Jm

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin is the lead market signal I’m watching while BTC tests its current structure, nearby support, and the levels that would confirm either continuation or a deeper reset. I’m focused on price, momentum, and confirmation instead of reacting to one isolated move.

I’m using Ethereum and the broader altcoin market for context through ETH support, dominance, rotation, and watchlist momentum. I’m treating each setup as a conditional scenario rather than a complete trade plan.

I’m also tracking DXY, USDJPY, EURUSD, S&P Futures, Gold, BNB across the macro, crypto, Club, and YouTube watchlists. I’m keeping every idea tied to the support, resistance, momentum, and confirmation evidence in the charts.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
04:21 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk
11:24 USDJPY Momentum Tests Yen Support
14:46 VIX Signals a Buy-the-Dip Zone Is Approaching
16:49 Gold Tests Historical Resistance as Metals Strengthen
23:50 TBO Breakouts Signal Bullish Continuation
28:52 BNB Pullback to the Fast Line Signals an Entry
31:11 ADA Cardano Fast-Line Bounce Targets Resistance
33:39 FET DCA Dip Levels Lower Break-Even Risk
38:20 Club Picks: Palantir Bearish Consolidation
42:10 Aerodrome and Altcoin Pullback Signals Bounce Risk

[Jm @JM_CTO]

@MooninPapa Can you please do a analysis of the stock https://t.co/2XeSHisapq / SIVEF.

[Jm @JM_CTO]

@NVIDIAGeForce #RTXPowersPlay

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC has been grinding through a bear market since it topped at $126,000 back in October 2025, and I keep getting asked the same question: has Bitcoin actually bottomed? So today I'm setting the daily update aside to walk through ten on-chain indicators from GlassNode and answer that properly, because I don't want anyone buying into apathy just because price feels beaten down.

I went through ASOPR, the long-term holder NUPL, MVRV ratio, MVRV Z-score, NUPL, the Puell multiple, realized total ratio, realized price, percent supply in profit, and the seller exhaustion constant, and every single one of them flashed unanimous capitulation at the last four cycle bottoms. Right now only two of ten are flashing that signal, percent supply in profit and seller exhaustion, which tells me stress is real but broad capitulation isn't here yet. The drawdown confirms it too: we're sitting around 54% off the highs while 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 bottomed at 92%, 84%, 83%, and 77% respectively, so there's still real room to fall before this matches prior cycle lows.

I've been saying 2025 was our top year and 2026 is the bottom year for a reason, and none of this changes that call. My lower target for BTC remains 49,000, sitting just below the realized price near 53,000, and that's the zone I'm watching for real accumulation. Until more of these indicators converge, I don't believe the bottom is in yet, but when it does hit, I've already laid out the accumulation game plan, and the Better Traders Club gets all of this analysis first.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Bottom Signals Await Confirmation
02:04 Bitcoin Indicators Define Capitulation Risk
04:19 Market ASOPR Signals Capitulation Risk
07:09 Market MVRV Nears Capitulation Risk
09:31 Market Realized Ratio Signals More Downside
11:39 Market Profit Supply Signals Bottom Risk
13:44 Bitcoin Bottom Signals Await Confirmation
15:59 Bitcoin Cycle Risk Rejects Different Claims
18:03 Bitcoin Drawdown Signals More Downside
20:04 Bitcoin Drawdown Points to Lower Target

Check out the site in the video here: https://t.co/bXq2o5unbN

[Jm @JM_CTO]

@MooninPapa can you do an analysis of base:0x696f9436b67233384889472cd7cd58a6fb5df4f1

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin is closing red today, right below support, and we've now pierced below the cloud a second time, which is predictive price action telling me lower prices are coming. The macro trend is still bearish, the TBO slow line is angling down, and I'm watching my support steps as the next targets: first the 60,182 to 61,300 zone, then just below 60K, then a break of 57,800 that sends us down toward 49,000. I'm not ruling out a flash crash below 40,000 either, since the market has surprised everyone before, but even a drop to 49K would be one of the weakest pullbacks in Bitcoin's history based on the prior 84% and 77% drawdowns.

Ethereum lost short-term support and keeps failing to push through TBO resistance, and on-balance volume is curling down just like it did before the last leg lower. Stablecoin dominance hasn't closed above the cloud yet, but I'm expecting it to soon, and I'm watching for a TBO open long as the green light for the next pullback across crypto. The Totally Yes chart, which represents the whole market cap excluding stablecoins, is closing below support today too, and that's about as strong a bearish signal as you can get for the entire space, even while individual coins do their own thing.

On the macro side, DXY closed up slightly with no real reaction to the CPI print, and I'm watching for it to tag the fast line at 100.255 before deciding if it rejects lower or breaks higher, which would be bad for stocks and Bitcoin. USDJPY is still the most important chart to me, and the Goldilocks scenario is a wick up to the fast line followed by a drop below 155.025, which lines up with why I think the US is working closely with Japan to avoid a repeat of the 2024 yen carry unwind crash. S&P Futures RSI is putting in lower highs while VIX is sliding toward TBL support at 13.35, which I think marks a local top before a bit of a speed bump.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
04:28 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk
07:17 Bitcoin Dominance Recovery Signals Support a Bounce
10:36 TRUMP Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
14:43 S&P Futures and Equity Risk
19:21 Gold Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk
23:51 BNB and TRUMP Parabolic RSI Raises Exhaustion Risk
26:49 Curve Bullish Consolidation Awaits Confirmation
31:25 ISRG Bullish Consolidation Awaits Confirmation
34:56 FET Bullish Consolidation Awaits Confirmation
40:00 SpaceX Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line
43:12 YouTube Picks and Market Risk Signals

[Jm @JM_CTO]

@MooninPapa Can you please do a analysis of the stock AI “c3 AI”

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin remains the lead market signal as BTC tests its current structure, nearby support, and the levels that would confirm either continuation or a deeper reset. The update keeps the focus on price, momentum, and disciplined confirmation instead of reacting to a single move.

Ethereum and the broader altcoin market add context through ETH support, dominance, rotation, and watchlist momentum. Each setup is framed around conditions and risk so isolated chart signals are not mistaken for a complete trade plan.

DXY, currency pairs, equity futures, volatility, and commodities provide the macro backdrop for the later crypto and stock watchlists. The update keeps each segment tied to the market evidence presented in the source.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Price Structure Awaits Confirmation
14:30 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk
18:00 Stablecoin Dominance and Crypto Rotation
20:18 EURUSD Price Structure Awaits Confirmation
22:36 Oil and Commodity Signals
28:25 LINK and Altcoin Watchlist Risk
31:24 Solana Support and Seller Pressure
36:02 Hudson and Circle Divergence Builds Against Price Momentum
40:25 Cardano and NEAR Divergence Builds Against Price Momentum
44:59 ISRG Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk
49:39 STRK Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC closed red on Thursday, down 0.53%, but held above short-term overhead resistance for a second confirmed day, keeping the bullish case alive as long as price stays above the 63,521 level. RSI (length 7) shot up to 58.23 midweek before pulling back Thursday, echoing the last two times this level was pierced, both of which preceded significant pullbacks. Ethereum also defended its short-term support but slipped 0.25%, remaining trapped below TBO resistance at 1929.48; RSI ticked up to 57.26 but on-balance volume crossed below its moving average, and with four pierces plus a test of resistance since the start of the month, a breakdown looks increasingly likely. ETH/BTC bounced off the cloud but RSI and on-balance volume both point to fading momentum, while Bitcoin dominance climbed toward the top of its cloud to 59.42% and Ethereum dominance edged higher on weakening RSI, leaving stablecoin dominance coiled just below a potential breakout.

On the TradFi side, DXY bounced 0.28% off support, though the TBO support and resistance levels have shifted sharply higher this week, a sign of strong new pivots forming, with 100.465 as today's target on the fast line. USDJPY closed green as the yen dropped, confirming a bullish RSI reset that raises concern the yen could grind back toward 163 if Bank of Japan and U.S. intervention efforts keep failing, while the Euro closed lower on bearish RSI divergence near the 1.16 target. S&P Futures closed red slightly after a 6.52% run over five candles, with TBO support as today's pullback target, while the Nikkei broke above short-term resistance and Hang Seng was rejected at the 786 level, falling 1.4% into a bearish RSI divergence. Commodities stayed active: oil jumped 4.3% on Middle East headlines, gold pushed 4% above resistance and is closing in on its weekly fast line, and copper, platinum, and uranium all confirmed fresh breakout or close-short signals.

The back half of the show shifted to club and YouTube chart requests, starting with Humanity's flip from support to resistance and an early TBO bullish divergence on Trump. Altcoins stayed mixed, with Lighter and River ripping higher while Cardano extended a five-day overbought streak, and XRP, Solana, and Sui all trading down toward make-or-break support levels the host is watching for a bounce or breakdown. The episode closed with stock picks including ServiceNow, Micron, Palantir, SpaceX, Oracle, and SAP, alongside reminders about the Better Traders club, the Better Traders Journal, and Phemex before signing off.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Market Structure and Key Levels
07:19 USDJPY and Yen Market Structure
09:51 S&P Futures and Equity Risk
12:56 Gold and Commodity Signals
16:18 LINK and Altcoin Watchlist Risk
19:56 PUMP and Crypto Watchlist Setups
24:44 XRP and SUI Support Tests
27:29 FET and Altcoin Trade Setups
30:22 STRK and Altcoin Trade Setups
34:30 Ampex and Stock Watchlist Setups
43:30 Closing Video and Sign-Off

[Jm @JM_CTO]

@MooninPapa Can you please do an analysis of the stock SIVEF “sivers semiconductors AB”

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC closed up 0.87% and reclaimed short-term support, but the slow line still points down and keeps the broader structure bearish. RSI responded more strongly than expected while volume remains below average, so another pullback toward 62K to 61,300 is still on the table. Ethereum bounced 2% into TBO resistance without losing short-term support, while ETH/BTC and on-balance volume continue to lean bearish.

DXY is retreating toward support, USDJPY remains deeply oversold below the daily cloud, and S&P Futures are pausing after a sharp six-percent run. SpaceX, Tesla, the Dow, and broader equity indices add context to the risk picture. Gold broke out alongside silver and platinum, copper printed a fresh all-time high, and PAXG cleared its cloud and short-term resistance.

Viewer picks include bullish-reversal setups in BNB, PUMP, Uniswap, and ARM, while Solana, Stellar Lumens, Morpho, and Circle remain structurally weak. Hut, Uber, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, RHM, and other stock charts show a mix of open gaps and TBO signals to watch into next week. The closing outlook remains cautious, with a historically red August still favored until stronger confirmation appears.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Support and Market Structure
03:21 Ethereum Support and Momentum
08:40 USDJPY and Yen Market Structure
12:41 SpaceX and Equity Market Context
16:53 Silver and Commodity Breakouts
22:40 BNB and Viewer Crypto Picks
26:23 UNI and DeFi Trade Setups
37:09 Bitcoin Cash and Altcoin Setups
41:20 STRK and Altcoin Trade Setups
54:12 Red August Closing Outlook

[Jm @JM_CTO]

@MooninPapa Can you please do a analysis of the stock Inflection, ticker INFQ 🙏

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC remains below the TBO cloud after the weekend rebound failed to reclaim it, while the slow line has started turning down and nearby support has already broken. The next downside references are 61,303 and the sub-60K zone, with the weekly bearish engulfing candle reinforcing the risk of a faster move lower. Ethereum is still in bullish consolidation above 1,850, but its TBT bearish divergence, ETH/BTC weakness, rising stablecoin dominance, and bearish broader-market structure keep the short-term outlook defensive.

DXY is at its most oversold reading since January while EURUSD approaches 1.16, creating a major cross-market inflection. USDJPY confirmed a strong bearish break below its cloud, and a loss of 155.025 would keep the cascade toward 139 in play even as the yen becomes deeply oversold. S&P Futures still look vulnerable to another flush, while gold, silver, and PAXG/BTC provide the main commodity and defensive-market context.

The watchlists focus on resistance-led short setups and bearish consolidation across Cardano, Algorand, AAVE, NEAR, ENA, PEPE, PUMP, Pendle, SUI, and other community picks. The stock section reviews Netflix, Oracle, uranium, and quantum names against their broader bearish trends. The recurring lesson is to avoid chasing weekend strength, use failed support as resistance, take profits methodically, and stay disciplined as the red-August thesis develops.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Bearish Shift and TBO Cloud
03:09 Bitcoin Bear Market Targets and Weekly Engulfing
06:00 ETH/BTC Divergence and Stablecoin Dominance
09:14 Top Ten Dominance and Crypto Market Weakness
12:22 DXY Oversold Signal and Currency Market Impact
15:07 USDJPY Cascade and Yen Oversold Risk
18:01 Nikkei Equity Reaction and Cross-Market Risk
21:06 Better Traders Community Resources and August Watchlist
24:13 Altcoin Short Setups for Cardano and Algorand
27:14 AAVE Bearish Consolidation and Support
30:32 Altcoin Short Setups for NEAR, ENA and Kaito
33:16 Altcoin Weakness Across PEPE, PUMP and Pendle
36:28 Altcoin Risk Across SUI, BANK and META
39:08 Netflix, Oracle and Stock Trade Setups
42:30 Red August Outlook and Final Market Strategy

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin remains the lead market signal as BTC tests its current structure, nearby support, and the levels that would confirm either continuation or a deeper reset. The update keeps the focus on price, momentum, and disciplined confirmation instead of reacting to a single move.

Ethereum and the broader altcoin market add context through ETH support, dominance, rotation, and watchlist momentum. Each setup is framed around conditions and risk so isolated chart signals are not mistaken for a complete trade plan.

DXY, currency pairs, equity futures, volatility, and commodities provide the macro backdrop before the final risk review. The closing section returns to position sizing, defensive planning, and waiting for time and price to confirm the next move.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 BTC Bearish Structure and 57K Target
03:43 Ethereum Capitulation Volume and Support
06:21 Bitcoin 53K Trigger and Dominance Rotation
09:54 NASDAQ, Tesla and August Risk
13:17 KOSPI Bearish Transition and Crude Oil
15:22 Gold and PAXG Strength
18:13 XRP Market-Cap Ceiling and Viewer Requests
21:20 OPEN Bearish Breakdown and Support
24:53 Injective Support and Accumulation Levels
28:16 Morpho and Stacks Support Risks
31:43 TBO Breakdown and Support Risk
33:52 STABLE, AAVE and PEOPLE Weakness
36:37 Stock Risk: Intel and Oracle
39:59 Stock Levels: HIMS and Robinhood

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC is at a decision point after Tuesday’s push above resistance. A move through 67K would put the cloud near 70K in view, while the bearish RSI reset keeps the ascending-support area around 64,417 on the downside map. July seasonality and the valid four-hour breakouts leave room for another push, but this is not a market to chase blindly.

Ethereum has held up better than BTC, yet the chart is approaching resistance and signs of exhaustion are building. Stablecoin dominance confirmed an open short, Bitcoin dominance confirmed an open long, and the ETH, SOL, and OTHERS dominance charts add important context for how any next move could rotate through the market.

DXY, USDJPY, and S&P Futures set the macro backdrop: a DXY bearish-divergence setup could support risk assets, USDJPY remains stretched near a major historical pivot, and S&P Futures are still consolidating. The update also covers the day’s crypto and stock watchlist, from Ondo, ETHFI, SOL, and ENA to Nvidia, Coinbase, and Palantir.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 BTC: Breakout Target, RSI Reset and July Window
02:21 Ethereum and Crypto Dominance Signals
07:52 DXY, USDJPY, S&P Futures and TradFi Setup
12:28 KOSPI, Oil, Gold, Silver and Uranium
15:00 PAXG/BTC, TBO, Club, Phemex and AFX
19:32 Altcoin Watchlist: Ondo Through VVV
24:16 Bearish Altcoin Setups: Hype, PUMP, JUP and More
28:41 Community Crypto Picks: AVAX, AAVE, ICP and More
33:08 Community Stock Picks: NBIS Through INTU
44:03 Closing Strategy and Sunday Video

[Office of Nuclear Energy | US Department of Energy @GovNuclear]

The future of nuclear energy in the U.S. is bright. 💡

[Jm @JM_CTO]

@DemonsTube @grok is this AI

[Jm @JM_CTO]

@NVIDIAGeForce GeForce Season

[Ethereum @ethereum]

Today marks 3 years since The Ethereum Merge.