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@ItsMeDricksie

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Joined December 2010

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ItsMeDricksie retweeted

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

@shanaka86

7 months ago

Four weeks ago Saudi Arabia told Iran it would never allow its airspace or territory to be used for attacks. The Crown Prince personally called the Iranian President to deliver that message. It was published by the Saudi Press Agency on January 28. Today the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement that erases every word of that call. The Kingdom “condemns and denounces in the strongest terms the treacherous Iranian aggression.” It calls the missile strikes a “flagrant violation of the sovereignty” of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Jordan. It pledges “full solidarity” with every attacked nation. And then the line that changes everything: Saudi Arabia is “placing all its capabilities to support them in all measures they take.” All its capabilities. All measures. That is not diplomatic language. That is a blank check written in the middle of a war. Whatever the UAE decides to do, Saudi Arabia just said it will support. Whatever Bahrain’s response, Saudi will back it. Whatever Jordan, Qatar, or Kuwait determines is necessary, Riyadh just pledged everything it has. One month ago Saudi Arabia was Iran’s diplomatic shield in the Gulf. The kingdom that brokered the 2023 rapprochement with Tehran. The country that told Washington it would not participate. The monarchy that built its entire post-Vision 2030 foreign policy on balancing between Washington and Tehran without choosing. Iran forced the choice this morning by firing missiles at Riyadh. AFP correspondents confirmed explosions in the Saudi capital. The kingdom that spent three years rebuilding ties with Tehran just had Iranian ballistic missiles in its airspace. The country that told America it would stay neutral just watched its sovereignty violated by the same regime it was trying to protect from American strikes. This is the strategic catastrophe Iran’s leadership failed to game out. Every war-game in Tehran assumed the Gulf states would remain neutral or at worst close their airspace. Every IRGC calculation assumed Saudi Arabia would pressure Washington for restraint. Every diplomatic channel Iran maintained through Oman and Qatar assumed those relationships would survive a military exchange. None of those assumptions survived contact with Iranian missiles landing in sovereign Gulf territory. Iran attacked the UAE. One civilian dead in Abu Dhabi from debris. Intercepts confirmed by the Emirati defense ministry. Iran attacked Qatar, the country that hosted its diplomatic back channels. Intercepted, zero damage, confirmed by Qatar’s Interior Ministry. Iran attacked Kuwait, neutral for thirty years. Missiles dealt with in Kuwaiti airspace per KUNA. Iran attacked Jordan, which shot down two ballistic missiles. And Iran attacked Saudi Arabia, the one country whose neutrality was keeping the entire regional balance from collapsing. The Saudi statement warns of “grave consequences of continuing to violate the sovereignty of nations.” It demands the international community “take all firm measures to confront Iranian violations.” This is the language of a state preparing legal and political justification for what comes next. Iran did not just retaliate against Israel this morning. Iran turned every neutral state in the Gulf into an adversary with a single salvo. The coalition that Washington spent months trying to build and could not assemble, Tehran assembled in one morning by attacking everyone simultaneously. The next 72 hours will be defined by what “all capabilities” and “all measures” means when translated from Arabic diplomatic language into military coordination between six countries that now share a common enemy they did not have yesterday.

shanaka86's tweet photo. Four weeks ago Saudi Arabia told Iran it would never allow its airspace or territory to be used for attacks. The Crown Prince personally called the Iranian President to deliver that message. It was published by the Saudi Press Agency on January 28.

Today the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement that erases every word of that call.

The Kingdom “condemns and denounces in the strongest terms the treacherous Iranian aggression.” It calls the missile strikes a “flagrant violation of the sovereignty” of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Jordan. It pledges “full solidarity” with every attacked nation. And then the line that changes everything: Saudi Arabia is “placing all its capabilities to support them in all measures they take.”

All its capabilities. All measures.

That is not diplomatic language. That is a blank check written in the middle of a war. Whatever the UAE decides to do, Saudi Arabia just said it will support. Whatever Bahrain’s response, Saudi will back it. Whatever Jordan, Qatar, or Kuwait determines is necessary, Riyadh just pledged everything it has.

One month ago Saudi Arabia was Iran’s diplomatic shield in the Gulf. The kingdom that brokered the 2023 rapprochement with Tehran. The country that told Washington it would not participate. The monarchy that built its entire post-Vision 2030 foreign policy on balancing between Washington and Tehran without choosing.

Iran forced the choice this morning by firing missiles at Riyadh.

AFP correspondents confirmed explosions in the Saudi capital. The kingdom that spent three years rebuilding ties with Tehran just had Iranian ballistic missiles in its airspace. The country that told America it would stay neutral just watched its sovereignty violated by the same regime it was trying to protect from American strikes.

This is the strategic catastrophe Iran’s leadership failed to game out. Every war-game in Tehran assumed the Gulf states would remain neutral or at worst close their airspace. Every IRGC calculation assumed Saudi Arabia would pressure Washington for restraint. Every diplomatic channel Iran maintained through Oman and Qatar assumed those relationships would survive a military exchange.

None of those assumptions survived contact with Iranian missiles landing in sovereign Gulf territory.

Iran attacked the UAE. One civilian dead in Abu Dhabi from debris. Intercepts confirmed by the Emirati defense ministry. Iran attacked Qatar, the country that hosted its diplomatic back channels. Intercepted, zero damage, confirmed by Qatar’s Interior Ministry. Iran attacked Kuwait, neutral for thirty years. Missiles dealt with in Kuwaiti airspace per KUNA. Iran attacked Jordan, which shot down two ballistic missiles. And Iran attacked Saudi Arabia, the one country whose neutrality was keeping the entire regional balance from collapsing.

The Saudi statement warns of “grave consequences of continuing to violate the sovereignty of nations.” It demands the international community “take all firm measures to confront Iranian violations.” This is the language of a state preparing legal and political justification for what comes next.

Iran did not just retaliate against Israel this morning. Iran turned every neutral state in the Gulf into an adversary with a single salvo. The coalition that Washington spent months trying to build and could not assemble, Tehran assembled in one morning by attacking everyone simultaneously.

The next 72 hours will be defined by what “all capabilities” and “all measures” means when translated from Arabic diplomatic language into military coordination between six countries that now share a common enemy they did not have yesterday.

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