John T

Dutch citizen, Noord Hollander ...just trying to figure things out

[John T @JTatLife]

'The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they’ve found it' - Sir Terry Pratchett

[John T @JTatLife]

@shashj Something definitely went wrong there, he should at the latest have known when he was briefed to give that statement outlining (very incorrectly, it emerges) the process of how Mandelson got through clearance

[John T @JTatLife]

@APHClarkson At that point Israel would have lost the American left *and* right, opening far more space for Europe to start sanctioning the country helping to wreck our energy & trying to send a million refugees our way.

[John T @JTatLife]

@APHClarkson Vance could pick up the phone and say that if they don't pack it in Trump (and he) will loudly and persistently blame Israel for this fiasco and wreck their image with MAGA.
That would be a very credible threat.

[John T @JTatLife]

@APHClarkson How so? You can see he really, realy *wants* to chicken out, it's just he's finding it difficult to do so, which is a different thing.

[John T @JTatLife]

@dex_eve Given the potential loss of life involved in naval or air assault into a contested environment, they could get to that number quite quickly.

[John T @JTatLife]

@idreesali114 Sure are many possibilities - the US Marines, the US 82nd Arirborne, the US 101st, the US Rangers.....

[John T @JTatLife]

@BretDevereaux @sarcasticSyzygy As I understand it, ships traversing the strait at its narrowest point are basically within ordinary artillery range of the shore, so in principle you could launch a Grad barrage at them, which is not what their systems are designed for at all

[John T @JTatLife]

@KKriegeBlog I find this is the key point. Contemporary state/ military leaders really needed a clear view on who could do what and their archives mostly survive. If their correspondence suggests that they thought someone wsa particularly effective, we should be very slow to dismiss that.

[John T @JTatLife]

@johnb78 Bit shallow and political, rather than clever-stupid. Mostly comparisons were made with Blair, which in retrospect were off-base. (Blair was a political animal - and a warmonger - but had a much more coherent view of what he wanted the UK to be, and clearer red lines)

[John T @JTatLife]

@baunov Yep. “Who cares about the Dutch”
Billions of dollars of Dutch military aid for Ukraine and years of unusually aggressive Dutch diplomacy against Russia later…. It all adds up.

[John T @JTatLife]

@Everything2Win @APHClarkson @Michael_Bachari In the UK alone the the current Mayor of London, the previous First Minster of Scotland and a recent Chancellor (Finance Minister) were practicing Muslims. The previous Prime Minister was a Hindu (so also not loyal to the state religion).

[John T @JTatLife]

@APHClarkson @Michael_Bachari I know from friends' experience that even long term foreign residents of the Gulf states forget that they live in ruthless sectarian autocracies until they run into one of the invisible walls surrounding their 'millet'.
Then they can find out - big time.

[John T @JTatLife]

@APHClarkson @Michael_Bachari I thought it was a really useful reminder that in the minds of both Turkey and Gulf State leaders there are models (including the latters' current ones!) that are both undemocratic and oppressive of minorities but also quite pragmatic and long-term successful (in their eyes)

[John T @JTatLife]

@Michael_Bachari @APHClarkson Given that the Ottomans operated versions of this system for half a millenium, whilst denying practicing non-Muslims any state power, it is not obvious that this is a stepping stone to anywhere.
It'd be a solid upgrade on both Assadism or Islamic fundamentalism, but that's it.

[John T @JTatLife]

@APHClarkson Interesting angle. Not only does it have clear historical precedent in the region, it would also represent (as it did in the past) an alignment between the perceived demands of Islam that form the bedrock of HTS and the commercial pragmatism that they have been touting recently.

[John T @JTatLife]

@Naramsin20 @flying_rodent It may be that things have changed in the last 10 years (some smart people seem to think so) and this won’t happen. But in 2013 every side was at peak homicidal mania, and I never heard anyone explain how intervention wouldn’t generate more murder

[John T @JTatLife]

@duncanrobinson @APHClarkson The fact that this seems to be controversial online suggests that people need to get out more.

[John T @JTatLife]

@Daark_Karma @APHClarkson It seems like that now, but it wasn't that long ago that OMON troops were thought to be needed in huge quantities to keep everyone quiet.
Ethnic Russians might be subservient at the moment, but it's not clear that all the millions of other Russian citizens are.

[John T @JTatLife]

@bencoates1 That's surprisingly, they're usually very picky about not breaking the law. (Veldkamp didn't say he particularly wanted to arrest Netanyahu, he just confirmed black letter law which is that he *has* to arrest Netanyahu under the Rome convention if he comes to NL.)

[John T @JTatLife]

@AdamBienkov Bit surprising that Starmer didn't give the only legally permissible answer under the Rome convention and therefore UK law which is:
"sure, as long as he doesn't mind being arrested the moment his feet touch British ground"