Mike Singleton, CFA

PM at Diamond Capital Management

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

@pmje73 I like using the slope of the 200-dma. For 3-6m fwd returns, that works best from my work. Slope right now is very steep (5th quintile, 5y rolling basis). Oversold readings in such trend regimes are usually good times to add for most stock exposures

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

https://t.co/tDmLIy7qxd

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

The measured economic data is good.

And in fact, it's improving.

Moreover, credit broadly remains healthy. Spreads & other measures are indicating that this is a "buyable dip".

Not a recession.

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

$MU down 30%
$SNDK down 45%
$QQQ approaching correction territory

But credit remains firm... Spreads down, leveraged loans at all-time highs, bank stocks ripping

What does this tend to indicate about forward returns?

[Catholic Review @CatholicReview]

For a university founded in 1808, Emmitsburg’s @MSMU has surprisingly few #books telling its story. That bothered alumnus John Singleton, Class of 1986, enough that he wrote one himself. https://t.co/AXnncRlEyV #Colleges #LocalNews #WesternVicariate

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

In June, headline CPI declined 42 basis points month-over-month.

Historically, negative inflation prints during economic expansions have been *very* bullish for stocks

$SPY
Almost 90% win-rate over the next six months
+8.2% on average

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

@KingJam27642032 Good to hear from you!

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

Despite high gas prices, geopolitics, and a million other issues... The US consumer continues to power through

Spending growth approaching 9% by some measures

That's a considerable tailwind to corporate earnings...

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

@KingJam27642032 Unfortunately, the Daily Edge is no longer being published. I've transitioned from my role at Invictus to a portfolio manager position at an investment firm, Diamond Capital Management out of Indy

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

@SizeInvestor No impact

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

@FeldtInvesting I'll concede that the px post 6/1 was puzzling

Would be surprised if uncertainty around safety profile remains as BO probability rises headed into Crohn's

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

@FeldtInvesting Not talking about personal finances. Talking about investing principles.

In principal, there should be no cancer overhang without evidence

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

Despite all of the concern about private credit and "weakness beneath the surface"...

Credit conditions defined broadly remain quite favorable

This is what a bull market looks like...

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

The measured economic data is good.

And in fact, it's improving.

Moreover, credit broadly remains healthy. Spreads & other measures are indicating that this is a "buyable dip".

Not a recession.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Don't spend a ton of time reading Fed commentary, but this seems roughly in line with where I'd expect the committee to be at right now - hopeful its in the past - and not in line with hikes needed now or anytime soon...

https://t.co/3FUfYrkK4v

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

@MarkNeuman18 Meh. I'm not so sure of that. >60% SP500 above 20, 50, 200-dma

>70% SP600

$RSP at ATHs

[Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro]

@aaron_renn Why do you say that? Have any of the drivers of recent populism abated?