JQ

an econometrician who studies and teaches macro and investment.

[JQ @JQinsight]

A good graph that illuminates what is happening in the oil market. The recent oil-in-transit rebound is due to longer trips, which are required for switching from ME oil to NA oil. We don't have more oil. Has become less efficient. Must be SPR feeding the rebound.

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

Oil on water in million barrels (Vortexa) #OOTT

[JQ @JQinsight]

@staunovo The rebound of oil in transit is due to the longer trips that are required for switching from ME oil to NA oil. The system does not have more oil. It has become less efficient.

[JQ @JQinsight]

Some moment.

[Farnoosh Amirshahi @farnoosh_a]

این اون لحظه‌ای است که عباس عراقچی وارد اتاق مذاکره شد،به شهباز شریف چیزی گفت و بعد اتاق را ترک کرد.چهره نخست‌وزیر پاکستان تغییر کرد،جی‌دی‌ونس از اون ته حواسش بود.هیئت ایرانی نمی‌خواست با طرف آمریکایی،اونم در بالاترین سطح بعد از ۴۷ سال،دست بده و عکس بگیره.منم یک نفس حرف زدم البته

[JQ @JQinsight]

@HFI_Research Data source?

[JQ @JQinsight]

A better explanation might be that the oil carry trade (short front-end, long back-end) is in full force.

[JQ @JQinsight]

The WTI futures curve remains in backwardation.
But it has flattened a lot recently. This may indicate that hedging pressure at the far end is declining, as oil companies cut high‑cost drilling operations amid falling oil prices.

[JQ @JQinsight]

The MOU is useful for the WH to manipulate the oil price. The 60-day term also makes the MOU acceptable for Iran, since it would take tankers around 60 days to return to the Gulf to load oil. The Strait is still Iran's leverage.

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

I think what is lost to everyone is an MOU is a memorandum of understanding, its not "a deal" It is an agreement to continue talks within a frame work for another 60 days

[JQ @JQinsight]

The crowd behavior is reinforced by the decline of the futures price. Others are all waiting for the re-opening of the Strait, expecting to buy at even lower prices. It takes personal risk to decide to buy now. The question is, would the dream come true for the crowd?

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Some wild stuff and kudos to Morgan Stanley's oil team for having lucid thoughts amidst the chaos.

[JQ @JQinsight]

@VonburyResearch Bears are carry traders. Bulls are big shorts. Ever since 2009, carry wins. This time, the judge is still out.

[JQ @JQinsight]

@sam_gatlin Bullish for oil stocks.

[JQ @JQinsight]

It is wise for the Iranian leadership to reach an agreement with the US, despite objections from the hardliners. Before the agreement, Iran was fighting against the US and Israel. Now the only opponent is Israel, which will be pressured by the US to stop its expansionism. A truly strategic win for Iran.

[JQ @JQinsight]

It is wise for the Iranian leadership to reach an agreement with the US, despite objections from the hardliners. Before the agreement, Iran was fighting against the US and Israel. Now the only opponent is Israel, which will be pressured by the US to stop its expansionism. A truly strategic win for Iran.

[JQ @JQinsight]

The pace of the US SPR drawdown peaked in the week of May 15. Is this deceleration intentional or a result of physical constraints? @IliaBouchouev @CommodMkt @HFI_Research

[JQ @JQinsight]

@JeffWeniger Nice graph. Interesting that almost every president waged war, and almost every one had to draw on SPR.

[JQ @JQinsight]

The lower oil price, the faster inventory drawdown, and the closer we get to a melt-up for oil and petrochemicals.

[JQ @JQinsight]

Demand destruction (due to price increase) is not the same thing as weakened demand (due to non-price factors such as the rise of EV). The former moves along the demand curve. The latter shifts the curve. The report fails to differentiate between the two concepts.

[Rystad Energy @RystadEnergy]

While all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz, the bigger challenge is forming in 2027. Rystad Energy's latest crude oil balance report: 5 million bpd oversupply forecast for 2027. Read now. https://t.co/VX31PY7TYe

[JQ @JQinsight]

@econ_713 Indeed.

[JQ @JQinsight]

Then the oil futures tumbled. Is there anything dumber than this?

[Afshin Rattansi @afshinrattansi]

On this Taco Thursday, Trump says he believes Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal, promising that the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices will drop like a rock.

There’s room for some optimism that Trump’s daft war is ending, however Iran is dismissing all of Trump’s claims and vows to stick to its red lines.

Is Trump lying to keep the stock market afloat? Or has Iran really agreed to a deal?

Someone is lying.

[JQ @JQinsight]

@Glenn_Diesen Hope that the real Bully of the Middle East will be dead.

[JQ @JQinsight]

@ekwufinance Great analogy. A normal human has around 5L blood (stock). If he loses a small amount, say less than 750ml, he can live on as usual. If he, due to the complacent thought that he still has 4250ml (seems abundant) to draw upon, continues to lose blood, he'll be in danger.