Jay Snackler

Co-founded backed by P.P. Ventures, (Acq. by . Seed investor: @pumpkin, @flax, @sesame. Lurk Moar.

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

I’ve been here since 2012. I’ve already made it.
(and lost it, and made it again x1000)
I want you to make it too.
So from the interest I’ve seen briefly in spaces, I’ve decided to start posting as much alphas as humanly possible with ZERO profit motive. Don’t follow me.

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@TheFlowHorse Wow a Maddox reference in the year of our lord 2025.

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@hash_cough @fejau_inc @samuelalpha77 this is how u get a crypto bf. Jealous?

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@hash_cough @fejau_inc Perfect, you should start a DAT. I just started one and I'm buying hella crypto tomorrow (don't tell Fatkins)

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@hash_cough @fejau_inc >Me when I find out crime isn't actually legal

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@hash_cough @fejau_inc You really think the cokehead DATs are just gonna FSH everything like dis when the SEC slaps them on the wrist for telling their mistress they're buying more BTC? Bro this SEC let Richard Heart's case go

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@samuelalpha77 how appropriate!

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@samuelalpha77 What are your thots on rate cuts and fiat, tho?

[LondonCryptoClub @LDNCryptoClub]

So this is the playbook for the Fed tonight and how it plays out over coming weeks

Fed cut 25bps (quite possibly 50bps)

Market chops as we all look at the dots and forecasts forgetting that the previous dots were wrong and quite useless

Then JPow speaks

He’ll note a softer labour market than previously thought, but inflation remains above target and economy generally looks ok but the downside risks to the labour increasing are why they cut

Lots of ink will be spilt on was it a hawkish cut or a dovish cut and which one is bearish or bullish for markets

If we initially knee jerk higher, markets will get levered long at the highs and all get washed out

If we initially knee jerk lower, markets will get levered short at the lows and all get washed out

Everyone chopped up, casino wins

Then things settle down

Calmer heads will note that whilst Labour market clearly soft, economy is slowing not collapsing and in fact recent data suggests still resilient

Inflation sticky but not accelerating

Then we realise that markets are a function of rates and liquidity and the rate environment just got easier

Yields lower and dollar weaker are reflexively positive for risk

The big money then over the next few weeks start to deploy real capital and everything melts up

Funds under positioned risk throw the towel and forced to chase

Bitcoin and broader crypto finally catches up to the risk move and we push to 150k BTC into November, 6k ETH and broader alts all pumping

Bears in despair, bulls “just got lucky”

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

Wrote this in a dm reply, but posting publicly to share my actual thoughts on this:

Right now, link DONs aren't currently set up to settle markets that can't easily medianize the results so they're only starting with defined pricing markets with hard numbers, but I don't expect this to always be the case in the future.

https://t.co/2l6eqZrmgm

^This is one published example of a new oracle consensus approach that uses multiple, redundant LLM interpretations of unstructured data to arrive at an automated oracle conclusion that I think they will likely expand to use in cases like those Zelensky polymarket applications if it works well.

the tldr of this initiative was that chainlink plugged in 3 different LLMs to read, format, and put onchain some unstructured data. In this case it was reading corporate actions paperwork, but the same approach could be applied to use redundant news publications or even image recognition to settle prediction markets.

I think the Chainlink business adoption approach can be kind of confusing from a distance because up until now LINK has intentionally limited their own oracle design in order to maximize security and uptime, building a flawless track record while going after the "easy" stuff like price feeds rather than moving fast and breaking things like their competitors. We've seen multiple UMA oracle disputes already as a result of their design decisions.

However, in my mind there's no reason why Chainlink can't get a bit more adventurous with their DON data formats now that they've demonstrated a secure approach for the structured data stuff. They already kind of have similar redundancies to the "voting oracles' " arbitration process with how chainlink applied their risk management network as a way to monitor and correct any data errors if they arise. We'll see if the link approach to automating as much as possible pays off.

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

Wrote this in a dm reply, but posting publicly to share my actual thoughts on this:

Right now, link DONs aren't currently set up to settle markets that can't easily medianize the results so they're only starting with defined pricing markets with hard numbers, but I don't expect this to always be the case in the future.

https://t.co/2l6eqZrmgm

^This is one published example of a new oracle consensus approach that uses multiple, redundant LLM interpretations of unstructured data to arrive at an automated oracle conclusion that I think they will likely expand to use in cases like those Zelensky polymarket applications if it works well.

the tldr of this initiative was that chainlink plugged in 3 different LLMs to read, format, and put onchain some unstructured data. In this case it was reading corporate actions paperwork, but the same approach could be applied to use redundant news publications or even image recognition to settle prediction markets.

I think the Chainlink business adoption approach can be kind of confusing from a distance because up until now LINK has intentionally limited their own oracle design in order to maximize security and uptime, building a flawless track record while going after the "easy" stuff like price feeds rather than moving fast and breaking things like their competitors. We've seen multiple UMA oracle disputes already as a result of their design decisions.

However, in my mind there's no reason why Chainlink can't get a bit more adventurous with their DON data formats now that they've demonstrated a secure approach for the structured data stuff. They already kind of have similar redundancies to the "voting oracles' " arbitration process with how chainlink applied their risk management network as a way to monitor and correct any data errors if they arise. We'll see if the link approach to automating as much as possible pays off.

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@Purpman123 @Polymarket @samuelalpha77 you don't want to hear @samuelalpha77 's thots

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@fejau_inc @redux_rdx I hear this sort of thing is called a "thesis"

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@mysteriouz_goal Yeah but I smell it

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

Smh it's not even a real blockchain

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@hash_cough Don't worry hash, they'll find the cure for Macro podcasts in our lifetime

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

Gud thred.

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@samuelalpha77 https://t.co/oXXkNxKdk6

[jfab.eth @josefabregab]

Just as @JSnackler said in a recent X Space: Narrative exhaustion is real.

This cycle, real demand won't come from retail, but from institutions.

Big boy money won't bid $XRP, $ADA, or useless tokens from last cycle.

It'll bid $LINK, $AAVE, $ETH & $BTC: Token with utility.

[Jay Snackler @JSnackler]

@0xcarnation @Pickle_cRypto 'the right things'

[⬡⬡⬡J11⬡⬡⬡ @LinkWarLord]

If you don't think $XRP and $LINK are competing then why did Ripple announce their Swell conference at the exact same time and city as Chainlink's Smartcon this year?

Ripple has a history of shadowing SWIFT's Sibos conference as an alternative to the "Old ways" trying to shape the narrative in the early days of Ripple which of course worked on so many of the XRP army.

SWIFT is one of Chainlinks title sponsors this year and after 8 years in the making you better believe something real is getting dropped at Smartcon, Ripple likely knows this or atleast suspects it, they are afraid that Chainlink and SWIFT will dominate the narrative, it will be an insanely large media week and Ripple wants to try get in on the spotlight and not let the narrative get away from them.

It will be a massive couple days for shaping narratives through the media so expect both marketing teams to bring their A games. In the end Substance over narratives will always win, but the war will be fought on many fronts.

In the end we know what happens.
⬣⬣⬣You Just Win ⬣⬣⬣