🏈🔥 A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Ladder
The words of Brown’s teammate Pop Douglas on Wednesday:
“I can’t wait. I know it’s due.”
🪜 70+ Receiving Yards (-106, 1u)
🪜 90+ Receiving Yards (+198, 0.5u)
🪜 100+ Receiving Yards (+280, 0.25u)
Here’s why Brown can realize his childhood dreams on TNF 👇
• The matchup only points one way 🔥
There’s one word to describe the back of the Bears defense - unreliable. Here’s how it ranks vs WRs this season:
• #30 vs receiving yards
• #32 vs yards per reception
• #30 vs ADOT (average depth of target)
• #24 vs yards after carry per reception
How have top WRs fared against Chicago? 👀
Jalen Coker - 138 receiving yards, 8 receptions, 2 TDs
Matthew Golden - 123 receiving yards, 7 receptions
Christian Watson - 143 receiving yards, 6 receptions, 2 TDs
• And A.J. Brown’s career numbers vs Chicago?
vs CHI (11/8/20): 101 receiving yards, 4 receptions, 1 TD
vs CHI (12/18/22): 181 receiving yards, 9 receptions
vs CHI (11/28/25): 132 receiving yards, 10 receptions, 2 TDs
The Bears use base personnel on 77.3% of opponents’ plays from 12 or 21 personnel, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.
When Chicago is in base, against those groupings, its defense allows:
• 7.7 yards per play (most in NFL)
• 19.1% explosive play rate (highest)
• 51.5% offensive success rate (second-highest)
The Bears secondary, headed by Jaylon Johnson and Malik Muhammad, have each allowed 128 yards in coverage in those situations, tied for the most among CBs.
• Maye’s arm is going to make life difficult for the Bears 💪
Here’s how the Bears rank in that regard against QBs:
• #29 in ADOT (9.0 yards)*
• #28 in deep ball rate (13.7%)
• #31 in deep ball completion percentage (52.0%)*
• #32 in explosive play rate (25+ yard completions, 12.0%)*
• #29 in average longest completon per game (39.5 yards)
• #31 in play action deep ball rate (5.3%)
* = Maye ranks 83rd percentile or better in that category
In Weeks 5 and 6, Maye’s PFF offensive grades (93.2 vs Raiders and 92.1 vs Jets) are #1 overall among QBs.
• Maye is heating up at exactly the right time 🔥
The QB is the gateway to a receiver’s production and efficiency, and there hasn’t been one better than Maye since Week 4.
• #1 in passing TDs (10)
• #1 in total TDs (11)
• #1 in total yards (1st)
• #1 in sack percentage (1.9%)
• #1 in go-ahead passing TDs (5)
• #2 in passing yards per attempt (8.5)
• #2 in team points per game (33.3)
Not to mention no QB has more deep passing yards (caught 20+ yards from scrimmage) this season than Maye with 439.
• Some more numbers on Maye’s deep balls 📊
Since Week 4, passes of 20+ air yards per PFF:
• Attempts - 16 (fourth-most)
• Completion percentage - 56.3% (fourth-highest)
• TD-INT - 5-0 (highest)
• Big-time throws - 10 (most)
• Turnover-worthy plays - 0 (tied-fewest)
Between Weeks 1 and 3, Maye’s TD-INT ratio was 0-4 🤯
Maye’s QBR since Week 4 is 90.9 - a number as good as that over a three-game stretch has only been posted 44 times in the last TWO DECADES.
Overall in 2026, he still ranks #1 in deep pass completions (14) and deep passing yards (487).
• Stars can’t shine without darkness ⭐
Brown’s Patriots career hasn’t gone to plan to date - picking up an injury early on debut and underperforming on his return against the Jets.
He’s widely regarded as one of the strongest characters in the NFL - and those reframe obstacles as learning opportunities.
Brown made franchise history vs NYJ with the most drops (4) by a receiver in a single game. Three catches from ten targets.
His response? “We’ll see you guys on Thursday night. Put this to bed really fast. It’s over. I’m going to flush it.”
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