JJ

Trading equities, ETFs, bonds.
TradingView script publisher.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

@saxena_puru Actually, I’m still heavily net short as I strongly believe Big Recession to come. I’m with you. Enjoy DCB but sell any short-lived pop. This is the easiest strategy.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

@gilmoreport Blue Origin is more like the real deal, but VG’s travel is also great experience for us. Wanna ride one of them in the future.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

@devlpr Definitely we could’ve topped. You could be right.
Daily stochastics suggests we’re in 4th pullback and if so, this flagging above 13MA tends to be powerful. If you’re bear, be careful. (I’ve lost a lot by shorting Natgas rally before…Widowmaker for some reason.)

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#NATGAS #NG_F COT

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Copper #HG_F COT
Chart was not correct...
Copper is holding Orange TL beautifully. (Very technical animal)
COT positioning (MMs adding long, Prod/Users cutting short) confirms bullish pressure so I expect the last resistance (50MA) would be broken out next week. Bullish.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Copper #HG_F COT
Not looking great. As long as Prod/Users cutting short, Money Managers cutting long, price will drop or consolidation continues longer.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Copper #HG_F COT
Copper is holding Orange TL beautifully. (Very technical animal)
COT positioning (MMs adding long, Prod/Users cutting short) confirms bullish pressure so I expect the last resistance (50MA) would be broken out next week. Bullish. $FCX is also basing.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

$SILJ #SI_F #Silver
Supplement to Silver analysis.
$SILJ weekly is still holding 50MA $14.87 by 2 cents! This save is very important for Silver as some bear market is led by miners breakdown.
COT = bullish, $SILJ = bullish. Basing here for some time is good.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

$SILJ weekly need to hold 50MA, or lower BB at $13.97 next.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#LUMBER #LBS_F COT
Orange TL is a strong base here.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#LUMBER #LBS_F COT
Recent massive rally of lumber were led by Commercials(Producers/Users) and not by Managed Money. Users have been buying the rally, so how it looks far above 50MA, 200MA, next dips will be bought by them and will hit higher high > $1700 in the next rally.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#LUMBER #LBS_F COT
Finally lumber found orange TL support to relief a while. Managed Money adding long so, DCB could bring lumber back up to 200MA($919), then consolidation will follow.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#SUGAR #SB_F COT
Sugar is holding 50MA so basically bullish but COT positioning flips again and again. No trend = Stay away.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#SUGAR #SB_F COT

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#SUGAR #SB_F COT
Commercials/Managed Money positions did not change last week however, Sugar broke out of 13MA/20MA/50MA and hitting $18.25(May high). Trend could have rolled over and rally could continue.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Palladium #PA_F COT
Bullish wave continues.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Palladium #PA_F COT
This could be it.
Commercials favors palladium now. Reopening demand(synchronizing with XLI Industrials) is increasing now.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Palladium #PA_F COT
After false breakdown below pink TL, palladium bounced back to $2817. Managed Money started adding long, Prod/Users started cutting short, positive for Palladium. As pink ascending support held, $3030(purple TL) is the target.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#NATGAS #NG_F COT
COT trend is still very bullish. (MMs and Non-Repos are adding so much long on this rally.) On the contrary, Other-Repos are shortest in three years. Why are they against the trend? Retails win this time?
Fight will continue till one side go BANKRUPT...

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#NATGAS #NG_F COT
Natgas holds $3.72 volume zone. If $3.72 resistance is broken, $3.90 is next, then higher.
Managed Money added long massively last week so I expect more squeeze to come. (Acceleration 👆)

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Coffee #KC_F COT
Managed Money cut long again. (Both Prod/Users, MMs has been flipping again and again. This 50MA ($151) area is key support/resistance)
It seems to be selloff to the $142 support is first imo. If 50MA fails again, then direct drop to $142. Key support.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Coffee #KC_F COT
Commercials are heavily shorting coffee, technicals looks attractive as it is trying to breakout but shortable soon IMO.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Coffee #KC_F COT
Managed Money added back long again while Prod/Users started adding short, so Coffee could rise as well as other soft commodities. (Now funds seems to be buying softs.)

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#COCOA #CC_F COT
Hitting lower blue TL $2268 and bounced hard on Friday.
Prod/Users are buying hard and Managed Money is now big net short.
Prod/Users are 48% short which is highest since 2019 Sep.
Positions not yet rolling over BUT this is an early trade alert. Bullish.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#COCOA #CC_F COT report suggests commercials will sell into ST strength. Producers/Users still hold so much short position (66% short, 34% long)
Recent bounce could soon revert to downside. (Technicals look attractive though)

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#COCOA #CC_F COT
Cocoa is playing ping-pong between green TL and blue TL. Managed Money is finally net-short and still adding short so I expect Cocoa would hit blue TL or orange TL. At that time Prod/Users would be close to neutral, so big opportunity to start long. Patience.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#SILVER #SI_F COT
Managed Money keeps adding long and Prod/Users adding short. This looks steady bullish action except that Silver is still below pink TL, 50MA, 20MA, 13MA. (Top heavy.)
I expect breakout and above $26.99 is the safe long entry. (Could fail to breakout.)

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

$SI_F Silver daily is losing momentum after +$2 move in a week. Weekly MACD/Stochs are still bullish. Now silver cleared daily/weekly/monthly 13MA/50MA/200MA resistance. Still bullish as long as $16.975 held.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#SILVER #SI_F COT
Managed Money added long again. Silver is still below pink TL however COT suggests this TL could be retaken.
Good news is Non-Repos are cutting long -30% in 5 weeks. When weak hands are losing confidence, it's time to build a position. (Trigger: Above $26.81)

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#GOLD #GC_F COT
$1790 resisntance(blue dot line) was broken and now Gold is pressuring purple TL to the upside. Managed money added net-long so I expect breakout next week to the new Orange TL. $1860.
Non-Repos continuing cutting long is also a good news.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#GOLD #GC_F COT
Still in good down trend.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#GOLD #GC_F COT
Blue TL support added.
Any rejection at $1790/$1810 would pullback Gold to $1750 again. Big concern is Non-Reportables are still holding big long position, Gold need to wipeout weak longs first then up imo. (if blue TL holds as support.)

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Wheat #ZW_F COT
Tricky.
Both Managed Money and Commercials' positions were flat however finally wheat failed the 10-months Orange TL support and 200MA. These supports have been strong therefore this selloff is serious. Next support = $593.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Wheat #ZW_F COT
Wheat B wave could have been completed. Next c wave target is 200MA $632.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Wheat #ZW_F COT
Wheat has completed ABC correction then, Managed Money started adding long after 7 weeks of position cut.
Same as other soft commodities, Wheat looks like a good long opportunity now.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Soybeans #ZS_F COT
Soybeans broke 200MA twice but both are bought up. Managed Money stopped cutting long so basing here or next rally to come.
False breakdown, double bottom are usually bullish signal so this could be a good long entry oppt.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Soybeans #ZS_F COT

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Soybeans #ZS_F COT
Unlike other softs, Managed Money cut long on Soybeans which was extremely overbought up to $1667 and need a big pullback.
For me this is just a DCB back to 50MA, next move is the key. Breakout = buy, Rejection = sell.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Corn #ZC_F COT
200MA finally failed.
Two months of selling still continues as Managed Money's net-long position is roughly halved in these two months. Prod/Users long ratio is 34% and this is not yet enough to bottom out. Bearish.
Dropping much faster than expectation.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Corn #ZC_F COT

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Corn #ZC_F COT
Corn failed orange bull TL support then dropped back to 200MA($548). After DCB, I expect lower to 200MA again. Prod/Users/Managed Money positions were flat but Sharp OI drop suggests lots of positions were wiped out last week. Wait till dust settles.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#USDollar #DX_F #COT
Commercials/Managed Money both added short and $DXY followed the position. Straight rally scenario seems to be negated and now I expect choppy sideway move.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#USDollar #DX_F COT

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#USDollar #DX_F #COT
USD did not pullback rather rallied hard above key 200MA support.
COT on overall commodities market(incl. metals, softs) suggests $DXY should drop/commodities up, but DXY itself does not seem to be weak at all. Dollar strength will drag commodities...

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#CL_F #Oil COT
Crude oil managed to recapture Orange TL so the dip was a false breakdown so far. (Technicals = bullish)
But, Managed Money rapidly cutting long while Prod/Users cutting short => indicates more downside pressure to come. COT suggests down.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

Crude Oil COT
Money Managers are still adding long and their position is not at extreme level.
Non Reportable cut long two weeks in a row. If profit taking is over, oil should regain momentum.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#CL_F #Oil COT
Managed Money started cutting long after big rally. $75-$76 zones were 2018 double top so we will face headwind soon.
No weakness is observed yet but we need to be cautious.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Cotton #CT_F COT
This is a breakout of triangle however Managed Money just started cutting long so it is a bit concerning in the ST.
There is more rooms to add long but keep an eye on the pink TL support. Slow grinding up is the main scenario.

[JJ @JJTradeReport]

#Cotton #CT_F COT
Cotton looks it wants to breakout above purple TL then trying to target $92. Managed Money are building up long 4 weeks in a row, and the price is coiling into triangle edge.