Halle 🇩🇪
🇵🇹 Borges @ 3.51 / +251 (bet105) - 0.5u
LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️
I’ve been opposing Aliassime basically every single week. It hasn’t brought much success lately — mostly because I’ve been one match too early — but I still disagree with the market’s rating of him. As I’ve mentioned several times, I’m definitely not a hater of FAA; I just think the market consistently overrates him when he doesn't show enough consistency in his performances week in week out.
Just out of curiosity, I dug a bit deeper and looked at FAA’s outdoor matches over the last ~2.5 seasons where his opponent was priced above 3.00 (+200). There were 54 such matches, and Aliassime won only 34 of them — a shaky 63% win rate considering he was a heavy favorite in every case.
Even more interestingly, blindly opposing Aliassime in those matches would have generated a +34% ROI.
To me, that reinforces the idea that Aliassime has been a very unreliable favorite whenever he’s not playing indoors, and once again I can’t justify him being priced this short.
As for Borges, I think he’s sneakily good on grass — or at least better than his record on the surface suggests. He has also pushed Aliassime in both of their previous meetings with his counterpunching style, which can make life uncomfortable for the Canadian.
Overall, this feels noticeably closer than the market implies.
Kilian Feldbausch +250✅
Kilian Feldbausch +4.5 ALL IN✅
Insider leaks are accurate again (58-2 run). Ofner shows up with a serious knee injury and throws the match in an hour as a huge favorite. I give out life changing info, for free, daily on this page. Follow to get rich.