Jonathan Ruhe

@JINSAdc Fellow for American Strategy. Usual caveats, all opinions my own.

[Jonathan Ruhe @JCB_Ruhe]

"Clarity through breadth." America will never solve the Iran nuclear problem, diplomatically or militarily, without a comprehensive view of Iran's ability to produce fissile material and build a bomb. My new JINSA report laying out this issue in detail:

https://t.co/StfvJzA1fQ

[Ari Cicurel @AriCicurel]

When @SecWar testified the Iran war cost $37.5 billion, he priced replacing the munitions the US used. As @JCB_Ruhe and I argue in our new @jinsadc report, replenishment is not enough. The US must build a larger arsenal and sustain manufacturing, not just replenish after crises.

[The Dispatch @thedispatch]

“But the United States cannot escape its doom loop until it stops seeking a grand bargain with Iran.” | Johnathan Ruhe
https://t.co/sA0tyNPpg9

[Jonathan Ruhe @JCB_Ruhe]

A decade later, Obama’s Iran nuclear deal looms large over everything Trump tries to do, though he would be wise to end his own pursuit of a grand bargain with Tehran. My latest in @thedispatch https://t.co/WNC5UiQ933

[JINSA @jinsadc]

Iran's attacks on shipping were designed to demonstrate its control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The strategy “reflects longstanding Iranian practice, where it tries to gauge and erode US resolve” said @JCB_Ruhe via @TimesofIsrael https://t.co/UcLlnhwmF2

[Jonathan Ruhe @JCB_Ruhe]

The U.S.-Iran MOU commits to uphold Iran's "nuclear status quo" pending a final agreement. But this raises the risks of a bad deal, as we know dangerously little about the status of Iran's enrichment and bombmaking programs. My new JINSA Insight explains: https://t.co/5sjVMjUSCW

[JINSA @jinsadc]

The details of a deal between Iran and the United States is unclear.

What is clear, is that Iran has violated EVERY nuclear agreement they've signed on to.

@BlaiseMisztal explains to @MarkieMartin @NewsNation

[JINSA @jinsadc]

A formal U.S.-Iran 🇺🇸🇮🇷 deal may shift tensions temporarily from hot to cold, but this will only exacerbate and prolong a war that truly ends only once the Islamic Republic disappears.

Read @JCB_Ruhe latest for @thedispatch https://t.co/abyNXEDEx5

[Jonathan Ruhe @JCB_Ruhe]

Trump wants a better Iran deal than Obama's, but Tehran won't play ball. My new piece in @thedispatch explains how the downsides of a grand bargain are even greater today than in 2015, and offers an alternative approach focused on regime collapse: https://t.co/LlfHtXtmor

[JINSA @jinsadc]

JINSA's @JCB_Ruhe warns @MatthewShea__ that the proposed U.S.-Saudi 🇺🇸🇸🇦 civil nuclear pact could undermine U.S.-UAE 🇺🇸🇦🇪 ties and “threaten the global nonproliferation regime and raise the risks of a regional proliferation cascade.”

via @jewishinsider https://t.co/Fw9wNZx9Mg

[JINSA @jinsadc]

In response to media reports on the details of a near-final 60-day U.S.-Iran MOU, JINSA President and CEO @MichaelMakovsky encourages President Trump to reject it and issued the following statement:

If the reported details of a proposed U.S.-Iran MOU are broadly accurate, it would represent a loss of American nerve and damaging strategic reversal in recent American policy, abandoning many of President Trump’s prior redlines, undercutting many of the tremendous achievements of the military campaign, and undermining U.S. credibility.

I hope President Trump recognizes the enormous dangers posed by this reported MOU and rejects this disastrous arrangement. He should reverse course and restore American credibility by resuming military action that further weakens Iran’s conventional military and nuclear capabilities, ensuring the freedom of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz, maintains economic pressure on the Tehran regime, and supporting Iranians seeking to bring about the regime’s collapse, which is the ultimate strategic prize for the United States.

The U.S.-Israeli military campaign made major advances in curbing Iran’s ability to project power and weakening the regime, for which both countries’ militaries and political leaders are to be commended. However, rather than degrading Iran further, this deal would strengthen and enrich it, thereby prolonging its survival.

Comparisons to President Barack Obama’s 2015 JCPOA would be immediate and deserved. The United States would again be financially rewarding the Tehran regime to negotiate on its nuclear program while not addressing Iran’s missile capabilities or its aggressive regional activities.

In some respects, this agreement is worse than the JCPOA, since the United States would be relinquishing leverage accumulated through 38 days of direct military confrontation, strategic isolation, maritime pressure, and visible deterioration of Iran’s internal and regional position.

If Iran would not agree to acceptable American terms on its nuclear program during a ceasefire — while facing a blockade, economic strangulation, internal instability, and the credible prospect of renewed severe U.S.-Israeli military operations — there is no serious reason to believe lifting that pressure will produce a better outcome.

Without the complete, permanent, and verifiable dismantlement of Iran’s entire nuclear program, the regime’s pathway back to nuclear weapons capability is preserved and will restart, no later than after President Trump leaves office.

The Iranian regime and its supporters will rightly see this agreement as a victory over the United States, emerging not only intact but with new life thanks to the unfreezing of assets, the resumption of significant oil sales (mostly to China), and effective control over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump would also be abandoning the Iranian population, with whom he has repeatedly expressed solidarity and support, by rescuing this brutal and corrupt regime from collapse.

It betrays Israel, our full-fledged partner in the war, which reportedly opposes this deal and was given little say in it. Israel will undoubtedly need to conduct another military action against Iran at some point to undo the damage from this deal. Israel also cannot be expected to adhere to any Iranian veto over Lebanon, and will be compelled to maintain its military action against Iran’s terrorist proxy Hezbollah that continues to threaten Israel’s northern towns.

The MOU also leaves exposed our Gulf Arab allies to an emboldened Iran as America retreats from the region.

The lesson for the rest of the world will be that America can be coerced through brinkmanship, defiance, and threats to maritime commerce and energy markets. China will take note and is a clear winner, and Taiwan a loser.

There should be no memorandum of understanding, interim deal, or partial arrangement with the Tehran regime, as it will not be worth the paper it is written on.
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[Jonathan Ruhe @JCB_Ruhe]

My prewar @jinsadc report with @AriCicurel gives context for recent NYT/WaPo exposés on the full extent of damage to U.S. bases. TL;DR: Iran can still impose major costs with short-range precision strikes, and will adapt its tactics for the next round:

https://t.co/PG9daeh3Hv

[Efrat Lachter @EfratLachter]

As President Donald Trump signals progress toward a possible agreement with Iran, Israeli officials and analysts are outlining what Jerusalem believes any deal must include to prevent Tehran from rebuilding its military and regional power. our story on @FoxNews with @jinsadc @Nadav_Eyal @AvnerGolov @MIND_ISRAEL

[Fox News World @FNCGlobalNews]

REDLINES DRAWN: Israel experts lay out four non-negotiable conditions for any Iran deal. Report by @EfratLachter https://t.co/7pdrg4j25A

[Jonathan Ruhe @JCB_Ruhe]

The good news: America and Israel have similar redlines on Iran. The bad news: Iran exploits talks to erode those redlines, sideline military pressure, and create daylight between 🇺🇸 and 🇮🇱, as I tell @EfratLachter at @FoxNewsDigital: https://t.co/F0Z9aiqSmu

[JINSA @jinsadc]

Project Freedom won’t alleviate commercial shippers' concerns immediately, says @JCB_Ruhe. They're risk-averse b/c a single mine or drone could result in crew casualties & take ships offline for months.

“This puts a heavy burden of proof on the US to show that the Strait is safe to transit.” via @BreakingDefense
https://t.co/qmjlwErmEy

[Jonathan Ruhe @JCB_Ruhe]

Trump's gambit to reopen Hormuz will take time, and lots of risk, to succeed. Ships will only transit the Strait if they no longer fear IRGC small boats, drones, and mines -- a tall order entailing lots of warships, air support, ISR, and minesweepers:
https://t.co/Wi33JYAU94

[Fox News World @FNCGlobalNews]

IRAN ON NOTICE: Nuclear experts back Trump's push for permanent ban on Iran's enrichment program, warning retained infrastructure lets regime off the hook, cautioning Iran will resume atomic weapons path. https://t.co/ZLubN9tLO9

[Benjamin Weinthal @BenWeinthal]

Nuclear Experts Warn Iran’s ‘Uranium Right’ Is a Myth, Say Trump @realDonaldTrump Is Right to Hold Firm. My latest @FNCGlobalNews with comments @StrickerNonpro @jinsadc's Jonathan Ruhe.
https://t.co/PTzzyMi5wF

[JINSA @jinsadc]

In their latest piece, @JCBRuhe & @TobinYoni argue that President Trump should expand the 🇺🇸⚓️U.S. blockade to include 🇮🇷 Iran’s military, not just its exports:

The U.S. is right to deny the regime vital revenues. But blocking its military supply lines, and operating against Iran's own blockade, are just as important.

With reportedly over a dozen warships in the area, U.S. forces can up the pressure in a range of ways. Blockading energy shipments is just one.