Invysting

Salaried. Curious. Figuring it out. 🇵🇰
Sharing notes on data-driven investing - no expert claims. 📊
⚠️ Not financial advice.

[Invysting @Invysting]

History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.

BTC’s structure now mirrors 2022:
Rising wedge → breakdown → liquidity flush below support.
Back then, it was the start of a deeper downtrend. If this fractal continues to rhyme, we are likely still far from the cycle bottom.

#BTC

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Zcash crashes 48% after Claude AI finds critical vulnerability allowing unlimited minting of $ZEC.

It went unnoticed for 4 years until it was patched on June 1st.

[Invysting @Invysting]

EID Mubarak 🐐

[Invysting @Invysting]

@BrianFeroldi 10-15 in my opinion, that’s the sweet spot.

[Invysting @Invysting]

@Kalshi S&P 500 is not a diversified investment anymore. People should look into other asset classes to fill the void.

[Invysting @Invysting]

@S_Mikhailovich 🤯

[Invysting @Invysting]

@stats_feed Naah man, we’re cooking!

[Invysting @Invysting]

@TheGlobal_Index Talk about concentration risk 🤦

[Invysting @Invysting]

5/5
Instead, identify the 8 to 10 names you actually want from these baskets. Buy them directly on PSX. Use SIP for regular investing. Rebalance weights every 6 months. Brokerage cost is minimal. You own the same companies, keep the fee, and stay in full control.

[Invysting @Invysting]

Pakistan ETFs are growing in popularity. The pitch is simple: one click, instant diversification. But there are two structural problems that don’t get talked about enough, concentration and fees. Both eat into your returns more than they should.
A thread. 🧵

[Invysting @Invysting]

4/5
MIIETF expense ratio is 1.05%. MZNPETF management fee is up to 0.75% with a SECP-allowed TER ceiling of 2.5%. These are passive funds doing no active stock picking. On Rs.1,000,000 over 10 years at 12% gross, a 1% annual fee costs you roughly Rs.190,000 in lost compounding.

[Invysting @Invysting]

@benjamincowen No one interested in crypto anymore. Money has gone into AI and leftover is in BTC, ALTS are officially dead.

[Invysting @Invysting]

@EVCurveFuturist @EconomistAadil Solar is the way forward if we figure out cheap storage.

[Invysting @Invysting]

PBS weekly SPI for week ending May 14: 14.52% YoY. Tracks 51 essentials across 17 cities. Petrol +64%, diesel +62%, wheat flour +58%, electricity +53%. SPI leads CPI by weeks. April CPI was 10.9%. Do the math.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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#PakistanInflation #PSX

[Invysting @Invysting]

🙌

[Invysting @Invysting]

8/8
Until the Middle East situation resolves, inflation stays above 10%, SBP stays hawkish and PSX stays rangebound at best. The market is trading at 6.9x forward PE which looks cheap. But cheap can get cheaper when the macro is moving against you.

[Invysting @Invysting]

6/8
KSE-100 closed at 162,994 last week, down 4.5% week on week. It started 2026 at 176,000. The bull thesis for this year was built on falling rates, macro stability and IMF support. Two of those three are now under serious strain.

[Invysting @Invysting]

7/8
The IMF board meets May 8 with $1.2 billion on the table. Pakistan has met most conditions so that disbursement likely goes through. That is the one near term catalyst that could stabilise sentiment. But it does not fix inflation and it does not bring rates down.

[Invysting @Invysting]

5/8
For PSX specifically, three pressure points. Banks face margin compression if rates keep rising and deposit costs move faster than lending repricing. E&Ps and OMCs get volume pressure as high fuel costs suppress demand. Cement and auto face slowing consumer spending.

[Invysting @Invysting]

4/8
Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose to 8% in urban areas. That tells you this is no longer just an oil story. Second round effects are kicking in. Wages, rents, services all repricing. SBP said as much when they hiked. They will hike again if this continues