Morty

Moonlighting as a special situations investor

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

$AFCG pursuing collection post-Justice Grown loan maturity. Public sale notices in NJ and PA have been posted on their website, and they are seeking to appoint a receiver in MA. Third Circuit appellate court ruling could come any day and invalidate the debt. What a battle...

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

$BBXIA predicts it will pay $6.70-$8.94 per share in dividends over the next 4-6 years vs $4 tender price

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

Niche problem maybe but, the solution for Gemini producing garbled financial analysis markdown:

"Please escape all $ symbols in your response."

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

I find a new investment idea every ~2 months on average. Assuming I hold positions a year, it means my average position size needs to be > 15% of my portfolio. As obvious as it sounds, it took me awhile to realize this when I first started investing.

[mispriced @mispricedrisk]

$MAPS for 57m of market cap, you get: 57m of net cash, 65m NCAV, 71m TBV, and an operating business that generated 40m in EBITDA last year

G&D style net-net at an earnings inflection point re: rescheduling

NFA

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

$MAPS forced selling + cheap valuation. What more can you ask for? I'm long

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

Link: https://t.co/zPJQ6cmlU4

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

$TTSH Q1 earnings ->
Bad: revenue and gross margin down YoY
Good: operating cashflow used to pay down debt

No sign of buybacks in the cashflow statement - I got that wrong apparently

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

The share count on otcmarkets appears to update daily. $TTSH share count has declined by 36k over the past 2 days. The company must be buying a substantial amount of the daily volume

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

https://t.co/rh3f3Fak1Z

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

https://t.co/rh3f3Fak1Z

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

$TTSH disclosed 39,606,692 shares outstanding as of 4/14 versus 39,821,741 as of 2/23. Have they been repurchasing shares?

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

@rev_cap It could actually be worse https://t.co/mmqStfbJvT

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

NY state "benefit recapture" mechanism is infuriating. > 100% marginal tax rate at times because the new marginal rate applies to all your income. How is this real?

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

> buy mutual conversion
> buybacks + sale will make you rich
> underperform the indices
> curse conversions
> bank gets taken out
> strategy is amazing
> buy more conversions

Inspired by $FFBW which has done everything right but sell itself

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

Insider purchases resume at $AFCG post earnings

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

Interesting conversation with $AFCG management:
- Plan to grow the book with debt, not equity
- Pipeline predominantly non-cannabis
- Management is in a blackout period and can't buy stock until earnings released
I recommend watching the full video if you have time.

[Pablo Zuanic @420Odysseus]

LIVE WITH Z&A: Fireside Chat with @AFC_GAMMA C-Suite #CannabisFinance #BDC $AFCG #PabloZuanic @420Odysseus #Cannabis https://t.co/zVXGr15Gu6

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

$AFCG wasting no time pivoting from cannabis

[Lycanbull @Lycanbull]

$AFCG AFC Provides $60 Million Senior Secured Credit Facility to Support the Combination of STAT Recovery Services and The Moresby Group
https://t.co/7U7NeOK3xM

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

@Eumoshn3174 I would guess a significant portion of the $51m CECL reserve is for this loan although they don't break it out. I guess your point is it's all baked in?

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

$AFCG bear case: the $78m Justice Grown loan (>20% of book) is in non-accrual with courts blocking foreclosure. 3rd circuit appeal hearing in March with some questions of enforceability of contracts on business violating Federal law. It is messy.

However, the recent BDC conversion may allow for an equity workout ($75m business value) if AFCG prevails in court rather than a forced foreclosure ($6m alleged land value).

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

If you think I'm confused about how tax brackets work...https://t.co/UhZU4GKO5d

[Morty @ItsProbablyLuck]

NY state "benefit recapture" mechanism is infuriating. > 100% marginal tax rate at times because the new marginal rate applies to all your income. How is this real?