Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר

Ex-LowerEastSider. Journo, political scientist, Israel-briefer. I now tweet solely on my Substack Notes. Longform essays on my Substack Homepage.

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

My latest essay is about the Jews of London and a primer on UK politics.

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

Are We Israelis Better Off Today?
https://t.co/D05Uzc1A8i

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

Now, this is NYC the way I remember it. Feeling nostalgic.

[Oliya Scootercaster 🛴 @ScooterCasterNY]

WATCH: Chaotic scenes from Knicks fans during Game 4 outside of the CANCELED Knicks Watch Party near Madison Square Garden #knicks #kg4 #nyc #msg

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

My latest essay is about the Jews of London and a primer on UK politics.

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

For those who worshipped the false gods of Trump and Netanyahu.

[מוחמד מג'אדלה محمد مجادلة @mmagadli]

מנסור עבאס מגנה את הפיגוע בכוכב יאיר

[Ahmad Tibi @Ahmad_tibi]

אין זו דרכם של האזרחים הערבים ולא תושבי טייבה. פיגועים ואלימות הם לא דרכנו כי אם מאבק לא אלים הן ציבורי , והן פרלמנטרי .החיים הם ערך עליון. ולכן מוקיעים בבירור את הירי והפיגוע ודורשים חקירה ממצה .
ההסתה על כלל תושבי טייבה והכריזה ברמקולים לתושבי עיר בישראל ,כי ״מי שמוציא את ראשו מקבל כדור בראש״ היא עברינות וגזענות של מי שנתן את ההוראה המסיתה.
מי שאפשר להציף את היישובים הערבים בנשק ,מוצא אותו ונפגע ממנו בישובים היהודים. אקדח שמופיע במערכה הראשונה יורה במערכה השלישית.
דבריהם של סמוטריץ ובן גביר הרוקדים שוב על הדם , הם דברים של מי שטובל ושרץ בידו. הם מעודדים הרג ורצח ונישול בגדה המערבית ומטיפים לאחרים מוסר.
אנחנו מתנגדים להרג פלסטינים וישראלים כאחד. אפשר אחרת, וחייבים אחרת.

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

My latest essay is about the Jews of London and a primer on UK politics.

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

On Day 956 of the October 7th War, wondering what runs through the minds of "conservative" #Diaspora Jews when the two false gods in their pantheon have a falling out?
#Israel #Trump #Netanyahu #Jewish

[ILRedAlert @ILRedAlert]

Rocket Alert [15:01:04] - 1 Alert:

• Confrontation Line — Metulla

Population: 1,600

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

Very worthwhile considering Israel’s experience in Iran and Lebanon.

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

Mandated Holocaust education for non-Jewish people is a waste of time and often counterproductive. I made this case in my book. This week’s London Jewish Chronicle is the latest case in point — why “teaching the Holocaust” — to whom and toward what purpose needs to be massively rethought.

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

In case you are looking for me.
https://t.co/pd2LqN6FRK

[Iran Nuances @IranNuances]

#Iran's IRGC announced it targeted a US airbase at 4:50 AM in direct retaliation for a US aerial attack near Bandar Abbas airport at dawn. The IRGC warned: "This is a serious warning. Aggression will not go unanswered. If repeated, our response will be more decisive."

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

What readers of The Economist book section should know about Crabapple and her anti-Israel pro-Yiddish Bund book. https://t.co/0pLQf3i7n4

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

Read my essay on Crabapple’s Bund book for a Zionist take. https://t.co/xKGPTNCVJ1

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

Molly Crabapple’s impassioned history of a century-old failed political movement briefly made it on to the New York Times bestseller list. Not everyone is happy about it https://t.co/jRSSeIBjzX

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

Israel is worse off now than before Netanyahu pushed Trump for war with Iran. The “most right wing Government” has undermined Israel’s brand globally and failed to parlay military achievement into strategic gain out of ideological and theological myopia. Dan Shapiro laid it all out in his Army Radio interview this morning.

[Dan Shapiro @DanielBShapiro]

With all due caveats about a deal that has not been announced yet, some thoughts:

The US-Iran deal being described in the news is a weak deal, and the net result of this war is significant damage to US strategic interests. That said, since the war was a mistake from the beginning, we can at least be thankful it appears President Trump is moving, belatedly, to end it.

This war was ill-conceived in every respect. There were no clear strategic objectives, and no way to achieve most of the objectives mentioned at an acceptable cost.

After the Strait of Hormuz was closed, and the global economic crisis started to spread, reopening it became the most important objective.

That meant Iran had far greater leverage than we did.

So President Trump faced only terrible options, of his own making. The deal being reported is among the less terrible options he could have chosen. At least he is not choosing to escalate the war, which would cause an even greater global economic crisis.

The least terrible deal would have been a verified opening of the Strait -- and nothing else. Keep full sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, maintain watchfulness and deterrence established in the 12-Day War last June, and try to negotiate a significant rollback of the program and intrusive inspections.

This deal is weaker than that. It reportedly provides $25 billion in unfrozen assets without receiving any concessions on the nuclear program. That money will give the regime a lifeline and help it begin restoring funding to its proxies. And there are no guarantees that Iran will make meaningful concessions on enrichment or HEU once those talks do start.

Those talks, which will likely drag on, may well take place without a credible US military threat backing them up, as the United States labors to recover from all it expended and lost in this campaign and shore up other strategic priorities (IndoPacific) that have been set back, and as US midterm elections approach.

Meanwhile, the deal says nothing about Iran's ballistic missile program or its support for proxies. Yes, US and Israeli strikes degraded, but did not eliminate, many Iranian attack capabilities. But overall, Iran has gained significant leverage for the future by demonstrating it can control the strait, by attacking its neighbors and US bases in the region and causing significant damage, and by taking the United States' and Israel's best punch and surviving with enough ability to project aggression in tact.

It's a bleak day for US strategic interests. But it's better than continuing the war and making it even worse.

Once the dust clears, one thing must not be forgotten. The Iranian people continue to live under a vicious regime. Trump has barely spoken of them in weeks. They deserve help, support, and appropriate non-military external pressures on the regime to give THEM the best chance to change it.

The Administration, which put so much faith in military power to do what it could not, should invest in Iran experts, communicators, Persian language broadcasting, transition planning, diplomacy, and more aimed at supporting the Iranian people in their quest for freedom from tyranny.

That was true in January when the Iranian people were demonstrating for their freedom. And it is still true today, despite this stupid war.

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

At the end of the day, Netanyahu appointed Ben-Gvir. Sa’ar rescued Netanyahu in return for the meaningless job of foreign minister. The Netanyahu government stinks from the head down. Israel doesn’t have a hasbara problem it has a Netanyahu problem.

[Amit Segal @AmitSegal]

Are the participants in this flotilla criminals and enemies of Israel? Yes. Are some of them associated with ISIS? Yes. Should we shed a single tear for them? Absolutely not. Is the international community hypocritical? Of course it is. And were the embassies that summoned Israel’s ambassadors today the truest friends to begin with? No.

But despite all of that, what Itamar Ben-Gvir did is a complete scandal—for three distinct reasons.

First, it brazenly ignores established government policy. A decision was already made to deport the participants. Whether you agree with that directive or not, it is the policy. When a minister goes rogue and takes over an issue like this, it immediately raises the suspicion of a cheap political ploy.

Second, it’s like Israel's notoriously malfunctioning weapon from the Independence War, the Davidka: all noise, no payload. In practice, nothing happens. It is exactly like the push for the death penalty for terrorists—a law that will likely never execute a single person, but guarantees Israel will absorb maximum diplomatic damage and terrible headlines.

Third, it actively sabotages tremendous, ongoing diplomatic efforts. Today, for example, Israel secured a significant achievement when the Czech Republic agreed to veto EU sanctions in Hungary’s place. Why volunteer to make our diplomatic corps' job harder? Just as the situation was naturally defusing, Ben-Gvir dragged the world’s glare right back here.

To the international observer, no one sees that the detainees aren't innocent. They just see a vulgar politician—who already has an international arrest warrant looming over him in The Hague—yelling at captive detainees, drawing grim parallels to the mistreatment of illegal immigrants at the US-Mexico border.

I wish I could say it was an unfortunate mistake. But it was entirely by design.

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

What's a woke to do? A humorous interlude in these fraught times. https://t.co/dH8h4wxubr

[Elliot Jager אליוט ג'גר @JAGERFILE]

I never doubted the depth of Islamist fanaticism or its sociopathic, psychopathic political mores. When we fight this despicable enemy, our challenge is: not to "become them," not to mirror their ways of war.

[Emily Schrader - אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر @emilykschrader]

CNN airs footage showing how Hamas violently beheaded victims on October 7th, 2023.

It’s remarkable that as a result of a slick subversion campaign by Qatar and the Islamic regime in Iran, the left and parts of the right in the West have been hoodwinked into justifying, or outright denying, what Hamas themselves proudly broadcasted.