JR2

Husband, Father, Christian, Conservative

[✭Five Tool Texas✭ @FiveToolTexas]

Good luck finding that one 🌳

@RecruitMETx 2028 Holden's Charlie Randolph (@Charlie_Rand7) crushes this ball into the trees for a 3-run home run. #FiveToolPower

Memorial (TX) 2028 #uncommitted

Profile: https://t.co/Ia0nPLTjXQ

[JR2 @JRando12]

@Alex_Oloyede2 Looks like a Texas high school drill team. And just about as intimidating.

[JR2 @JRando12]

@libsoftiktok Dude has lived his entire life just one spit ball away from being blind in both eyes.

[JR2 @JRando12]

@grok @jeldonmusic @MChvany @SuperWokedad @Acyn @grok this is grossly underestimated. According to https://t.co/7xUoNOMKw6 they received $161.7 billion in FY 2022.

[JR2 @JRando12]

@grok @jeldonmusic @MChvany @SuperWokedad @Acyn @grok how much did LA County receive in federal aid in 2022?

[MeliAndee @meliandee]

Actually @grok this is a response you gave me which seems to not support your statement that it definitely impaired forecasts:

The claim that the National Weather Service’s (NWS) inaccurate prediction of the July 2025 flash flood at Camp Mystic, Texas, was due to funding and staffing cuts has been raised, but the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. Here’s a breakdown based on available information:

**Claims About Funding Cuts:**
- Some sources, including posts on X and news reports, attribute the NWS’s forecasting issues to staffing and budget cuts implemented by the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in 2025. These cuts reportedly reduced NOAA’s workforce by nearly 600 employees and led to a ~30% funding reduction for the NWS, impacting staffing at local offices like the Austin/San Antonio Weather Forecast Office, which oversees Kerr County.
- The cuts resulted in some NWS offices halting 24/7 operations and reducing weather balloon launches, which are critical for collecting data on humidity, pressure, and temperature needed for accurate forecasts. The Austin/San Antonio office reportedly had six vacancies across its teams, though it’s unclear how many were directly due to DOGE cuts.

**Counterarguments and Context:**
- Some meteorologists and officials dispute the claim that the cuts directly caused the inaccurate forecast. Alan Gerard, former director at NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory, stated that the Austin/San Antonio office “did a solid job” communicating risks, and Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza found no initial evidence that staffing or budget cuts played a role in the tragedy.

- The NWS did issue timely warnings, including a flood watch days in advance and urgent alerts early on July 4, though the rapid onset of the flood (a 1-in-100-year event with 6.5 inches of rain in three hours) may have limited the ability to act on them effectively, especially at night.

- The Guadalupe River’s history of flash flooding, combined with the region’s terrain and Camp Mystic’s location in a FEMA-designated “special flood hazard area,” suggests that the camp’s vulnerability and the storm’s intensity were significant factors, regardless of forecast accuracy.

**Critical Analysis:**
- While funding cuts likely strained NWS operations, there’s no conclusive evidence that they directly caused the underprediction of rainfall at Camp Mystic. The storm’s extreme intensity and rapid development may have been difficult to predict precisely, even with full staffing, due to the inherent challenges of forecasting hyperlocal events.
- The timing of warnings (middle of the night) and the lack of a local warning system in Kerr County, as noted by official Rob Kelly, likely compounded the issue.
- Posts on X claiming a direct link between cuts and the tragedy reflect public sentiment but lack verified data to confirm causation. These should be treated as inconclusive without further evidence.

**Conclusion:**
The NWS’s underestimation of the rainfall that led to the Camp Mystic flood may have been influenced by staffing and budget cuts, which reduced forecasting resources, but there’s no definitive proof that these cuts were the primary cause. The rapid, extreme nature of the storm, the region’s flood-prone geography, and the timing of warnings likely played significant roles. For a deeper investigation, I’d need specific data on the Austin/San Antonio office’s operational capacity at the time or more detailed NWS forecast models, which aren’t publicly available here. If you want, I can search for additional sources or analyze related posts on X for more context—let me know!

[JR2 @JRando12]

@grok @odentex @AnnaBeaming @amclark33 @RPinthehousenow @TrueFactsStated @elonmusk @grok You are missing an evidentiary link. Where is the evidence that generally reduced weather balloon launches and the impaired data models specifically led to this underestimated forecast? Do you have info that fewer weather balloons specifically affected this forecast?

[✭Five Tool Texas✭ @FiveToolTexas]

Here's a look at @RecruitMETx Holden's Charlie Randolph on the mound. The RHP tossed 5 scoreless innings and racked up 9K in the process.

Memorial (TX) 2028 #uncommitted

Profile: https://t.co/Ia0nPLTjXQ

[JR2 @JRando12]

@bofrench Some people don’t get Jesse’s humor I guess. Check the flag dude.

[JR2 @JRando12]

@ManoForStateRep What impact does this have on SBISD getting Robin Hooded so hard that it has to pass extra bonds to update some of the oldest sports venues in the state? Any fix for that?

[JR2 @JRando12]

@LeaderJohnThune Permanent current tax rates? How about lower? I swear, nobody snatches defeat out of the jaws of victory like our current Republican congressmen.

[JR2 @JRando12]

@DefiyantlyFree With approximately 100 million actual tax payers in the US, can each of us get our $27,000 cut of that back?

[JR2 @JRando12]

You good with this @ManoForStateRep?

[Brian Harrison @brianeharrison]

🚨Breaking : DEMOCRAT named Speaker Pro Tem of the (GOP dominated) Texas House.

[JR2 @JRando12]

@johnrich Steve Williams from Midsouth “Wrastlin”.

[JR2 @JRando12]

@CodyforTexas If “all hat, no cattle” had a face…

[JR2 @JRando12]

@PaulDysonTX Another gaslighter that thinks his conservative base is stupid. Just like @ManoForStateRep and @StanGerdesforTX.

[JR2 @JRando12]

Explain this @ManoForStateRep

[Brandon Waltens @bwaltens]

WATCH: Texas House Democrats are celebrating after new rules give them even more power than before #txlege

[JR2 @JRando12]

This is what you were bragging about @ManoForStateRep?

[Janis Holt @JanisHolt59]

At 4:20am this morning, a 232-page rules package (HR4) dropped into my email. This last minute “Pelosi-style”rules package had one goal: create a new path of power for Democrats while placating the grassroots with “no Democrats chairs”. Pages 67-69 clearly redefine the power structure and give Democrats the ability, once again, to kill our good conservative legislation. This is unacceptable and is reflected in my journal vote and statement.