying. In-the-money options would have a larger price change relative to the underlying than would an out-of-the-money option with a positive correlation (call) or a negative correlation (put). Also, we defined several terms in our earlier posts so refer to them as a resource.

Gamma measures the amount of change in Delta for a $1 change in the underlying. Whaaaatttt? No really this is easy. Let’s just use our simple call option example. We have two call options one that is $5 in-the-money and one that is at-the-money. We were right in the direction of the underlying stock of X Co. X Co stock increased $10 over our forecast period. Great!! Two Thumbs Up!! Now which option made us more money, an already in-the-money call ($5 in-the-money and now $15 in-the-money) OR the at-the-money call now $10 in-the-money? All things equal, the deeper in-the-money $15 call option is worth more, and would change its value in closer relation to the value of X Co. Perhaps not 1:1 but close.

Let’s use cars as an illustration. If Delta is the measure of speed (change in price) then Gamma is acceleration (the rate of change in speed). We have a Kia sub-compact and a Ferrari. They both can go 60 mph, but which car gets to 60 mph faster? Correct, the Ferrari. Now you understand two of the key metrics in option pricing Delta and Gamma, and your brain did not explode. Congratulations.
#investing201 #options101 #thegreeks #options #optionsmadeeasy

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings LLC, Brian Goebel as Member, 15th December 2025

Understanding and Using Options – Part III – Using Gamma to Measure Delta

In Part II we discussed the basics of Delta. As a reminder, Delta is the measure of a change in an option price relative to a $1 change in the underlying. In-the-money options would have a larger price change relative to the underlying than would an out-of-the-money option with a positive correlation (call) or a negative correlation (put). Also, we defined several terms in our earlier posts so refer to them as a resource.

Gamma measures the amount of change in Delta for a $1 change in the underlying. Whaaaatttt? No really this is easy. Let’s just use our simple call option example. We have two call options one that is $5 in-the-money and one that is at-the-money. We were right in the direction of the underlying stock of X Co. X Co stock increased $10 over our forecast period. Great!! Two Thumbs Up!! Now which option made us more money, an already in-the-money call ($5 in-the-money and now $15 in-the-money) OR the at-the-money call now $10 in-the-money? All things equal, the deeper in-the-money $15 call option is worth more, and would change its value in closer relation to the value of X Co. Perhaps not 1:1 but close.

Let’s use cars as an illustration. If Delta is the measure of speed (change in price) then Gamma is acceleration (the rate of change in speed). We have a Kia sub-compact and a Ferrari. They both can go 60 mph, but which car gets to 60 mph faster? Correct, the Ferrari. Now you understand two of the key metrics in option pricing Delta and Gamma, and your brain did not explode. Congratulations.
#investing201 #options101 #thegreeks #options #optionsmadeeasy

[Brian Goebel @Investing201]

R&B Holdings, LLC, Brian Goebel, as Founding Member, 13th December 2025

SPY and QQQ show a Failed Bullish Hammer

Coming to you live from our Northeastern Theater of Operations in 15 deg F weather and a box press Rocky Patel Decade - smooth, slow burn with that little spicy kick and earthy undertones. With the fireplace going full tilt, we are deeply contemplating Friday's market action.

Conclusion - This is a bearish formation on higher volume than the preceding days. It feels like standing with an 18 looking at a dealer holding a 10. We are going to hold our position but not commit more capital. We are up 13% on the combined trade. We need to monitor things closely as the time value is working against us.

#spy #qqq #cigars #options