JB Peter

Deep dives on quality & multibagger stocks. Long-term, high-conviction. Full theses on Substack ↓ Not investment advice.

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

ORIACON is an independent equity-research newsletter — deep dives built from primary filings, not analyst consensus. What every issue gives you (free, for now):
- Long-form deep dives on quality compounders & asymmetric multibaggers
-Forensic teardowns — the red flags most reports miss
-Every thesis with the full reasoning, not just a ticker and a target
-A real portfolio behind every call.
Long-term, high-conviction. A paid tier is coming.

Read the newsletter free 👇
https://t.co/dZPHANomy1

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

$NOVO is getting crushed by the market. But no guidance doesn't mean no results. I know a relative using a GLP-1 product, having lost 10kg in 3 months.

GLP-1 products are life changers. GLP-1 products are society changers. The kind of products you dream of your relatives taking if needed.

And who can produce them? Novo and Eli Lilly have exclusivity until 2031.

(I plan to update my deep dive considering the news and apparent failure of Novo at the CMD yesterday).

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

@Loris_Dalleau Le marché reste très conciliant vis-à-vis des perspectives d'interdiction des réseaux sociaux pour les mineurs et sur le fait que ces futurs abonnés ne franchissent pas le cap plus tard.

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

I just created an 80-page PDF on Investing 101, you can get it for FREE:
-Getting started before you buy anything
-Choosing your first ETF
-Stock analysis
-How to find and track stocks to invest in, with a checklist and a template of watchlist to download.

Get the PDF for free at the link below:
https://t.co/Gr0kEDWpHT

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

"Alphabet says it aims to durably reengineer its cost base, streamline global supplier operations and create investment capacity for core priorities."
Oh-oh. Sounds bad for $GOOG employees...

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

Novo Nordisk signed a licensing deal with Orbis Medicines on Sept 17, up to $1.4 billion in upfront cash, milestones and royalties, plus a direct equity stake in Orbis.

The news is fresh and I can’t wait to get more information about that, the topic is exciting, as it frames the future of Novo.

What Novo actually bought is access to a platform called nGen. Orbis uses generative AI paired with high-throughput chemistry to design macrocycles. "They can hit protein targets cleanly that older drug classes couldn't reach, and the ones Orbis builds are engineered to be taken orally. The oral part matters a lot, as it is easier to scale up and more cost-effective.

Orbis's CEO, Morten Graugaard, framed the deal as proof that the future of oral biologic discovery sits "at the intersection of AI, proprietary experimental macrocycle datasets and world-class automated chemistry." Novo's SVP of Therapeutics Discovery, Brian Vandahl, called the Orbis platform "differentiated."

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

Sometimes, the way to improve your investing skills is not in your investing knowledge, but in your life.

I remember that previously I was stuck in a job I wasn't satisfied with. I checked my portfolio 10+ times a day, and I wanted to check every company available to improve my performance with the dream to be able to fix my job situation. It was implicit, but I lacked short-term options.

Finally, I changed my job. THAT was the good move.

Invest, and invest for the good reasons.

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

Atos Group was certified an SAP Sovereign Cloud Partner Sept 16, cleared for sovereign SAP workloads in Germany, France, the Netherlands and the UK. Atos also launched its own sovereign cloud in July.

Now SAP, Europe's biggest enterprise software vendor, is vouching for it.

The turnaround story gets better, despite the price going south (-53% YTD).

Still Long $ATO.PA

[Bruno @bruno_0879]

Une histoire dans laquelle malheureusement trop de jeunes en bourse vont se reconnaître :

Matis, 22 ans, actionnaire Hermès.
Il achète en 2024 à 2 000 € parce que sur X, tous les influenceurs répètent : « Ça ira forcément à 2 500 € ». Résultat ? Rien du tout. Le cours corrige et fin 2024, l’action est toujours à 2 000 €. 0 gain.

Mais il réécoute les mêmes influenceurs : « C’est une occasion en or pour renforcer ! »
Il renforce aveuglément.

Le titre monte enfin. Matis est aux anges : +30 %, l'action touche 2 700 €. Sauf qu'il ne vend pas. Les influenceurs X : « Les 3 000 € sont inévitables »

La suite de l’histoire, vous la connaissez. C’est toujours le même scénario. Pendant toute la chute qui suit, il « achète le dip » pour faire baisser son PRU, comme ils disent.

Aujourd’hui, il est dépité : -35 % après 2 ans d’investissement. Et il finit par comprendre une réalité : une action individuelle n'est pas un ETF, elle est faite pour être arbitrée et vendue.

Même histoire en boucle sur Pernod, Teleperformance, Essilor, LVMH, Novo Nordisk, etc,etc, etc et se sera toujours pareil dans le futur, malheureusement

Cette histoire est juste un rappel que les réseaux sont magnifiques mais a condition que vous avez la bouteille pour penser par vous même sans jamais vous laisser influencer.
$RMS
Merci

[Will Biddy @WillBiddy_]

$ADBE is offering an opportunity for incredible out-performance in relativity to the broader market moving forward.

The moat is extremely durable despite market sentiment around the business.

This is a perfect opportunity for investors to go against the grain and make a lot of money over the coming decade.

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

There is no edge on congressmen, only for the ones with direction titles in the government.
And he bought Paypal, that's already enough of a bad signal.

[Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker ♟ @pelositracker]

Breaking: Rep. Byron Donalds has a pattern

April 9th, he bought $PYPL down 85% from its highs

PayPal since spiked ~35% due to buyout rumors

And, he just bought Netflix on August 12th

$NFLX is currently down 42% from its all-time high

We'll watch this one from here

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

"Ultimately, nothing should be more important to investors than the ability to sleep soundly at night" ~ Seth Klarman.

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

@investseekers Even if competitors made the accomplishment to produce a drug with similar body loss, they wouldn't produce enough overnight, as they still need to rampup the production. The first moat is the patent, the second is the mass production. Both have expiration date though.

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

How I feel when I buy the dip
https://t.co/O4brK9aIoF

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

Novo and Anthropic are partnering. I strongly suspect it to be just a communication move to increase the stock performance. C’mon guys, if you want to end the stock nightmare, give us a good plan and a good guidance, it’s that simple.

I remember Paypal did it with OpenAI last year, the stock still went nowhere.

(Novo and Anthropic announced a partnership today. Claude's frontier models, including Claude Science, go to work on Novo's R&D to shorten the path from research to market. No dollar figure disclosed. CEO Mike Doustdar: AI can raise productivity and compress that timeline. Same week Foundayo grabbed 30% of new oral obesity patients, Novo answers with pipeline speed, not just share defense.)

There’s no moat in the use of AI, it won’t help much if anybody else is also doing it.

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

If one of your stock is in a downturn, two tips:

-Next time, follow momentum (and don’t catch a falling knife).
-Separate the fundamentals from the multiple. If the multiple goes down without explanation, it might juste rebound because the market changed his mind. Unless you overpaid it (like Hermès with a PE ratio of 50 in 2025).
As a brave shareholder of $NOVO.NE and $ADBE , I’m just like you :)

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

@HatedMoats Both stocks are a good reason to follow momentum, despite fundamentals being ok.

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

Eli Lilly on Monday said it has captured more than 30% of new patients in the U.S. market for oral obesity treatments.
As Novo is catching the rest, it still wins most new patients.

Foundayo 36mg: -12.4% of body loss, Wegowy 25mg: -14% of body loss.
Novo wins on volume (US) and efficacy.

Eli Lilly’s PE ratio: 38, Novo’s : 10.4.
It’s time for a rerating.

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

The first concept to find stocks is to apply a limitation to the multitude of existing stocks (+53,000!). One approach among all those described in the article is to stick to one's circle of competence.

[JB Peter @JBPeterOriacon]

Sept 12, Amodei posted "We Must Pace the Frontier," writing: "We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models." Not a new idea. He was activating an Aug 4 petition already signed by over 1,300 employees across a dozen labs, OpenAI's chief scientist and Google DeepMind's co-founder among them.

Three days before, an Anthropic researcher resigned on Slack. Jacob Coxon, three years training models at OpenAI and Anthropic, wrote that both companies are "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives."

Altman backed "pacing the frontier" within a day. Musk posted "Dario is right." Meta's Alexandr Wang called alignment central to the company's own superintelligence push. Then Trump called the risk claims exaggerated, said whoever wins the race wins outright. Mike Johnson warned regulating now means losing to China.

My take: Behind a genuine safety concern, the giants of this industry want to turn a fiercely competitive sector into an oligopoly, and shut the door on competition so they can keep splitting the pie among themselves. This is the letter of a brilliant businessman.
https://t.co/80zVCpXdDo