Fields

Study Bitcoin. Listen to my Raps below. It’s a simple life… 🌱

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

Much Love to everyone who presaved. Everyone who told a friend, everyone who told they family. My favorite release yet, grateful y’all support me and my dreams. 🙏🏽💜🙌🏼 NOW GO RUN IT UP! 🤣😤💥 #HIPHOP All platforms.

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@MitchellAskew But you can only get that tax deduction if it’s through some type of business or LLC right? Been thinking about this, appreciate any insights!

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@garyvee Alright Gary fine. I’ll book studio time and get back to chasing and achieving my childhood rap dream ….. cuz I’m LIKE THAT 😂🙏🏽👑

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@jameslavish @SpaceDenver Appreciate the glass half full perspective James. Question - I resisted power law for a bit, but now came around to it. Saw SunnyPo post that power law broke October 10 and will remain broken. So, all models broken, even power law. Any opinions/thoughts with the low sentiment?

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@Cole_Walmsley You’re the man, thank you! Math is the math.

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

Well written and worth a read. Bond canary is signing in the coal mine, or might’ve flown out entirely.

Men lie. Women lie. Numbers and math do not, especially with a 40T debt burden & weakening bond demand squeezing every decision.

Which way western man? We’ll find out.

[Cole Walmsley @Cole_Walmsley]

“Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.”

The U.S. Dollar is screwed.

The Treasury must sell ~$2 trillion in new debt this year.

Not to cover new spending. *Just to keep the lights on* and roll over old debt coming due.

That old debt was issued at 1-2%.

It's refinancing at 4.5%+.

Interest expense on the national debt is approaching $1 trillion per year. It's now larger than the entire defense budget. Larger than Medicare.

It's the fastest-growing line item in the federal budget, by far.

Higher rates on rolled-over debt means bigger interest payments.

Bigger interest payments mean bigger deficits.

Bigger deficits mean more debt issuance.

More debt issuance means higher supply of Treasuries.

Higher supply of Treasuries means weaker demand.

Weaker demand means higher yields.

Higher yields means bigger interest payments...

People call it a debt spiral. They're wrong.

It's a death spiral.

The loop feeds itself. Every basis point higher on the 10Y makes next year's refinance worse, which makes everything worse.

The math compounds against the Treasury every single day yields stay here.

The Fed has three doors out. All three open into the same room.

Door 1:

Cut rates

Inflation re-accelerates *on top of* a 6.0% April PPI -- the hottest since 2022 -- and an April CPI that hit a near three-year high. Gasoline onto the fire.

The dollar weakens. Foreign holders of US debt -- a third of the entire market -- watch their real returns get eaten by inflation, then take a second hit on the FX conversion back home. They sell, or demand higher yields to keep buying.

The Fed cuts rates only to watch the market raise them. Their move backfires.

Door 2:

Hold rates.

The $2 trillion in debt rolling over this year keeps refinancing from 1-2% into 4.5%+. Interest expense compounds.

The deficit widens from interest alone, before a single new dollar of spending is approved.

The bond market demands more premium to fund a borrower that looks worse every quarter.

Yields drift higher even though the Fed didn't move.

Door 3:

Hike rates.

Mortgages crack 7%.

Auto delinquencies -- already at 32-year highs -- accelerate.

Regional banks holding underwater Treasuries from the cheap-money era get squeezed like 2023 again. The kicker: the emergency facility that bailed them out last time is closed.

Commercial real estate, sitting on hundreds of billions of debt refinancing in the next two years, gets repriced into a crater. Corporate borrowers refinancing from 2-3% into 7%+ start defaulting.

And the Treasury *still* has to roll $2 trillion in debt over. At an *even higher rate* than before.

The Fed crushes the economy *and* makes its own funding problem worse, in the same move.

All three doors go to the same room:

Impossible-math.

The math always comes due.

In fiat's case, the only historical route is currency debasement.

The Fed eventually monetizes — explicitly through QE, or quietly through yield curve control, or via some politely-named new acronym.

In other words, the purchasing power of the dollar gets destroyed to make the nominal debt serviceable.

That's why they need inflation in the first place. The Fed needs inflation to make the debt math work. You pay the difference. Every dollar you hold loses value to make the equation work.

It's the documented endgame of every fiat regime that has ever existed.

Romans clipped the denarius. The Bank of England suspended gold convertibility. Weimar, Argentina, Zimbabwe, Lebanon, Turkey, Venezuela.

Currency debasement, currency debasement, currency debasement.

Sovereign nations always sacrifice the currency over the bond market. Always. It is the most consistent pattern in 5,000 years of monetary history.

This is the future:

They will print. They will inflate. The dollar will be debased.

Your money will buy less, as it always has. The system will unwind through currency debasement.

Quietly.

Then loudly.

Then suddenly.

The bad news: if you're in the system, you will go down with it.

The good news: you can exit.

The exit strategy is simple.

You *don't* exit through some clever trade that gets you more of the worthless money.

You exit by shifting to a *different* monetary system. One that can't be printed, can't be debased, can't be voted on, and doesn't require trusting the people who built this trap to get you out of it.

You already know what it is.

Fix the money, fix the world.

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@CedYoungelman @_BitcoinMatrix @_BitcoinCenter So good actually 😂 the wise man once said - patience is a virtue, more stacking ability

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@2ToneShawn Outperformed everything except oil. And that’s more of a trade imo, not a long term asset investment like BTC. But what do we know, just some guys staying humble, stacking sats, and easily outperforming “traditional” winners ✊🏽🎯

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@OptimistFields Right after the routine conference dump right? 😂 or do we dare suggest this time is different

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@LawrenceLepard Appreciate your commentary and insights on these developments Larry. Thank you for your work so we can decipher through the BS and the things that are actually possible 🧠

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@CedYoungelman Nothing stops this (fiscal) train, Cedric ✌🏽🎯

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@Rajatsoni Actually such true and hilarious framing. I’ve been wrong by extreme multiples over 15 years, but now that’s it’s around 70k, I got it nailed down. Seeing it clear 😂🥴

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@AdamBLiv @IIICapital Joe and Adam, any continued worries or thoughts on paper BTC and derivatives dampening things more than we think? Is there risk to MSTR vacuuming up this much BTC in your eyes? I like the coin too, also appreciate your insights. ✌🏽

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@Leishman @River BTC priced in gold would be sick

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@RavenNationLIVE We are TOAST bro 😂🤦🏽‍♂️

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@KobeissiLetter @SimonDixonTwitt rare earths have entered the chat?

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@gladstein Pretty sure CBO projects like 64B by 2036? I believe. And we know they’re being as conservative as possible. I think your timeline is probably more accurate, unfortunately haha. We’re prob over 60B by early 2030s. At least there’s a thing called Bitcoin right?✌🏽

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

So wait. Bitcoin isn’t dead? And Saylor wasn’t margin called? I was told both were certainties. Where do I file my complaint? 😂

Easy to dance on downturn graves. Harder to take the time to understand 1st principles of money and digital scarcity.

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@SimplyBitcoin When he says central banks won’t buy it, literally, has he been under a rock with recent news cycles especially from Strategy World? 😂 quantum risks, how’s the banking system deal with that or the rest of the world? He gets the macro but has to study more on what BTC is

[Fields @ItsRealFields]

@jameslavish @CaitlinLong_ What does James & Caitlin know that we’re soon to find out….. 👀😎🧠✌🏽the bid today was interesting to say the least given the situation