John Irish

French-English despite the name. Covers foreign affairs for Reuters in Paris, lots of other bits. views my own etc, Arsenal fan for my sins

[John Irish @IrishJReuters]

Come on Arsenal!

[Arsenal @Arsenal]

This belongs to all of us.

[Beth Rigby @BethRigby]

“It’s not done”. It is now 🏆🥳🙌🍾

[John Irish @IrishJReuters]

CHAMPIONS - Good to be a gooner!

[John Irish @IrishJReuters]

@PHREUTERS Significant gaps remain …

[Parisa Hafezi @PHREUTERS]

Confirming what Iranian official told me: Asked about reporting that Iran said significant differences remain, Trump said: "Well, there could be, let's see what happens. If there are, we'll have to straighten it out. But I don't think there's too many significant differences."👇

[Eric Brewer @BrewerEricM]

Precisely. And let’s game this out further.

In one scenario, the U.S. and Iran sit at the table for another year plus and hammer out these (very important) details on the nuclear issue. The traditional negotiating model. That seems unlikely. Trump won’t go for that and frankly I’m not sure the Iranians would either.

In another, more likely scenario, there is a high level agreement that is then kicked to lower level teams to work out the details. How’s that conversation gonna go when Iran wants to keep all the centrifuges, build in a timeline for R&D and gradual ramp up, push back on intrusive inspections, etc—all arguably within the bounds of a high level agreement on enrichment suspension, or at least not explicitly out of bounds? My guess is not well given Trump’s vision of “no enrichment” and pressures on the administration.

Relatedly, if it’s not clear as part of that high level deal that Iran has to pause all nuclear activity (ie, not build back) while detailed talks are underway, we could find ourselves back in the old cycle of Iran building up its capabilities for negotiating leverage to extract further concessions. In this scenario, there’s a very high likelihood that talks break down, and we’re back to square one.

In a third scenario, there’s a high level agreement, but the Trump administration essentially declares victory and moves on. That’s also incredibly worrying as Iran would have a free hand to do quite a bit on the program without formally enriching. And there’s nothing to prevent Trump from waking up one day and deciding Iran had gone too far and crossed some red line that wasn’t explicitly agreed.

All this to say, there seems to be a lot of optimism around the U.S. and Iran closing this gap on enrichment suspension timelines and HEU. Will they get there? Maybe. But there are many other details that would need to be worked out to make this a strong, verifiable agreement, creating plenty of room for things to go south in the medium term.

[Reuters @Reuters]

Iran is close to finalizing a deal with China to buy supersonic anti‑ship missiles, sources tell Reuters. The possible sale comes as a US naval fleet masses near the Iranian coast https://t.co/ZKYxEmimEa

[Reuters @Reuters]

Macron to outline nuclear vision amid European unease over US alliance https://t.co/tRP2tfK0cU https://t.co/tRP2tfK0cU

[Erin Banco @ErinBanco]

For those who missed it: US intel continues to indicate that Putin has not abandoned his territorial ambitions - something he has stated openly in recent days.

Ambition is different than capability. But it matters in the context of deal making

https://t.co/dKKykomLPk

[John Irish @IrishJReuters]

There was another meeting between e3 ministers and araqchi a couple of hours ago.

[laurence norman @laurnorman]

No other SnapBack meetings planned after Macron - Pezeshkian and this is reportedly @EmmanuelMacron conclusion.

[John Irish @IrishJReuters]

@JasonMBrodsky Actually as far as France @francediplo goes they do this practically everyday. Again today the foreign ministry spokesperson again outlined quite strongly the risks. At the end of the day people make their choices sometimes ignoring the advice.

[Jason Brodsky @JasonMBrodsky]

This is good. European allies should adopt this approach as well. But today I just saw another absurd travel video posted by an American citizen, promoting visits to Iran. It's this category of travel which I have the least sympathy or tolerance for.
https://t.co/r5UscFryVN

[Enrique Mora @enriquemora_]

Those who say Iran must come back to the negotiating table …. what do they mean exactly? Anyway, the nuclear train left the station on June 21, 2025. One-way tickets only.
El día que nació un Irán nuclear https://t.co/jwVX7BcvSB vía @PolExt

[Hümeyra Pamuk @humeyra_pamuk]

More details in the story, with @IrishJReuters https://t.co/Gw6CAQQGZp

[John Irish @IrishJReuters]

@laurnorman @NDeRiviere Experienced hand ;)

[John Irish @IrishJReuters]

#France begins military withdrawal from #Chad, army says - https://t.co/UGfQfxNkm7

[John Irish @IrishJReuters]

#Zelenskiy made case for security guarantees at meeting with #Trump - https://t.co/4E10jtDE13

[Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز (rmomtaz.bsky.social) @RymMomtaz]

Those who’ve never been to Syria, didn’t know it prior to 2011, those who haven’t spent time with Syrians of all socio-economic backgrounds can’t understand how much they have suffered under the Assad family, and yet remained kind, generous, welcoming, funny, polite…