So, I've worked in the beef industry. I have a fairly detailed knowledge of beef markets, the supply chain, parasites and parasiticides, etc. Suffice it to say, this is a nightmare scenario, but one we've known was coming since at least 2022.
New World Screwworm was eradicated from North and Central America in the mid-90's. The US gov't (APHIS) funded a program of screwworm drops, where they bred sterile males so that extant populations couldn't reproduce and move northwards. But in 2022 NWS jumped the Darien gap and started moving northwards once again. It's most likely that they came undetected on livestock brought alongside migrants fleeing political instability in South and Central America. Elon Musk/DOGE, of course, cut several monitoring programs that would have detected this exact scenario. The screwworm drops are still funded, but the monitoring programs are what have been cut - a stupid move if there ever was one.
A serious Central/South America policy would have worked hand-in-hand with CA/SA governments to help contain this, but we've never had a serious policy towards South America, not during the Biden years, and especially not under Trump. The USDA broke ground on a sterile screwworm facility in Texas... last month. I worry it's too little, too late.
Screwworm is so dangerous because, unlike other fly larvae, they lay eggs and feed on living flesh. So something like a small scratch (or even bug bite) can quickly becomes infested, and the larvae will burrow into the flesh, growing the wound and attracting more screwworm. They don't only parasitize cattle, but will also feed on wildlife, domestic pets, even humans. Since they have detected screwworms in domesticated cattle right now, it's likely that there is a wild reservoir as well. We can quarantine herds and pets, but we can't quarantine deer and armadillos. They will move, and so will the NWS.
Under normal circumstances, cattle are moved around - a lot. Calves will be sent to stockers through their adolescence, then shipped to feedlots for finishing. A lot of calving operations (like 70%) are small, and small-time producers don't always catch parasite infestations. Cattle moved in-state don't require a certificate of veterinary inspection, so it's easy for an infested animal to be moved without being noticed. Animals crossing state lines do need a CVI, but Texas has such an enormous cattle population (something like 13 million head) that as goes Texas, so goes the nation.
Fortunately, we have a lot of drugs that treat NWS. The FDA has issued several emergency use authorizations in the last year or so. But every input raises the price of beef, and treatment only makes a difference if producers catch an infestation early. If an infestation spreads unnoticed on a large feedlot, it can hit hard, both in terms of cattle that have to be killed, and treatments that then have to be deployed. Producers will spend days at a time running cattle through the chute, inspecting them and applying parasiticides. It costs a lot of money, which is then passed on to the consumer.
What does that mean for you? Beef is a commodity, and just because there's no NWS up here in Illinois doesn't mean that prices won't skyrocket - and they will skyrocket. US herd size is already at record lows, and this will result in culls. Consumer prices also run 18-24 months behind, which means that shocks to the supply chain now are still going to be felt by consumers in 2028.
It's hard to say if our government will be able to muster an effective response - though I don't trust our current administration, which can't even throw a 250th anniversary party, to be able to deal with an ecological issue of this magnitude. It doesn't help that our current USDA secretary is a lawyer and think-tank creature. I don't much trust the state government of Texas either. The industry has also taken the workforce of large animal veterinarians for granted - a monopoly/market power issue that I just can't get in to here.
For me, it comes back to our federal government having an incoherent policy on Central and South America. We knew what was coming, we know what's going to happen, but we cut the program meant to prevent this scenario. Instead of taking those countries seriously as partners, the government has been stupid and domineering.
Here's the kicker: this is what the industry voted for. They might scream, they might get bailed out, but all that means is that you, the consumer, are going to be paying more for beef, plus whatever bailout gets shoveled their way. Until the industry accepts that they are part of a larger system; that they cannot eternally privatize the gains and publicize the losses of beef production; that they need to consider sustainability and stewardship in the management of their operations, this is only going to keep happening. Eventually, they may find that there is very little goodwill for them among the public, and people will decide that a Brazilian ribeye tastes just as good as one from Texas.
So let me get this straight.
Jake Tapper is focused on attacking my Mom.
Jared and Ivanka are building a private island paradise on Albanian protected land.
Don Jr married the daughter of Epstein’s banker, and a startup his fund backs just got a record $620M Pentagon loan.
Eric is taking an Israeli drone company public for $1.5B in the middle of a war with Iran that nobody wanted.
And I know: “But what about your paintings, Hunter?”
Please.
I truly wish @PBS would hire the team that @60Minutes has fired, including those-soon-to-leave Scott Pelley etc. and create their own version of this iconic program. Ratings would be huge.
Good will would be even larger.
🚨🚨🚨
Bombshell: The Browns are finalizing a trade that will send two-time Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams, per @rapsheet, @TomPelissero and me.
In exchange for Garrett, the Rams are expected to send Pro-Bowl edge Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick and other draft-pick compensation still being negotiated to the Browns.
@DrewDavenportFF Not defending anything, I hope Jacobs gets a fair punishment and exit from the league if all is tru
Schefter did peddle having seen a Dez video that no one ever saw and still has never came to light, so he does kind of have a track record with "I've seen this thing and it's bad"
Donald Trump: " One of the worst deals ever made by Barack Hussein Obama. Remember when they sent Boeing 757s over there loaded with cash, hundreds of millions... Sent it to Iran almost as ransom. That's not gonna happen with Trump…Can you imagine if I did that?”
🚨 Trump has pardoned Trevor Milton, a man convicted of stealing $695 million from investors.
This pardon came after Milton donated nearly $1 million to Trump's PAC.
The US Justice Department is seeking the names, addresses, and banking information of Reddit and X users, ratcheting up efforts to identify social media critics of government deportation efforts. https://t.co/7juwC4RkJo
Can't think of a greater indictment of our modern media than their willingness to signal boost GOP claims of government censorship b/c the Biden Admin *asked* FB to take down COVID conspiracy posts but have jack fucking shit to say about the below
The Trump admin reportedly pressured the Bureau of Engraving and Printing to design a $250 bill featuring Trump's face.
The Director of the Printing Bureau was then removed from her role after raising concerns that federal law prohibits money from featuring living people.
@JoeConchaTV Stop being such a pussy. Trump has been using his *personal account* to send off the most vile, morally repugnant attacks against his political opponents and their family members. For years. So stop.
President Trump is the ONLY one who could have gotten Iran — the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism — to the negotiating table.
We are greatly encouraged to learn a PEACE DEAL in Iran is underway — and look forward to learning more about the specifics.
Under President Trump’s leadership, our nation is stronger, more respected on the global stage, and safer than ever before.