๐ JR Racing Tips
Built from spreadsheets, stats & obsession
๐ Ratings-driven horse racing analysis
๐ฅ Finding value where the market misses
๐ฆ๐บ Australian Th
@JackJHavoc@mrwplumbing Let me know if either of you want to see it, free of any charges no strings. I use the model as a starting point for my form, vthe numbers that it produces is not a be all and end all.
Fair comment mate.
To be honest, I was a bit dubious when the model spat out $1.34 as well, which is exactly why I posted it. It wouldโve been easy to leave it out and only show the ones that fit the narrative.
The goal of the model isnโt to match the market โ if it did that thereโd be no edge. The objective is to identify horses where the model believes the market may have them priced incorrectly and then assess whether thereโs value there.
A $1.34 rating doesnโt mean the horse wins every time, and one result doesnโt really tell us much either way. The only thing that matters is whether the model can find value and outperform the market over a large sample.
Still plenty of tweaking and learning to do, but I thought this runner was actually a good example to share because it shows the modelโs opinion, not just the winners.
Finished just behind Long Leaf Service last time we backed it. Really like how this horse hit the line in that race. Long Leaf Service has since come out and won again on the weekend.