Vishal | Vardhan.

Umar bhar gaalib yahi bhuul krta raha, dhuul research pe thi aur portfolio saaf krta raha😊Not sebi registered!Small & Microcap investor by heart❤️Educaton only

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

It all started with the COVID vaccine shots.
I can feel a shift in human behaviour globally ever since. If you try to connect the patterns.

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Einstein skipped WW3 but gave prediction about World War 4

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Energy
Crude Oil
Food
Coal
Fertiliser
Iron Steel
All will go up as Yields goes up.

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Have been talking a lot about crude oil risks that was irritating my audience, as a long term investor you should always focus on long term trends. And long term trend is of Hard Assets, simply projecting bullish views for moral support when you already know there are chances of

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Europe is clearly preparing for a higher-security-risk environment:
🇺🇸 US says it reached a deal on Greenland’s security
🇫🇷 Macron warns of intensifying Russian hybrid threats
🇬🇧 UK urging households to prepare for major emergencies
🇩🇪 Germany preparing hospitals for potential

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

BREAKING🚨
Saudi Aramco stops crude supplies to India. Here's why oil could get costlier.
Invest in crude oil producers in India, except ongc.

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Brent crude oil is positive
WTI crude oil is negative that too 4% down
International supply is disrupted while US crude oil production is fine, this means more crude chemicals will be required. Focus on crude chem companies.

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Fed hiked 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, here are the impact on asset class:

🟡 Gold: Mixed: higher-for-longer rates/DXY/yields are negative, but inflation + geopolitical risk + fiscal concerns support gold

🟡 Silver: More vulnerable than gold to hawkish Fed because of higher real

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Market reaction neutral to negative as most of the things are already priced in, some are getting done now:
Gift Nifty at day low, broken yesterday low🔻
S&P500 day low, turned positive to negative🔻
Gold is down towards 4100$🔻
USDINR above 96 now
Dollar index giving breakout,

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Antelopus Selan Energy ltd
15% up🔥🔥🔥
My favourite crude oil theme, holding from 600 initial buy, bought till 800.
Not a buy sell recommendation.

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd and Jindal drilling🔥
2 bhai, dono tabahi🔥
Not a buy sell recommendation.

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Markets have already discounted scenario 2 and to some extent 3 at-least in Indian equity markets, anything normal, neutral will have a positive impact. But then there is a BOJ event, so from day after tomorrow we will have peace.
Stay tuned tonight 11:30pm.

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Best case and Worst case scenario:

🟢 1. Fed +25 bps, dovish guidance

Most bullish outcome for risk assets:
Gold: ↔️ / 🟢
Silver: 🟢
Equities: 🟢
Indian equities: 🟢
Smallcaps: 🟢🟢
Bonds: 🟢
USD: 🔴
Crude oil: 🟢 / ↔️

🟡 2. Fed +25 bps, neutral guidance

Initial volatility,

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

All gains in last 2 months are wiped out, portfolio again falling today, being long term investor is curse right now. Even short term investors are not happy, half stop-loss were triggered yesterday, remaining have triggered today.

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Best case and Worst case scenario:

🟢 1. Fed +25 bps, dovish guidance

Most bullish outcome for risk assets:
Gold: ↔️ / 🟢
Silver: 🟢
Equities: 🟢
Indian equities: 🟢
Smallcaps: 🟢🟢
Bonds: 🟢
USD: 🔴
Crude oil: 🟢 / ↔️

🟡 2. Fed +25 bps, neutral guidance

Initial volatility,

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

USDINR
Reversal in few days

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Crude Oil WTI
US OIL
More pain if this channel breaks out, we can expect it to test its All time high, will it make a new All time high, only time will tell us.
You have no idea how cheap commodities are...
#wave3ofWAVE3

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Kismat itni kharab hai ki gold lo toh pta nhi kab import duty se 7-8% usme crackdown aa jaye, usdinr is back to 96, portfolio 5% tak thuuk gye hai logo ke koi bolega nhi public mein.

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

🚨Big Breaking
US 10Year Bond Yield has crossed 2023 high not at 5.025%
Standing near 30 years high of 2007, We are breaking out in bond yields and money will flow out of equity markets to safe assets and at the end in commodities and hard assets. PE derating of Indian markets

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Seeing a new trend of March low, stocks are 50% up from march low, the base has been shifted from 2024 to march low. Similar to what we saw in gdp.
So stocks have now started moving back to march low. What a brutal fall today😕

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

When everyone on Twitter starts posting about bond yields😅😂

[Vishal | Vardhan. @JSilverSurfur]

Crude Oil 6% up🔥
Bond Yields rising again🔥
Gold silver crashing🔻 which is just a temporary pullback anytime bond yields will soften and gold silver will again move up like it did from 3800 and 55$
Portfolio RIP💐
Sab marenge sirf commodity bachega.