🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is fighting like a boxer with a shorter reach, and the first ship inside its range may be flying a South Korean flag
Anthony Aguilar reads the past month as a fighter drawing in an opponent with the longer arm.
Iran absorbs punches at range, burns American interceptors with every exchange, and forces the fleet to close the distance until a warship sits near the strait where a decisive blow is possible.
On what that blow needs to achieve:
"They don't have to sink one"
Hit a flight deck or a tower and the hull leaves the rotation for years, with the Ford's own repair queue already stretching past 18 months.
South Korea, pressured into sending Aegis destroyers, now provides the coalition's most exposed hull, and Iran reportedly tested American ships with cruise missiles this afternoon.
The reach advantage lasts only as long as the interceptors do, and those are counting down faster than the ships can retreat.
@WeTheBrandon
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Raising rates won't bring down oil, and the Gulf's Covid-era debts could turn a closed strait into a banking crisis
Martin Armstrong argued that this inflation is cost-push, oil forced upward by Iran's grip on the strait.
No rate hike touches the price of a barrel, a case he once made to Volcker in person and is making again to a Fed set on repeating the mistake.
The trap he thinks Washington hasn't noticed lies in the Gulf's balance sheets.
The Gulf states borrowed heavily when oil collapsed during Covid, and a strait that stays closed while refineries burn leaves them unable to service that debt.
Sovereign defaults then become a banking crisis, with American banks holding the paper.
His verdict on the two sides:
"They're playing 3-D chess and we're still playing checkers"
Iran only has to survive to win, while America has to keep its bankers and its allies solvent long enough to try.
@ArmstrongEcon@WeTheBrandon
NFP + Unemployment Rate could decide bitcoin:native’s weekend plan
Two U.S. data points. One big reaction.
🇺🇸 NFP: 55–60K expected
🇺🇸 Unemployment: 4.1–4.2% expected
Hot labor market → Fed gets hawkish again.
Weak labor market → rate-cut hopes come back.
And if both surprise, Expect BTC to choose violence.
Robinhood Chain is getting expensive fast.
Users paid $4.45M in gas on Sept. 2, 82× more than 11 days earlier and more than Ethereum, Solana and Tron combined.
But the important part is that transactions only increased ~36%.
The real driver was fees: median base gas jumped from 0.02 to 0.467 gwei, while average execution cost went from <$0.01 to ~$0.32.
To me, this is the first real test of Robinhood Chain’s demand.
Robinhood is currently absorbing swap fees inside its wallet until Sept. 29.
After that, users may start feeling the network economics directly.
If the subsidy disappears, does the activity remain… or was cheap execution doing more work than we thought?
Onchain market is going crazy. We’ve been catching crazy bangers in @WealthGroup
To be on the top 10 leaderboard you need to atlesst have a 91x
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