JVP Bets

Tennis Bets - ATP
July:🎾+2.77u

Overall:🎾+4.68u

All bets Tracked -

Trying to beat Pinnacle, one bet at the time

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Gstaad 🇨🇭Collignon (vs. Tsitsipas) @ 2.05 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

Very rare this deep into a tournament I still see value on matchups, but think there is a decent price to get on Collignon getting his first tour-level title here

Collignon has a tendency to get a little bit streaky during games, as also shown this week, but for me there is no doubt that his level on clay is incredibly high when things click. Which it does for the most part when he plays aggresively.

Tsitsipas is in many ways on the other end of the spectrum for me, and I am not at all convinced he has found shades of his old level. I can't justify him being priced as a slight favorite here, based on the opponents he has faced. There simply hasn't been enough tough questions for him to answer yet, and Collignon will bring a lot more to the table than opponents the Greek has faced in previous rounds.

Could see this going 3 sets with each player having a set where they collapse before Collignon cleans it up in the end

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Kitzbühel 🇦🇹Etcheverry (vs. Bublik) @ 2.54 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

No time for a write-up this time around, but line being higher on Etcheverry today than it was on Molcan does not sit right with me

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Los Cabos 🇲🇽 Kwon (vs. Gea) @ 1.81 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

I know there is sentiment that courts are slower than the usual hard-courts at Los Cabos, and that Kwon might struggle more than his record on the surface this year suggests.

The opposition he faced in the qualifiers was far from impressive, but Kwon should be comfortable enough with the conditions now, to not have it work directly against him.

Gea had a great week at the Canadian challenger last week, and in contrast to Kwon comes in with this being his match at the event. I generally like him as a player, but he still has a lot of work to do, and with Kwon playing the way he is at the moment, at the very least the current price is very very solid

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Washington 🇺🇸 Tabilo(vs. Atmane ) @ 2.01 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

Was at 2.24 at one point even, which is insane. Still short on time for write-up, but line has to be taken.

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Added an extra unit at 2.15, refuse to believe this line

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Los Cabos 🇲🇽 Norrie (vs. Kovacevic) @ 1.68 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

Write-up will come later, but can only interpret this as Kovacevic performance last year at the event, impacting price again, Norrie should have a larger edge here…

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✅ Shevchenko gets it done in straights

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Gstaad 🇨🇭Shevchenko (vs. Stricker) @ 1.93 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

Think this is favorable all things considered, and clear bet for me at this price.

Stricker is undoubtedly a big talent, and somewhere a great player is hidden, but his brittle physique has held him back for a long time. His performance against Munar in the previous round shows what he is capable of when playing at a top level, but for me it is far too early to conclude that this is something that can be expected from him round after round

Simply put for me their is less than 50% chance that he can produce this level against Shevchenko, with the inconsistency, physical concerns and sporadic action Stricker has seen over a long stretch of time now. It is less than two weeks since he last retired, and I am not convinced he is here to stay at all yet

Even if he manages to play at his best, Shevchenko is no pushover, even if he has not been performing great this season either. With that being said Shevchenko still has shown from time to time he can deliver a solid ATP-worthy level across matches, and facing someone like Stricker, I see him having the edge more often than not, under the current circumstances.

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Gstaad 🇨🇭Shevchenko (vs. Stricker) @ 1.93 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

Think this is favorable all things considered, and clear bet for me at this price.

Stricker is undoubtedly a big talent, and somewhere a great player is hidden, but his brittle physique has held him back for a long time. His performance against Munar in the previous round shows what he is capable of when playing at a top level, but for me it is far too early to conclude that this is something that can be expected from him round after round

Simply put for me their is less than 50% chance that he can produce this level against Shevchenko, with the inconsistency, physical concerns and sporadic action Stricker has seen over a long stretch of time now. It is less than two weeks since he last retired, and I am not convinced he is here to stay at all yet

Even if he manages to play at his best, Shevchenko is no pushover, even if he has not been performing great this season either. With that being said Shevchenko still has shown from time to time he can deliver a solid ATP-worthy level across matches, and facing someone like Stricker, I see him having the edge more often than not, under the current circumstances.

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Wimbledon 🇬🇧🍓 Bublik (vs. Tiafoe) @ 2.00 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

Just had a small bounce in price, and I believe getting a pure pick-em line here for Bublik is value. No time for huge write-up as we are close to gamestart

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Wimbledon 🇬🇧📷 Tarvet (vs. Rinderknech) @ 2.27 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

No time for write-up as we are close to start, but still see value here for the local

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Wimbledon 🇬🇧🍓 Kwon (vs. Landaluce) @ 2.45 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

Been a while since the last post on the account, but Wimbledon means a return, hopefully with renewed energy. For the first one back, going with Kwon as the slight underdog here against Landaluce.

Kwon has had an extremely weird career to say the least, with the Korean mandatory military-service essentially halting him from playing at all. He only really began playing again at regionally adjacent Challenger-events at the beginning of the year, and his comeback has been quite impressive. 2 of the hard-court titles in recent times had some strong names competing where he only dropped 2 sets across the 2 tournaments

For his transition to grass it took a few matches to get there, but his run in the qualifier was impressive, and it looks like he has been able to get comfortable on the surface after the long break, and ability to produce results once again

Landaluce has played a ton of tennis over the last few months, taking no breaks after the clay-swing and going straight into grass. After starting out decently, his form has taken a turn for the worse. This combined with the fact that he has a tendency to get himself into absolutely insane games both in terms of length and what happens on the court. The match against JM Cerundolo at Roland Garros was an all-timer, but getting into these spots too often is not a good thing.

This is not a fatigue angle, as Landaluce has shown that he is more than capable of going the distance, but a case where the form of the two players is trending in completely opposite directions. I expect an extremely tightly contested game, and I believe the number should be a little better for Kwon coming into his first main-draw of a slam in 2 years

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Stuttgart 🇩🇪 Onclin (vs. Perricard) @ 2.34 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

Have this at a slightly better price personally, but still think there is value to be had here.

I have a very simple principle with Perricard, he simply can never be a large favorite in a match-up given his playstyle. I don't think a huge amount needs to be said about him as a tennis player, but the small margins that decides his games, means that I see decent value on Onclin here.

It is not so much that Onclin has impressed me, but his win against Maroszan in straights, and his overall performance on hard-courts (of course not the same as grass here) shows his ability to play under these circumstances

Perricard somehow survived against Safiullin because he melted down when serving for the match, that he ended up winning in a tie-break, surprise surprise.

With the amount of tie-breaks GMP plays, I believe anything above 2.2 is very generous on an opponent who will also be comfortable on the grass. This combined with the fact that Perricard is not on his best game, and has not been for a while.

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French Open 🇫🇷 Jodar +5.5 (vs. Zverev) @ 1.9 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

When we reach this point for the larger tournaments, I feel like the biggest chances for getting value is gone, and for this one I am obviously extremely biased.

With that being said, once again a case where I feel like the overall moneyline is probably fair, or Zverev should even be a slightly bigger favorite, but the games given to Jodar is too generous for my liking.

Jodar will in all likelihood start with the serve which means this takes 3 clean Zverev sets won with a break at the very least. I am not buying that this is more or less a flip whether it will happen.

If we start with Jodar, he has not played up to his potential looking at the scorelines and level of opponents he has played. Having watched the matches though, it has been evident that both Duckworth, Michelsen and PCB where playing out of their minds for large portions of the game. Whether this is because Jodar was underperforming, being a player that brings out the best in his opponent or just bad luck, I honestly can't tell. Probably a mix of all 3.

He has found a way through everytime, and he has looked fresh even the 5th set, in stark contrast to his opponents who have faltered as games have progressed. Jodar has also shown he is still capable of playing electric tennis, my biggest concern has been his dips in serving quality for some service games.

Zverev has had the complete opposite event so far, and it has been extremely uneventful. Aside from 1 set against Halys that he choked, he has not been challenged significantly. For me it has therefore been extremely difficult to gauge where his level is at, as his opponents simply haven't been sufficiently equipped to challenge him.

Everyone knows that this is Zverev's biggest chance in his career to get that first slam trophy, and now facing an opponent with tons of x-factor and a much higher level than what has come before it will be interesting to see whether the German can keep his cool. Rome was the last time with pressure against Darderi, and he handled that absolutely terrible.
Again seeing this priced as if Jodar will roll over and lose in straight sets just doesn't sit right with me, knowing what is at stake and how Zverev has handled things like this in the past

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✅ What a turnaround from Jodar, his ability to turn it around very impressive

May:🎾-2.23u

Overall:🎾+3.46u

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French Open 🇫🇷 Jodar -5.5 (vs. Busta) @ 1.72 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

Here we go again, with Jodar. Unfortunately don’t have time for the full write-up today, but with Jodar expected to start with the serve and the price drift I see value here

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French Open 🇫🇷 Jodar -5.5 (vs. Busta) @ 1.72 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

Here we go again, with Jodar. Unfortunately don’t have time for the full write-up today, but with Jodar expected to start with the serve and the price drift I see value here

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❌Closed 1.7, Jodar could not deliver even when Michelsen's back injury popped back up. Very happy with closing, all things considered

May:🎾-3.79u

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French Open 🇫🇷 Jodar -6.5 (vs. Michelsen) @ 1.83 - Pinnacle - 1.0u

Yes I admit, I am slightly obsessed with Jodar, but watching him play is just so enjoyable at the moment. I can't say I was disappointed against Duckworth, but had hoped for more. With that out of the way I still see value, and opportunity for some additional movement on the price Jodar's way

Rafael took a nasty fall in the 2nd set TB that ended up costing him the set, and meant that scoreline got a lot closer than it should have been. Jodar also took a medical due to the fall, in the press-conference afterwards he mentioned some pain in his foot, but it seemed to mostly be tied to the fall/slip and nothing more than this. I will also say that Duckworth played extremely well especially on pressure-points. Still with this being said he converted 2 out of 3 BPs while Jodar only converted 6 out of 21.

Jodar is therefore still generating an insane amount of opportunities in his opponents service-games, and I expect this to continue against Michelsen. Michelsen himself also took a medical timeout for his back, and looked physically challenged against Basavareddy towards the end. Ironically he broke straight after the medical, but would be fun to see where this had ended up had this not been the case.

Michelsen spammed stop-balls against Nishesh, because he got plenty of time to line-up these situations up, with Jodar I have a hard time seeing this being the case, and for a player who has been broken 15 times in his last 5 matches this does not bode well