Johannes Heimeldinger

Value Investor. I am looking for new ideas. Owner Operators, Familiy-owned companies, Net-Net stocks, high RoA companies at reasonable prices, NCAV.

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Lumber

Lumber falls to lowest price this year 📉 📉

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Wow look at some of these Consumer Discretionary drawdowns (from 52wk high) @finviz_com

[Hedge Fund Clips @HedgeFundClips]

Buffett's hit rate: 3-4%. Of 300-400 Berkshire deals, 12 made the whole thing.

Mohnish Pabrai, Founder of Pabrai Funds, explains:

"Most of the acquisitions Warren did did not work well for Berkshire. Let that sink in."

"Warren said 12 ideas over 58 years led to the creation of Berkshire."

"He's made 300 to 400 investments in six decades. It's a 3 or 4% hit rate."

"Go back 90 years in the US market — about 4% of businesses delivered all the returns."

"The other 96% barely matched bonds or inflation."

"What happened in the bigger market and inside Berkshire have been very similar in percentages."

"It's humbling to know that most of the time when we act, the odds are stacked against us."

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

3/3

There's a strong relationship between yield and FUTURE returns. The higher the yield, the better the return that follows. R-squared is 0.61 back to 1800 and 0.85 since 1914.

Ten years ago, you were buying a 2% yield. Today it's 5.2%.

History says that's worth roughly 5% a year over the next decade. Not more -2%.

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

2/3

Why so bad? You buy a bond for its yield. Ten years ago, the long Treasury paid 2%. That was the ceiling, and then rates rose (price losses), taking even that away.

Some perspective: in 223 years, a negative 10-year return has happened in 25 months. 24 of them are right now. The only other was Dec 1959, at -0.08%.

This wasn't a normal bad decade. It was QE and zero rates.

Yields lead returns by almost exactly 10 years, and now "we have a yield to observe again."
h/t @grantspub and @evan_lorenz

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/3

Here's the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara. (BofA's starts in 1936.)

The past 10 years through this summer have been the worst since 1803.

Read that carefully.

Bonds WERE the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next.

[marc friedrich @marcfriedrich]

Staatsversagen

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Eggs

Egg Prices have collapsed 68% since the end of July 📉 🥚

[Smirkley @Smirkley]

Immigrant students score below natives in 37 of 52 countries.

Finland has a gap of -79 points, Germany -74.

The Gulf: UAE +87, Qatar +77.

US is absent as PISA recorded immigrant status for only 55% of students.

[Zacki @FrankfurtZack]

Deutsche ohne Migra - Hintergrund absolute Top -Scorer im Pisa - Europavergleich.

Auch deutlich besser als die egaltären nordischen Ländern.

Das frühe aussortieren ist brutal, hat aber Vorteile.

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

If you can’t get upside in your DCF model. Just lower the discount rate by a few percentage points. Works every time.

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Lumber

Lumber falls to its lowest price of the year and is approaching a bear market after plunging 17% from July's high 📉 📉

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Global bond markets are on fire. Every day yields rise in one place or another. Biggest mover today is Japan, where 10y10y forward (red) is up 10 bps. That spills over to everywhere else and pushes yields up globally. We're witnessing a global sell-off...
https://t.co/GRXneqxjUD

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

This $WY looks like another dirt cheap timber REIT. Been doing a deep dive on the entire sector. Getting slammed from higher yields and home building slowing down. But these are incredible inflation assets and irreplaceable. It’s something I would hold as a cash alternative. Because you can’t trust cash at this point in the credit cycle. Own cheap timber.

[Steven Wood @GWInvestors]

Couldn't think of a better day to post this piece I have been working on... https://t.co/ctX2DnkBvi

[MastersInvest.com @mastersinvest]

“Peter [Kaufman] is the ultimate win/win operator. The last person I want to compete with in life is Peter. He takes just such good care of the customers. I’ve never heard any complaint from Peter’s customers except that his price is high. Everything else about the business is perfect.”

- Charlie Munger

“The three best operating companies I’m aware of are Costco, Kiewit and Glenair. There is nothing remarkable about the product or field for any of these. But there is something remarkable about the culture of all three.”

- Charlie Munger

Had the privilege to spend half the day with Peter touring Glenair facilities, meeting team members and hearing his business and life philosophy. A true gentleman and a phenomenal business.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

The only constant is change.

Heraclitus already said this 2,500 years ago.

Or did you really think that Big Tech would last forever?

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: China

Chinese Stocks are approaching their worst underperformance relative to the S&P 500 in history 📉 📉

[Civixplorer @Civixplorer]

Cities in the year 1700 with over 100,000 people.

[HRouge @hareng_rouge]

UK fund manager magic touch award winner: Terry Smith 🥂🎉