Izwan Alfarkhan

[이사 dojjunn @dojjunn]

Update kondisi WNI:

Yang ngk paham Finansial :
⇒ Duit 10jt nilainya -7,5% gara2 kurs.

Yang nyoba invest saham :
⇒ 32,5% + 7,5% =-40% Duit 10jt minus -40% gara2 invest di IHSG.

😭😭

[Chart Investor Saham IHSG,USA,Crypto @TradingDiary2]

jadwal gempa IHSG
Jadwal Penting

1. 22 Mei 2026 → FTSE Rebalancing
2. 29 Mei 2026 → Efektif MSCI Rebalancing
3. Juni 2026 → MSCI Market Accessibility Review & Market Classification Review dan FTSE Russell Review indeks saham Indonesia
4. 22 Juni 2026 → FTSE Rebalancing saham HSC

[이사 dojjunn @dojjunn]

Ada dua kondisi WNI:

Yang satu ngk paham Finansial :
⇒ Duit 10jt kehilangan nilainya -5% gara2 kurs.

Sementara itu,

Yang melek finansial nyoba invest saham :
⇒ Duit 10jt minus -25% gara2 invest di IHSG.

Moral of the Story:
"Terima nasib kalo jadi WNI.. 😂😂"

[Pink Bourbon @pinkbourbon8898]

VIX is at 24.58. If you don't know what that means, stop whatever you're doing and read this. This is the one number that tells you whether to stay in the game or get the fuck out and go spend time with your family.

What is VIX?

It's the fear meter. That's it. It looks at S&P 500 options prices and tells you how freaked out the market is about the next 30 days. Not yesterday. Not last week. What people think is COMING.

Every hedge fund, every bank, every options trader on earth, all their panic boiled down into one damn number.

When VIX is at 25, the market expects the S&P 500 to swing about 1.6% every single day. When it hits 30, we're talking 1.9% daily swings. That's not normal. That's "oh shit" territory.

The cheat sheet you need tattooed on your arm:

Below 15 = Nobody gives a shit. Everyone's partying. No one's buying protection. This is when you should be worried because nobody else is.

15 to 20 = Normal. Chill. Nothing to see here.

20 to 25 = Hmm. The smart guys are quietly buying hedges. Something smells off. Pay attention.

25 to 30 = Shit is getting real. Money is flying out of stocks. Protection costs are going through the roof. If you don't have a plan, you're the plan.

Above 30 = Oh fuck. Full panic mode. Everyone is selling everything. Liquidity gone. This is where accounts blow up or fortunes get made. No in between.

We're at 24.58 right now. Read that again.

Why should you give a damn?

1. VIX is the price of fear

Imagine fire insurance. VIX at 15? Insurance is basically free. Nobody thinks the building is burning. VIX at 30? Every fund manager on the planet is SPRINTING to the same counter screaming "GIVE ME PROTECTION." The price goes nuts.

You want to know what fear costs? Look at VIX. That's the bill.

2. VIX up = stocks down. Almost every time.

These two move opposite about 70 to 80% of the time. Stocks take the stairs up. But when they fall? They take the goddamn elevator. VIX shows you that freefall happening live.

When S&P is dropping and VIX is spiking at the same time, that is not a dip to buy. That is the market screaming at you that the rules just changed. When S&P breaks below its 200-day moving average and VIX is above 25? Brother, that is a regime change. The "buy every dip" playbook? Throw it in the trash.

3. VIX always comes back down

Here's the thing nobody tells you. VIX can't stay insane forever. It always drifts back to around 19.5 over time. Always.

COVID March 2020? VIX hit 82.69. Came back down. April 2025 tariff meltdown? VIX hit 52.33. Came back down. Every. Single. Spike. In. History. Came back down.

And here's the beautiful part. Looking at the last 10 times VIX jumped 50% or more in a single month, the S&P 500 was HIGHER 12 months later in 7 out of 10 cases. That means when everyone is losing their minds, selling everything, calling their wife crying, THAT is when the deals show up.

The guys who got rich didn't buy when things were comfortable. They bought when it felt like the world was ending.

4. The market is always too scared

This one is hilarious. The options market almost always overestimates how bad things will be. What they think will happen is almost always worse than what actually happens. This gap is called the volatility risk premium and it has been around for decades.

The market is basically a nervous wreck by design. It's always pricing in more disaster than reality delivers. Smart money knows this and prints money off it.

5. Low VIX is NOT "all clear"

This is the trap that blows people up. VIX at 12, 13, 14? Everyone's relaxed. "Market is great bro, keep buying." Nobody has hedges. Nobody has protection. Everyone's balls deep in growth stocks with no stop loss.

Then BOOM. VIX goes from 14 to 30 in a week and those same people are staring at a 15% drawdown wondering what happened. Long periods of low VIX almost always end ugly. The cheapest time to buy an umbrella is when the sun is out. By the time it's raining, umbrellas cost 10x.

bottom line: the difference between making money and losing money in this market is not about which stock you pick.

It's about knowing when the weather is about to turn. VIX tells you the weather. Learn to read it or get rained on.

Stay sharp. Stay humble. And if VIX is above 30, maybe just close the app and go have dinner with your family. The market will be there tomorrow.

Pink Bourbon | Study Room.

[Reverse: 1999 | Collab Version Coming Jul.23rd @Reverse1999_GL]

Marsha Trailer - The Oath Unending | Reverse: 1999

This knight's story goes on.
Not as expected,
but by choosing her own way to fulfill her unending oath.

Version 3.3 will be available on March 5th (UTC-5).

[Giveaway]
1. Follow @Reverse1999_GL
2. RT trailer before Mar.28th

[TSM 💰 @thesmallmoney]

We're so junam

[Izwan Alfarkhan @IzanScumbag]

@diralarissa Flex your muscle non

[Reverse: 1999 | Collab Version Coming Jul.23rd @Reverse1999_GL]

Moldir Trailer - "The Past, the Present" | Reverse: 1999

Another choice, another trial of the spirit, a return to the right path.

Reverse: 1999 2nd Anniversary Version is now available on PC and Mobile.

[Giveaway]
1. Follow @Reverse1999_GL
2. RT trailer before Oct.26th

[Izwan Alfarkhan @IzanScumbag]

CSM Reze Arc: 😂🥰😲🥺 👍

[Reverse: 1999 | Collab Version Coming Jul.23rd @Reverse1999_GL]

Nautika Trailer - "The Unknown" | Reverse: 1999

Only through exploration can the answer be found. This she knows.

Reverse: 1999 2nd Anniversary Special Version—Paradise Regained will be available on Sept. 19th

[Giveaway]
1. Follow @Reverse1999_GL
2. RT trailer before Sept.30th

[Bara @trickyinvestor]

If revolution makes the IHSG crash and my portfolio drop, I don’t give a fuck. Justice matters more.

[Izwan Alfarkhan @IzanScumbag]

Biarpun lo tuh ga diajak BREN 🫵 not a bad outcome hehe

[Izwan Alfarkhan @IzanScumbag]

Maju sini lo pengumuman MSCI 😠

[Izwan Alfarkhan @IzanScumbag]

@diralarissa

[Izwan Alfarkhan @IzanScumbag]

Maju sini lo pengumuman MSCI 😠

[Izwan Alfarkhan @IzanScumbag]

Yang masih hold CDIA & COIN saat ini

[Izwan Alfarkhan @IzanScumbag]

Suka duka bersama Emiten Pak PP. Pas di exclude MSCI kena sleding 🥲, Pas di include balik MSCI kena sundul hehe 🫡

[Izwan Alfarkhan @IzanScumbag]

@spesiestampan sama ko order ratusan juta lot, beda penempatan aja satu di ara satu lagi di arb wkwkwk

[Izwan Alfarkhan @IzanScumbag]

@Saham_fess GOTO 2022 200jt lot wkwk