With 20+ years of Market experience, Jeff has educated thousands of people how to trade stocks and options. He specializes in selling options & market education
My Bullseye trade idea this week was $ARM. I'm glad I took profits when I did. This have been a very tough stock either on short or long side. I think it is waiting for a real break either above $145 or below $135 for the next move. What do YOU think?
$IWM I think this is a very important chart to keep an eye on. The divergence between rates and the market right now is pretty extreme. One of these is going to correct soon, and I don't think it is going to be interest rates. I think IWM is the biggest loser in the high interest rate war.
Not that it can't close above these levels, but it would be really painful for options sellers. It is bad enough already, but they really need to push this under $715 today at the close. Market might have other ideas though $NVDA
I try to not let outside data cloud my vision of the market. I want to follow price trend, which has clearly been up. But, we need to be sober as traders and realize that this is an exceptional market and this will come to an end at some point. $SPY $QQQ $VIX $NVDA
$HOLO Dang. Look at that beautiful chart. I can't believe that is just one day. Look at the Blackbox buy signal @ $2 in premarket too! You don't see too many that are that clean all day long. No pullbacks at all and tons of liquidity. This might be one of those that run $100+ soon
$QQQ $AAPL $SPY I find the CTA buying / selling projections pretty interesting lately. This was spot on in Sept as it predicted the selloff, then in Nov as we saw funds dogpile back into stocks. Now, we have only slight buying on a rally, but HUGE selling possible on a declining market over Feb. You know the market always like to do the most painful thing possible....
The market loves finding places of "max pain," as you see here in VIX short calls. if VIX pops > 15 again, we could see a big squeeze and sellers panic and buy VIX, forcing markets lower. Keep a close eye on that level for VIX. We were flirting with it today $SPY $UVXY $VIX
As a bull, I sure don't like seeing charts like this. Asset managers are the most net long they have been in over a decade now. Are they going to keep buying more? $SPY $VIX $QQQ
🚨Container shipping rates skyrocket 173%
Carriers divert +$200 billion in trade from the Red Sea due to Houthi militant threats
Shipping a 40-foot container from Asia to northern Europe now costs over $4,000, up +173%
Supply-chain issues back...
Will inflation re-accelerate?
(Important to note: cost of shipping from Asia to northern Europe AND to Mediterranean cost 2x more than the levels in January 2019, but are still well below their peaks during pandemic)
The presumptive Republican nominee is on the record saying he "beat the hell out of" Powell, and that he was "not a big fan" and flat out "didn't like him."
These "round trip" days, where we go from opening red... to green... then back to where started (and below!) are how tops get set in place. This is a good example.
This is the predicament the Fed has right now. Either
1) They don't cut rates, and the economy could derail and the stock market implodes. Or
2) They cut rates, inflation comes roaring back and won't go away so easily.
I keep seeing this chart passed around this weekend saying "every time the Fed cuts rates the market tanks. Every time." Folks, "every time" is exactly TWO data points. Let's not fall into scare tactics so easily. $SPY $QQQ