Alchemist of the Cosmos

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

@toiletkingcap Bruh, 320 Jan $55's

[0SG @Zerosumgame33]

$CLMT I first got involved July 2024 @ $11-$12 around the time of the MLP/C-corp conversion with about ~1/3 of a full position. I quickly became fascinated by Montana Renewables as Calumet equity was pricing in negative value. I rode the stock up to the low $20's until the shit hit the fan w/ the DOE loan in question w/ Trump taking office & the ensuing botched ATM which caused a bunch of shorts to pile in (at one point ~30% of the float) & the sell-side to publish bullshit fear mongering opinions. The stock then bottomed @ ~$7 on the back of Jeremy Raper publishing a super slimey & misleading short hit piece on X (which I vigorously defended). As the stock cratered, I knew I had an edge from doing the the real work having talked to everyone under the sun in the industry about the upcoming set 2 RVO & likely RIN response. An opportunity presented in the stock despite my stomach in knots on a daily basis and despite being under water on my position, I had the courage/conviction to put on the remaining ~2/3 of my position in the $8's (all documented on X). I absolutely needed to be 100% right on my D4 RIN call surging off the $.60 lows in a post RVO world and turns out I was (for many reasons). Now the stock is up ~5x off the lows and I think the r/r is the best its ever been given the earnings visibility afforded by 3 year take-or-pay contracts @ MRL. My DCF model - driven by my estimate of what MRL phase 2 could look like - spits out $80-$100 primarily sensitized by a range of RD index margin levels driven by D4 RIN values & corresponding de-leveraging of the balance sheet accretion to equity. Today, I'm sitting here waiting patiently witht the same level of conviction in mgmt's ability to unlock the full value of Montana Renewables over the next 9-12-18 months. Todd & Bruce are two of the most capable and savvy operators I've been fortunate enough to interact with in my decade+ investing in small caps. Their incentives are 100% aligned with shareholders. Valhalla awaits.

[0SG @Zerosumgame33]

$CLMT 🚨Votes are in. In Todd Borgmann we trust.🚨

I will completely stop tweeting $CLMT until this post gets at least 150 likes.

Todd is taking us to Valhalla. Show some love.

[0SG @Zerosumgame33]

$CLMT current cap table @ $38.50.

$3.3B mkt cap, $2.2B net debt, $5.5B EV.

Core biz + MRL Phase 2 indicated ~$700 million combined FREE CASH FLOW.

___________________________

A) Core biz =
$425M EBITDA @ SPS ($45/bbl GC 2-1-1 cracks)
$75M EBITDA @ PB (after 20 px raises)
$50M EBITDA @ Asphalt
$80M Corporate
= ~$470 Core EBITDA

B) MRL Phase 2 @ 87% ownership=
$2.50 Index margin
90% index capture
$1.00 Net SAF premium
$0.25 Transport cost
$0.50 SG&A & site opex
240M SAF gallons
= ~$600M MRL EBITDA

Total $CLMT EBITDA = ~$1.1 billion

Core normalized capex = $75M (this year ex turnarounds)

MRL normaized maintenance capex = $15M (this year ex turnarounds)

Cash interest w/ no debt paydown = $180M

Cash taxes = $0 (> $1B+ NOL's)

Free cash flow = ~$700M

8% target yield = $100/share

________________________

In additon.....

~3 years to net cash w/ organic FCF generation ($2.3B net debt / $700M FCF)

wipes $180M of cash interest expense

capitalized @ 12.5x (8% yield)

is an additional $25/share interest savings + $25/share in debt-paydown accretive to equity.

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

@Zerosumgame33 Wanted to say thank you for sharing your research on $clmt Ive enjoyed following along

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

and the most ridiculous of them all, $SLV. #Silversqueeze

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

I created this TradingView indicator to quickly see the performance difference in various commodities between the overnight session (orange) and the New York session (blue). This one on the $PALL #palladium ETF chart caught my eye: the overnight price has already broken ATHs, while the regular session price is still 50% below ATH. Interesting! #Silver $SLV $GLD

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

For those curious, I'll post a few more, starting with $IBIT.

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

@weary_centurion $CMRC also very cheap here

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

@MaxxChewning 18% in week 1 is a heck of a start!

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

@TylerDurden Wow, Thanks for that shot of nostalgia!

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

@PriskaJordan @LilaGraceRose Can someone offer a Real Life example of what it means to “submit”? I’d like to understand myself what you all mean when you say it.

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

Nature operates on much longer time frames than us individual humans may like, but it always heals itself.

I am in constant awe of the intelligent design.

[Calley Means @calleymeans]

Democrats are now chugging bottles of Tylenol on TikTok.

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

@piovincenzo_ The main argument is that is lets management have a longer term focus. Longer term decisions --> create longer term value.

But personally I don't see how going from every 3 months to every 6 months makes a significant impact.

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

@SpeculatorArt Finally got around to funding a @Polymarket and took the Yes on 50 bps+ as my first trade. Felt underpriced at 7%-8%.

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

@MaxxChewning Congratulations Maxx! Enjoyed following along on your journey

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

@historyinmemes Wow @PriskaJordan

[Alchemist of the Cosmos @InvestorUsf]

@OddStockTrader Indeed it is @PriskaJordan